Result
3:1
19/04/2026 at 09:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie D - Group I - Round 32
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 0)
- 23', 1 - 0, ⚽,
- 32', 2 - 0, ⚽,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 61', 3 - 0, ⚽,
- 75', 3 - 1, ⚽,
Chances of winning
Castrumfavara
55.1% | Draw
25.9% | Gela
19% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Castrumfavara has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+18.2%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Castrumfavara's performance.Gela has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15.2%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Gela might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Castrumfavara than the current prediction. (-17.2%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Castrumfavara that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gela than the current prediction. (+14.3%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Gela could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Castrumfavara - Gela Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.64 ↓
(2.44) |
3.49 ↑
(3.13) |
4.74 ↑
(2.64) |
10.7%
(10.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 14 in the zone Serie D ~ Group I (Play Out: ) and 9).
- Castrumfavara is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Gela's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- In this match, Castrumfavara is seen as the favorite.
- In the last 1 head-to-head match, Castrumfavara won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:4.
How many head-to-head matches has Castrumfavara won against Gela?
Castrumfavara has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Gela won against Castrumfavara?
Gela has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Castrumfavara - Gela were as follows:
07.12.2025
Gela
-
Castrumfavara
4:1
Latest results of Castrumfavara
Italian Serie D - Group I Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Savoia | 33 | 19 | 9 | 5 | 60:29 | 31 | 66 |
| 2 | Nissa | 33 | 18 | 10 | 5 | 47:26 | 21 | 64 |
| 3 | Reggina | 33 | 19 | 6 | 8 | 40:21 | 19 | 63 |
| 4 | Athletic Palermo ✔ | 33 | 17 | 6 | 10 | 57:46 | 11 | 57 |
| 5 | Gelbison ✔ | 33 | 16 | 9 | 8 | 43:32 | 11 | 57 |
| 6 | Igea Virtus | 33 | 15 | 13 | 5 | 48:32 | 16 | 53 |
| 7 | Sambiase | 33 | 14 | 11 | 8 | 36:26 | 10 | 53 |
| 8 | Milazzo | 33 | 12 | 8 | 13 | 31:35 | -4 | 44 |
| 9 | Gela | 33 | 13 | 5 | 15 | 41:43 | -2 | 43 |
| 10 | Vigor Lamezia | 33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 39:34 | 5 | 39 |
| 11 | Castrumfavara | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 36:45 | -9 | 37 |
| 12 | Enna | 33 | 8 | 11 | 14 | 48:51 | -3 | 35 |
| 13 | USD Ragusa | 33 | 7 | 13 | 13 | 22:32 | -10 | 34 |
| 14 | AS Acireale | 33 | 7 | 12 | 14 | 37:49 | -12 | 32 |
| 15 | Vibonese | 33 | 7 | 11 | 15 | 31:47 | -16 | 32 |
| 16 | ACR Messina | 33 | 10 | 13 | 10 | 27:33 | -6 | 29 |
| 17 | Sancataldese | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 31:46 | -15 | 29 |
| 18 | Paterno ✔ | 33 | 4 | 7 | 22 | 21:68 | -47 | 19 |
Promotion
Promotion ~ Serie D ~ Group I (Play Offs: )
Serie D ~ Group I (Play Out: )
Relegation
Clinched Spots for Teams
Athletic Palermo is Qualified for Serie D ~ Group I (Play Offs )
Gelbison is Qualified for Serie D ~ Group I (Play Offs )
Paterno is Relegated to
