Result
12/03/2026 at 19:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 5
- Referee: Casagrande L. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | Flow Eventos, Flow Sports |
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 2 |
 Brazil | Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 Ecuador | Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol |
 North-central-america | Flow Sports 1 Caribbean |
 Paraguay | Flow Eventos |
 Uruguay | Flow |
Chances of winning
São Paulo
67.8% | Draw
20.4% | Chapecoense
11.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
São Paulo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)Chapecoense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chapecoense than the current prediction. (-0.2%)
São Paulo - Chapecoense Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.4
(1.4) |
4.68 ↑
(4.38) |
7.94 ↑
(7.58) |
5.3%
(7.5%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for São Paulo - Chapecoense?
Users Predictions:
8 users predict this event. São Paulo will win (votes: 6 - 75%). Chapecoense will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for São Paulo: 45% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. São Paulo (votes: 1 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH -1.5 - Chapecoense (1.72) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 3 high ROI users predict this event. São Paulo (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Chapecoense (votes: 2 - 66.7%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 2.
- São Paulo is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- Chapecoense's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- São Paulo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Recently, São Paulo has had a series of away games.
- In this match, São Paulo is the obvious favorite.
- There will not play in São Paulo: Lucca Marques
(Inactive)
Ryan Francisco
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Chapecoense: Bruno Matias
(Knee Injury)
Mancha
(Knee Injury)
Robert Conceicao
(Inactive)
- We predict that São Paulo will win today's game, with odds of 1.41.
- In the last 14 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 4 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 16:12. (average 1.1:0.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, São Paulo won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:6. (average 1.6:0.9).
How many head-to-head matches has São Paulo won against Chapecoense?
São Paulo has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Chapecoense won against São Paulo?
Chapecoense has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between São Paulo - Chapecoense were as follows:
Latest results of São Paulo
Latest results of Chapecoense
Brazilian Serie A Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Palmeiras | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12:5 | 7 | 10 |
| 2 | Sao Paulo | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6:2 | 4 | 10 |
| 3 | Bahia | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5:3 | 2 | 8 |
| 4 | Flamengo RJ | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6:4 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Coritiba | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7:6 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Fluminense | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5:4 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Athletico-PR | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4:3 | 1 | 7 |
| 8 | Corinthians | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5:5 | 0 | 7 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3:3 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | Gremio | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8:8 | 0 | 6 |
| 11 | Mirassol | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 8:7 | 1 | 6 |
| 12 | Chapecoense-SC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 8:6 | 2 | 5 |
| 13 | Atletico-MG | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7:8 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 | Santos | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8:10 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Vitoria | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5:8 | -3 | 4 |
| 16 | Botafogo RJ | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7:6 | 1 | 3 |
| 17 | Remo | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6:8 | -2 | 3 |
| 18 | Internacional | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3:7 | -4 | 2 |
| 19 | Cruzeiro | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4:11 | -7 | 2 |
| 20 | Vasco | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3:6 | -3 | 1 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
