Result
2:0
12/03/2026 at 19:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 5
- Referee: Casagrande L. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | Flow Eventos, Flow Sports |
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 2 |
 Brazil | Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 Ecuador | Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol |
 North-central-america | Flow Sports 1 Caribbean |
 Paraguay | Flow Eventos |
 Uruguay | Flow |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.47 | 0.57 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 63% | 37% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (397/481) | 73% (207/282) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.47 | 0.57 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 3.10 | 0.42 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 1 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 9 | 2 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 9 | 5 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 6 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 25 | 13 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 13 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (397/481) | 73% (207/282) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 47% (24/51) | 40% (21/52) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 76% (121/159) | 65% (58/89) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 18% (7/38) | 15% (3/20) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.98 | 0.65 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 13 | 32 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 13 | 12 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 55% (6/11) | 43% (3/7) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 42 | 41 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 29 | 48 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 10 | 3 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.42 | 3.10 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.42 | 1.10 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 26', Rafael Carvalheira 🟨,
- 2nd Half (2 - 0)
- 46', Marcinho ↓, Italo ↑,
- 47', 1 - 0, Luciano ⚽, Marcos Antonio (A),
- 60', 2 - 0, Jonathan Calleri ⚽, Bobadilla D. (A),
- 68', Rafael Carvalheira ↓, Joao Vitor ↑,
- 68', Victor Caetano ↓, Rubens Ricoldi ↑,
- 68', Bolasie Y. ↓, Neto Pessoa ↑,
- 81', Bobadilla D. ↓, Pablo Maia ↑,
- 82', Lucas Moura ↓, Cauly ↑,
- 82', Luciano ↓, Andre Silva ↑,
- 82', Jean Carlos ↓, Giovanni Augusto ↑,
- 90+3', Wendell ↓, Bosshardt N. ↑,
- 90+3', Franco A. ↓, Robert Arboleda ↑,
Chances of winning
São Paulo
65.2% | Draw
21.6% | Chapecoense
13.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)Chapecoense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+5.6%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for São Paulo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chapecoense than the current prediction. (-1.5%)
São Paulo - Chapecoense Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.45 ↑
(1.4) |
4.35 ↓
(4.38) |
7.2 ↓
(7.58) |
6%
(7.5%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for São Paulo - Chapecoense?
Users Predictions:
9 users predict this event. São Paulo will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Chapecoense will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for São Paulo: 35.9% – 97.5%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. São Paulo (votes: 1 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- AH -1.5 - Chapecoense (1.72) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. São Paulo (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Chapecoense (votes: 2 - 66.7%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 2.
- São Paulo is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- Chapecoense's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- São Paulo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Recently, São Paulo has had a series of away games.
- In this match, São Paulo is the obvious favorite.
- There will not play in São Paulo: Lucca Marques
(Inactive)
Ryan Francisco
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Chapecoense: Bruno Matias
(Knee Injury)
Mancha
(Knee Injury)
Robert Conceicao
(Inactive)
- We predict that São Paulo will win today's game, with odds of 1.41.
- In the last 14 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 4 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 16:12. (average 1.1:0.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, São Paulo won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:6. (average 1.6:0.9).
How many head-to-head matches has São Paulo won against Chapecoense?
São Paulo has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Chapecoense won against São Paulo?
Chapecoense has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between São Paulo - Chapecoense were as follows:
Latest results of São Paulo
Latest results of Chapecoense
Brazilian Serie A Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Palmeiras | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 23:10 | 13 | 32 |
| 2 | Flamengo RJ | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 24:10 | 14 | 26 |
| 3 | Fluminense | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 23:16 | 7 | 26 |
| 4 | Sao Paulo | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 17:11 | 6 | 23 |
| 5 | Athletico-PR | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 20:15 | 5 | 22 |
| 6 | Bahia | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 17:14 | 3 | 21 |
| 7 | Coritiba | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 15:13 | 2 | 19 |
| 8 | Botafogo RJ | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 24:24 | 0 | 17 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 15:15 | 0 | 17 |
| 10 | Vasco | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 18:19 | -1 | 16 |
| 11 | Gremio | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 15:16 | -1 | 16 |
| 12 | Cruzeiro | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 17:21 | -4 | 16 |
| 13 | Vitoria | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 12:17 | -5 | 15 |
| 14 | Corinthians | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 9:11 | -2 | 15 |
| 15 | Atletico-MG | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 14:19 | -5 | 14 |
| 16 | Internacional | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 12:14 | -2 | 14 |
| 17 | Santos | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 18:21 | -3 | 14 |
| 18 | Mirassol | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 13:18 | -5 | 9 |
| 19 | Remo | 13 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 13:23 | -10 | 8 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-SC | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 12:24 | -12 | 8 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B
