Result
0:1
25/02/2026 at 17:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 4
- Referee: Sampaio W. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 1 |
 Brazil | Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 Ecuador | Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol |
 Kosovo | Arena Premium 2 |
 Mexico | Azteca Deportes, Fanatiz |
 Serbia | Arena Premium 2 |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.84 | 1.33 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 42% | 58% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (285/344) | 86% (424/493) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.84 | 1.33 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.05 | 2.46 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 13 | 3 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 9 | 7 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 9 | 2 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 7 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 20 | 14 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 19 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (285/344) | 86% (424/493) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 53% (27/51) | 56% (39/70) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 71% (54/76) | 70% (71/101) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 35% (6/17) | 25% (4/16) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.54 | 0.51 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 20 | 20 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 5 | 19 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 71% (10/14) | 50% (6/12) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 47 | 38 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 18 | 14 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 5 | 10 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.46 | 0.05 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 1.46 | 0.05 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 33', Tinga ↓, Joao Pedro Chermont ↑,
- 36', Wallisson 🟨,
- 41', Ferreira D. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 46', Ferreira D. ↓, Marcos Antonio ↑,
- 55', Pedro Morisco 🟨,
- 56', Pedro Morisco ↓, Pedro Rangel ↑,
- 57', 0 - 1, Cauly (Penalty Awarded),
- 64', Franco A. 🟨,
- 64', Ferreira ↓, Jonathan Calleri ↑,
- 65', Tapia G. ↓, Lucas Moura ↑,
- 69', Vini Paulista ↓, Lavega J. ↑,
- 69', Josue ↓, Fabinho ↑,
- 69', Wallisson ↓, Willian Oliveira ↑,
- 75', Pablo Maia ↓, Luan Silva ↑,
- 83', Cauly ↓, Bobadilla D. ↑,
- 90+2', Toloi R. 🟨,
- 90+6', Breno Lopes 🟨,
- 90+9', Lavega J. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Coritiba
36% | Draw
30.8% | São Paulo
33.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Coritiba has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Coritiba than the current prediction. (-4.2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+4.9%)
Coritiba - São Paulo Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.66 ↓
(2.9) |
3.06 ↓
(3.1) |
2.84 ↑
(2.48) |
5.5%
(7.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Coritiba - São Paulo?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- DC - São Paulo (1.38) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH 0, 1st Half - Coritiba (1.83) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
São Paulo will win
(14 of 16 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.29% – 100%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): São Paulo will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥈 Silver Tip.Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Coritiba (votes: 2 - 25%). São Paulo (votes: 6 - 75%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Coritiba won 0.
- Coritiba has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- São Paulo is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).
- In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
- There will not play in Coritiba: Benassi
(Inactive)
Gomez S.
(Inactive)
Rodrigo Rodrigues
(Ankle Injury)
- There will not play in São Paulo: Andre Silva
(Knee Injury)
Carlos Coronel
(Inactive)
Ryan Francisco
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Coritiba: Lucas Crepaldi
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in São Paulo: Robert Arboleda
(Inactive)
- In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Coritiba won 4 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 22:26. (average 1.2:1.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, Coritiba won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:11. (average 1.2:1.1).
How many head-to-head matches has Coritiba won against São Paulo?
Coritiba has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has São Paulo won against Coritiba?
São Paulo has won 2 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Coritiba - São Paulo were as follows:
27.09.2023
São Paulo
-
Coritiba
2:1
20.10.2022
São Paulo
-
Coritiba
3:1
Latest results of Coritiba
Latest results of São Paulo
Brazilian Serie A Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Palmeiras | 14 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 24:11 | 13 | 33 |
| 2 | Flamengo RJ | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 26:12 | 14 | 27 |
| 3 | Fluminense | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 23:18 | 5 | 26 |
| 4 | Sao Paulo | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 19:13 | 6 | 24 |
| 5 | Athletico-PR | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 20:15 | 5 | 23 |
| 6 | Bahia | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 19:16 | 3 | 22 |
| 7 | Bragantino | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 17:16 | 1 | 20 |
| 8 | Coritiba | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 16:17 | -1 | 19 |
| 9 | Vitoria | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 16:18 | -2 | 18 |
| 10 | Botafogo RJ | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 25:26 | -1 | 17 |
| 11 | Atletico-MG | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 17:20 | -3 | 17 |
| 12 | Internacional | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 14:14 | 0 | 17 |
| 13 | Vasco | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 20:21 | -1 | 17 |
| 14 | Gremio | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 15:16 | -1 | 17 |
| 15 | Cruzeiro | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 18:24 | -6 | 16 |
| 16 | Santos | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 19:22 | -3 | 15 |
| 17 | Corinthians | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 10:13 | -3 | 15 |
| 18 | Mirassol | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 15:19 | -4 | 12 |
| 19 | Remo | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 15:24 | -9 | 11 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-SC | 13 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 13:26 | -13 | 8 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B
