Result
1:0
16/08/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Pro - Round 25
- Referee: Leon R. (Ecu)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Ecuador | Canal del Futbol, Ecuavisa, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping |
 Peru | Zapping Sports |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.28 | 0.86 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 39% | 61% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 8 | 16 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 9 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 77% (213/277) | 84% (338/403) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.28 | 0.86 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.29 | 0.20 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 8 | 16 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 10 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 2 | 15 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 9 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 10 | 24 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 77% (213/277) | 84% (338/403) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 35% (17/48) | 48% (24/50) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 69% (50/72) | 60% (47/78) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 7% (1/14) | 35% (13/37) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.31 | 1.04 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 10 | 18 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 10 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 75% (9/12) | 50% (4/8) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 34 | 39 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 30 | 11 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.20 | 0.29 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.20 | -0.71 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 33', Peralta K. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Charcopa J. ↓, Gracia A. ↑,
- 63', Montenegro B. ↓, Zambrano C. ↑,
- 68', Mina G. ↓, Chala Rosales W. J. ↑,
- 68', Burbano R. ↓, Verges J. ↑,
- 71', Patino D. ↓, Ciccioli U. ↑,
- 72', 1 - 0, Arce L. ⚽, Gracia A. (A),
- 80', Ontaneda J. ↓, Almagro A. ↑,
- 80', Jaramilo R. ↓, Miranda B. ↑,
- 89', Orejuela C. ↓, Delgado B. ↑,
- 90+1', Gracia A. 🟥,
- 90+4', Carcelen Carabali M. A. 🟨,
- 90+5', Penilla C. ↓, Arce J. ↑,
Chances of winning
Mushuc Runa
28.8% | Draw
27.5% | SD Aucas
43.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Mushuc Runa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mushuc Runa's form might have worsened.SD Aucas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting SD Aucas's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mushuc Runa than the current prediction. (+5.7%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mushuc Runa, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for SD Aucas than the current prediction. (-5.9%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for SD Aucas, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Mushuc Runa - SD Aucas Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.27 ↑
(2.61) |
3.36 ↑
(3.36) |
2.08 ↓
(2.53) |
8.4%
(7.8%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Mushuc Runa - SD Aucas?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH 0 - Aucas (votes: 6 - 100%).
- DNB - Aucas (votes: 4 - 100%).
Users Predictions:
SD Aucas will win
(13 of 14 users predict this - 92.86%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.37% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): SD Aucas will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mushuc Runa won 1.
- Mushuc Runa is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Aucas has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Aucas may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Aucas is seen as the favorite.
- We predict that Aucas will win today's game, with odds of 1.9.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Mushuc Runa won 4 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 16:31. (average 0.8:1.6).
- Including home matches between the teams, Mushuc Runa won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 8:16. (average 0.9:1.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Mushuc Runa won against SD Aucas?
Mushuc Runa has won 1 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has SD Aucas won against Mushuc Runa?
SD Aucas has won 3 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Mushuc Runa - SD Aucas were as follows:
27.04.2025
SD Aucas
-
Mushuc Runa
2:0
15.09.2024
SD Aucas
-
Mushuc Runa
1:2
30.03.2024
Mushuc Runa
-
SD Aucas
0:2
29.10.2023
SD Aucas
-
Mushuc Runa
4:0
20.05.2023
Mushuc Runa
-
SD Aucas
0:0
Latest results of Mushuc Runa
Latest results of SD Aucas
Ecuadorian Liga Pro Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Ind. del Valle | 25 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 45:20 | 25 | 53 |
| 2 | LDU Quito | 25 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 41:24 | 17 | 44 |
| 3 | Barcelona SC | 25 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 37:29 | 8 | 44 |
| 4 | Libertad | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 40:34 | 6 | 41 |
| 5 | Dep. Cuenca | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 30:25 | 5 | 39 |
| 6 | Aucas | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 35:37 | -2 | 38 |
| 7 | Orense | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 27:29 | -2 | 38 |
| 8 | U. Catolica | 25 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 46:33 | 13 | 36 |
| 9 | Emelec | 25 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 24:28 | -4 | 35 |
| 10 | EL Nacional | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 30:35 | -5 | 28 |
| 11 | Delfin | 25 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 24:37 | -13 | 28 |
| 12 | Macara | 25 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 23:26 | -3 | 27 |
| 13 | Manta | 25 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 31:42 | -11 | 25 |
| 14 | Tecnico U | 25 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 24:35 | -11 | 25 |
| 15 | Vinotinto | 25 | 6 | 6 | 13 | 29:36 | -7 | 24 |
| 16 | Mushuc Runa ✔ | 25 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 27:43 | -16 | 20 |
Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )
Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )
Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )
Clinched Spots for Teams
Mushuc Runa is Liga Pro (Relegation Group )
