Result
31/01/2026 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liiga
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | MTV Katsomo+ |
Chances of winning
HPK
38.1% | Draw
24.3% | Lukko
37.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
HPK - Lukko Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.43 ↓
(2.54) |
3.79 ↑
(3.63) |
2.5 ↑
(2.49) |
7.5%
(7.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 5.00
Preview Facts
- Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 14 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, HPK won 1.
- Recent performances by HPK have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Lukko has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- HPK may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
- We predict that HPK will win today's game, with odds of 2.53.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, HPK won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 12 matches, and goals 34:61. (average 1.7:3.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, HPK won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 20:25. (average 2.2:2.8).
How many head-to-head matches has HPK won against Lukko?
HPK has won 7 of their last 16 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Lukko won against HPK?
Lukko has won 9 of their last 16 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between HPK - Lukko were as follows:
20.12.2025
Lukko
-
HPK
4:2
29.11.2025
HPK
-
Lukko
1:2
19.09.2025
Lukko
-
HPK
6:0
15.08.2025
Lukko
-
HPK
1:2
15.03.2025
Lukko
-
HPK
6:1
Finnish SM-liiga Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | WO | LO | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Tappara | 44 | 28 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 164:104 | 90 |
| 2 | SaiPa | 45 | 22 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 151:128 | 80 |
| 3 | JYP | 42 | 20 | 8 | 3 | 11 | 147:121 | 79 |
| 4 | Lukko | 44 | 21 | 5 | 3 | 15 | 138:118 | 76 |
| 5 | KooKoo | 42 | 20 | 7 | 1 | 14 | 150:108 | 75 |
| 6 | Ilves | 44 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 14 | 139:116 | 75 |
| 7 | KalPa | 43 | 20 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 129:128 | 74 |
| 8 | Assat | 44 | 19 | 6 | 3 | 16 | 124:117 | 72 |
| 9 | IFK Helsinki | 44 | 16 | 3 | 4 | 21 | 102:143 | 58 |
| 10 | Kiekko-Espoo | 45 | 15 | 3 | 7 | 20 | 112:133 | 58 |
| 11 | TPS Turku | 45 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 107:123 | 58 |
| 12 | Pelicans | 42 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 17 | 86:107 | 56 |
| 13 | Jukurit | 42 | 14 | 3 | 6 | 19 | 100:114 | 54 |
| 14 | Hameenlinna | 44 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 20 | 104:124 | 53 |
| 15 | Karpat | 44 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 133:147 | 51 |
| 16 | Vaasan Sport | 44 | 9 | 1 | 9 | 25 | 93:148 | 38 |
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
