Result
2:1
01/03/2026 at 18:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Paulista - Play Offs - Semi-finals
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Caze TV, Claro TV+, HBO Max, Sky+, TNT Sports, TV Record, Vivo Play, Zapping |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.77 | 1.05 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 40% | 60% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 74% (227/307) | 84% (376/448) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.77 | 1.05 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.14 | 0.74 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 10 | 13 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 15 | 16 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 74% (227/307) | 84% (376/448) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 49% (39/79) | 65% (36/55) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 54% (47/87) | 67% (84/125) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 43% (3/7) | 23% (5/22) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.55 | 0.36 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 19 | 17 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 16 | 15 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 57% (8/14) | 85% (17/20) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 46 | 53 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 20 | 13 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.74 | 1.14 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.26 | -0.86 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 8', 1 - 0, Mauricio ⚽, Vitor Roque (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 51', Piquerez J. 🟨,
- 56', Luan Silva ↓, Danielzinho ↑,
- 56', Sabino 🟨,
- 58', 2 - 0, Lopez J. ⚽, Piquerez J. (A),
- 65', Allan Elias ↓, Arias J. ↑,
- 69', 2 - 1, Jonathan Calleri (Penalty Awarded),
- 74', Mauricio ↓, Felipe Anderson ↑,
- 77', Bobadilla D. ↓, Cauly ↑,
- 82', Cauly 🟨,
- 86', Lucas Moura ↓, Andre Silva ↑,
- 87', Gomez G. 🟨,
- 87', Lopez J. ↓, Lucas Evangelista ↑,
- 87', Vitor Roque ↓, Sosa R. ↑,
- 88', Khellven ↓, Giay A. ↑,
- 90+3', Marcos Antonio 🟨,
Chances of winning
Palmeiras
53% | Draw
26.8% | São Paulo
20.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Palmeiras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (+1.4%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (-0.3%)
Palmeiras - São Paulo Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.75 ↓
(1.8) |
3.44 ↑
(3.36) |
4.59 ↑
(4.4) |
7.9%
(8.2%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Palmeiras - São Paulo?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Palmeiras (votes: 2 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH -1.5 - São Paulo (1.30) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Palmeiras will win
(8 of 10 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 55.21% – 100%.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Palmeiras (votes: 2 - 66.7%). São Paulo (votes: 1 - 33.3%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
- Palmeiras is Qualified for Paulista (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 4.
- Both teams have recently enjoyed a winning streak.
- In this match, Palmeiras is the team to beat.
- We predict that Palmeiras will win today's game, with odds of 1.72.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 9 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 28:16. (average 1.4:0.8).
- Including home matches between the teams, Palmeiras won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 19:7. (average 1.6:0.6).
How many head-to-head matches has Palmeiras won against São Paulo?
Palmeiras has won 7 of their last 15 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has São Paulo won against Palmeiras?
São Paulo has won 3 of their last 15 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Palmeiras - São Paulo were as follows:
24.01.2026
Palmeiras
-
São Paulo
3:1
05.10.2025
São Paulo
-
Palmeiras
2:3
11.05.2025
Palmeiras
-
São Paulo
1:0
10.03.2025
Palmeiras
-
São Paulo
1:0
16.02.2025
Palmeiras
-
São Paulo
0:0
Latest results of Palmeiras
Latest results of São Paulo
Draw
Play OffsQuarter-finals| 1 | Novorizontino (1) | Santos (8) | 2 : 1 |
| 2 | Portuguesa (4) | Corinthians (5) | 1 : 2 |
| 3 | Palmeiras (2) | Capivariano (7) | 4 : 0 |
| 4 | Bragantino (3) | Sao Paulo (6) | 1 : 2 |
Semi-finals| 1 | Novorizontino (1) | Corinthians (5) | 1 : 0 |
| 2 | Palmeiras (2) | Sao Paulo (6) | 2 : 1 |
Final| 1 | Novorizontino (1) | Palmeiras (2) | |
