Universidad Católica del Ecuador vs Emelec – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

25/06/2025 at 20:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito).

Liga Pro - Round 16
Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	Fanatiz

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.09	2.38
Ball Possession
55%	45%
Total shots
17	11
Shots on target
4	3
Big Chances
1	2
Corner Kicks
5	1
Passes
89% (372/418)	86% (295/342)
Yellow Cards
2	0
Red Cards
2	0
Expected Goals (xG)
1.09	2.38
xG on target (xGOT)
0.60	1.46
Total shots
17	11
Shots on target
4	3
Shots off target
6	6
Blocked Shots
7	2
Shots inside the Box
8	8
Shots outside the Box
10	3
Hit the Woodwork
0	1
Headed Goals
1	0
Big Chances
1	2
Corner Kicks
5	1
Touches in opposition box
21	18
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
1	3
Free Kicks
13	9
Passes
89% (372/418)	86% (295/342)
Long passes
68% (23/34)	64% (32/50)
Passes in final third
78% (88/113)	77% (61/79)
Crosses
25% (5/20)	27% (4/15)
Expected assists (xA)
0.69	0.48
Throw-ins
17	10
Fouls
9	13
Tackles
50% (6/12)	76% (19/25)
Duels won
39	47
Clearances
7	21
Interceptions
9	5
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
2	3
xGOT faced
1.46	0.60
Goals prevented
0.40	-0.40

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 1)
27', 0 - 1, Cueva C. (Pen),
35', Canga L. 🟥,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
57', Cuero Palacio J. R. ↓, Castelli F. ↑,
59', Clavijo E. ↓, Anangono G. ↑,
68', Anangono G. 🟨,
71', Cacciabue J. ↓, Troya R. ↑,
71', Valencia E. ↓, Yanez Zambrano S. ↑,
71', Romero Padilla D. A. ↓, Mejia E. ↑,
75', Cueva C. ↓, Barco A. ↑,
75', Ayovi J. ↓, Quinonez J. ↑,
81', Yanez Zambrano S. 🟥,
84', Moreno L. ↓, Draper A. ↑,
88', Jhon Chancellor 🟨,
90+1', Cevallos J. ↓, Ruiz J. ↑,
90+1', 1 - 1, Palacios B. ⚽,

Highlights

Chances of winning

Universidad Católica del Ecuador
55.1%

Draw
25.8%

Emelec
19.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.6%

25.1%

14.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.8%

24.2%

13.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Universidad Católica del Ecuador has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Universidad Católica del Ecuador's form might have worsened.

Emelec has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Universidad Católica del Ecuador than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Universidad Católica del Ecuador, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Emelec than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Emelec, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Emelec Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↑ (1.53)	3.6 ↓ (3.7)	4.78 ↓ (6.5)	8.1% (7.8%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

What is the prediction for Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Emelec?

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Uni Católica will win (votes: 9 - 90%). Emelec will win (votes: 1 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Uni Católica: 71.4% – 100%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Uni Católica (votes: 1 - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.

Preview Facts

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: ) and 13 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Uni Católica won 3.
Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
In this match, Uni Católica is considered a favorite.
In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Uni Católica won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 18:11. (average 2:1.2).
Including home matches between the teams, Uni Católica won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:5. (average 2.3:1.3).

How many head-to-head matches has Universidad Católica del Ecuador won against Emelec?

Universidad Católica del Ecuador has won 4 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Emelec won against Universidad Católica del Ecuador?

Emelec has won 2 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Emelec were as follows:

16.02.2025 Emelec - Universidad Católica del Ecuador 0:4

26.10.2024 Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Emelec 2:0

05.05.2024 Emelec - Universidad Católica del Ecuador 2:1

28.10.2023 Emelec - Universidad Católica del Ecuador 2:1

20.05.2023 Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Emelec 3:2

Latest results of Universidad Católica del Ecuador

21.06.2025 El Nacional - Universidad Católica del Ecuador 0:3 ✺

01.06.2025 Deportivo Cuenca - Universidad Católica del Ecuador 3:1 ✺

28.05.2025 Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Vitória Salvador 1:0 ✺

24.05.2025 Universidad Católica del Ecuador - LDU Quito 3:1 ✺

18.05.2025 Delfín - Universidad Católica del Ecuador 1:0 ✺

Latest results of Emelec

21.06.2025 Emelec - Delfín 2:2 ✺

31.05.2025 Emelec - Orense 1:0 ✺

25.05.2025 El Nacional - Emelec 2:0 ✺

18.05.2025 Barcelona Guayaquil - Emelec 2:0 ✺

11.05.2025 Emelec - SD Aucas 0:1 ✺

Ecuadorian Liga Pro Table

2025

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Ind. del Valle	27	17	8	2	50:20	30	59
2	Barcelona SC	27	14	5	8	40:32	8	47
3	LDU Quito	27	12	9	6	42:26	16	45
4	Dep. Cuenca	27	12	7	8	32:26	6	43
5	U. Catolica	27	11	9	7	51:35	16	42
6	Libertad	27	11	9	7	40:34	6	42
7	Orense	27	12	6	9	31:31	0	42
8	Aucas	27	11	5	11	36:39	-3	38
9	Emelec	27	10	8	9	26:30	-4	38
10	EL Nacional	27	9	7	11	32:35	-3	34
11	Macara	27	7	10	10	26:28	-2	31
12	Delfin	27	6	11	10	25:40	-15	29
13	Manta	27	5	10	12	31:45	-14	25
14	Tecnico U	27	6	7	14	24:41	-17	25
15	Vinotinto	27	6	6	15	29:38	-9	24
16	Mushuc Runa ✔	27	6	5	16	30:45	-15	23

      Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )
      Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )
      Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )

Clinched Spots for Teams

Mushuc Runa is Liga Pro (Relegation Group )