Result
4:1
14/03/2026 at 11:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liiga
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | MTV Katsomo+ |
 Sweden | TV4 Play |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.97 | 3.21 |
| Shots on Goal |
|---|
| 23 | 28 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 12 | 19 |
| Shooting PCT |
|---|
| 17.39% (4/23) | 3.57% (1/28) |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 7 | 16 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 27 | 19 |
| Saves PCT |
|---|
| 96.43% (27/28) | 82.61% (19/23) |
| Penalties |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| PIM |
|---|
| 8 | 6 |
| Power-play Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Shorthanded Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Power-play PCT |
|---|
| 33.33% (1/3) | 0% (0/4) |
| Pen. Killing PCT |
|---|
| 100% (4/4) | 66.67% (2/3) |
| Faceoffs Won |
|---|
| 33 | 41 |
| Faceoffs % |
|---|
| 44.59 | 55.41 |
| Empty Net Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Period (1 - 1)
- 02:16, 0 - 1, Nyberg J. (G), Klingberg C. (A), Utunen T. (A2)
- 07:27, Haapanen T. (2 min),
- 10:07, Daschke D. (2 min),
- 19:38, 1 - 1, Beaucage A. (G), Saarela A. (A), Olsson A. (A2)
- 2nd Period (2 - 0)
- 01:50, 2 - 1, Viitasalo N. (G), Intonen A. (A), Olsson A. (A2)
- 03:26, Saarela A. (2 min),
- 11:15, 3 - 1, Olsson A. (G), Intonen A. (A), Hamalainen L. (A2)
- 12:16, Jasek L. (2 min),
- 18:31, Ruohomaa M. (2 min),
- 3rd Period (1 - 0)
- 04:35, Nyberg J. (2 min),
- 05:43, 4 - 1, Beaucage A. (G), Ruohomaa M. (A), Westerholm Po. (A2)
- 17:56, Nyberg J. (2 min),
Chances of winning
Lukko
32.6% | Draw
23% | Ilves
44.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Lukko has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lukko's form might have worsened.Ilves has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.9%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ilves's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lukko than the current prediction. (+13.1%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lukko, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ilves than the current prediction. (-12.4%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ilves, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Lukko - Ilves Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.89 ↑
(2.24) |
4.02 ↑
(3.96) |
2.11 ↓
(2.6) |
6.9%
(8.3%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 5.25
What is the prediction for Lukko - Ilves?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Ilves (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:3.
Preview Facts
- The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lukko won 1.
- Lukko has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Ilves is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
- Ilves may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lukko won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 56:62. (average 2.8:3.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Lukko won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 32:27. (average 3.2:2.7).
How many head-to-head matches has Lukko won against Ilves?
Lukko has won 8 of their last 16 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Ilves won against Lukko?
Ilves has won 8 of their last 16 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Lukko - Ilves were as follows:
17.02.2026
Ilves
-
Lukko
3:2
04.10.2025
Lukko
-
Ilves
1:0
20.09.2025
Ilves
-
Lukko
6:3
25.04.2025
Lukko
-
Ilves
4:5
25.02.2025
Ilves
-
Lukko
5:1
Draw
Play Offs1/8-finals| 1 | Tappara (1) | Bye | |
| 2 | Lukko (5) | Hameenlinna (12) | 1 : 3 |
| 3 | Ilves (4) | Bye | |
| 4 | KalPa (7) | IFK Helsinki (10) | 3 : 2 |
| 5 | KooKoo (2) | Bye | |
| 6 | JYP (6) | Pelicans (11) | 0 : 3 |
| 7 | SaiPa (3) | Bye | |
| 8 | Assat (8) | Kiekko-Espoo (9) | 3 : 2 |
Quarter-finals| 1 | Tappara (1) | Hameenlinna (12) | 2 : 1 |
| 2 | Ilves (4) | KalPa (7) | 2 : 0 |
| 3 | KooKoo (2) | Pelicans (11) | 2 : 1 |
| 4 | SaiPa (3) | Assat (8) | 1 : 1 |
