Result
1:0
04/10/2025 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liiga
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | MTV Katsomo+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.47 | 2.59 |
| Shots on Goal |
|---|
| 23 | 23 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 12 | 10 |
| Shooting PCT |
|---|
| 4.35% (1/23) | 0% (0/23) |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 6 | 6 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 23 | 22 |
| Saves PCT |
|---|
| 100% (23/23) | 95.65% (22/23) |
| Penalties |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| PIM |
|---|
| 6 | 10 |
| Power-play Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Shorthanded Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Power-play PCT |
|---|
| 0% (0/5) | 0% (0/3) |
| Pen. Killing PCT |
|---|
| 100% (3/3) | 100% (5/5) |
| Faceoffs Won |
|---|
| 33 | 23 |
| Faceoffs % |
|---|
| 58.93 | 41.07 |
| Empty Net Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Period (0 - 0)
- 05:25, Teuho-Markkola T. (2 min),
- 08:00, Soini S. (2 min),
- 2nd Period (0 - 0)
- 07:55, Stenqvist J. (2 min),
- 11:18, Latvala O. (2 min),
- 3rd Period (1 - 0)
- 10:28, 1 - 0, Beaucage A. (G), Ruohomaa M. (A),
- 13:23, Henman L. (2 min),
- 14:44, Jandric S. (2 min),
- 18:11, Looke J. (2 min),
- 18:11, Gelinas E. (2 min),
Chances of winning
Lukko
52% | Draw
22% | Ilves
26% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Lukko - Ilves Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.81 ↓
(1.91) |
4.27 ↑
(4.12) |
3.61 ↑
(3.28) |
6.5%
(7.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 5.50
Preview Facts
- One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 15 in the zone Liiga (Play Out: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lukko won 1.
- In recent matches, Lukko has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Ilves is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Lukko may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Lukko is considered a favorite.
- We predict that Lukko will win today's game, with odds of 1.82.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lukko won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 62:62. (average 3.1:3.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Lukko won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 35:28. (average 3.5:2.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Lukko won against Ilves?
Lukko has won 7 of their last 14 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Ilves won against Lukko?
Ilves has won 7 of their last 14 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Lukko - Ilves were as follows:
20.09.2025
Ilves
-
Lukko
6:3
25.04.2025
Lukko
-
Ilves
4:5
25.02.2025
Ilves
-
Lukko
5:1
27.12.2024
Lukko
-
Ilves
5:3
29.10.2024
Lukko
-
Ilves
2:3
Finnish SM-liiga Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | WO | LO | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Tappara | 29 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 101:68 | 57 |
| 2 | Assat | 29 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 91:64 | 55 |
| 3 | KooKoo | 28 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 102:76 | 53 |
| 4 | JYP | 26 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 101:78 | 51 |
| 5 | Lukko | 28 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 81:72 | 49 |
| 6 | SaiPa | 28 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 93:75 | 47 |
| 7 | Kiekko-Espoo | 30 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 79:88 | 44 |
| 8 | KalPa | 27 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 87:88 | 43 |
| 9 | TPS Turku | 31 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 72:77 | 43 |
| 10 | Jukurit | 31 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 69:85 | 39 |
| 11 | Ilves | 27 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 76:85 | 38 |
| 12 | Pelicans | 28 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 57:67 | 38 |
| 13 | IFK Helsinki | 30 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 61:97 | 36 |
| 14 | Hameenlinna | 28 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 68:78 | 35 |
| 15 | Karpat | 29 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 89:99 | 32 |
| 16 | Vaasan Sport | 27 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 60:90 | 24 |
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
