Result
2:1
12/12/2025 at 14:15 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Challenge League - Round 17
- Referee: Drmic M. (Cro)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Switzerland | Blue Sport D1, Blue Sport D1, Blue Zoom |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.08 | 0.74 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 48% | 52% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (293/371) | 81% (330/405) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.08 | 0.74 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.31 | 0.24 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 22 | 11 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 18 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (293/371) | 81% (330/405) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 59% (33/56) | 55% (41/75) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 62% (80/129) | 55% (47/86) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 10% (1/10) | 20% (1/5) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.30 | 0.35 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 16 | 25 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 18 | 12 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 84% (21/25) | 79% (15/19) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 53 | 53 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 27 | 26 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.24 | 1.31 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.76 | -0.69 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 8', 1 - 0, Filet E. ⚽, Fazliu V. (A),
- 12', Caslei B. 🟨,
- 34', 1 - 1, Itaitinga ⚽,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Acquah D. ↓, Kessler R. ↑,
- 46', Guzzo R. ↓, Obexer L. ↑,
- 46', Derbaci D. ↓, Chacon T. ↑,
- 46', Walker M. ↓, Holcbecher M. ↑,
- 53', Koide H. 🟨,
- 62', 2 - 1, Koide H. ⚽,
- 65', Essiena Avang L. ↓, Hysenaj F. ↑,
- 74', Kessler R. 🟨,
- 83', Obexer L. 🟨,
- 84', Koide H. ↓, Afriyie D. ↑,
- 84', Itaitinga ↓, Patricio A. ↑,
- 85', Philippin R. ↓, Boulkous N. ↑,
- 85', El Jaouhari M. ↓, Maouche Y. ↑,
- 87', Dickenmann M. 🟨,
- 89', Filet E. ↓, Jackle O. ↑,
- 90+3', Fankhauser S. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Aarau
61.1% | Draw
21.3% | Étoile Carouge
17.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Aarau has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)Étoile Carouge has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aarau than the current prediction. (+1.8%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Étoile Carouge than the current prediction. (-0.1%)
Aarau - Étoile Carouge Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.51 ↓
(1.54) |
4.32 ↓
(4.41) |
5.25 ↑
(5.13) |
8.5%
(7.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
What is the prediction for Aarau - Étoile Carouge?
Users Predictions:
11 users predict this event. Aarau will win (votes: 10 - 90.9%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 9.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Aarau: 73.9% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Aarau (votes: 1 - 50%). Étoile (votes: 1 - 50%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH -0.5 - Aarau (1.53) (votes: 1 - 50%) .
- AH -1 - Aarau (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- DNB - Étoile (3.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- DC - Étoile (2.28) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH 0 - Étoile (4.04) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 8 high ROI users predict this event. Aarau (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Étoile (votes: 5 - 62.5%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Super League (Promotion: ) and 8).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aarau won 2.
- Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
- Aarau may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Aarau is a strong favorite.
- There will not play in Aarau: Aliu I.
(Knee Injury)
Petit V.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Étoile: Bossiwa S.
(Inactive)
Boulkous N.
(Inactive)
Bua K.
(Injury)
Harrington F.
(Inactive)
Rufli V.
(Inactive)
Strohbach I.
(Yellow Cards)
- There are questionable in Aarau: Gebreyesus E.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Étoile: Felder V.
(Inactive)
Neves D.
(Inactive)
- In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Aarau won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:7. (average 1.7:1.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Aarau won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Aarau won against Étoile Carouge?
Aarau has won 3 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Étoile Carouge won against Aarau?
Étoile Carouge has won 2 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Aarau - Étoile Carouge were as follows:
26.09.2025
Étoile Carouge
-
Aarau
1:3
16.05.2025
Étoile Carouge
-
Aarau
1:3
28.03.2025
Aarau
-
Étoile Carouge
2:2
05.12.2024
Aarau
-
Étoile Carouge
0:1
01.11.2024
Étoile Carouge
-
Aarau
2:1
Latest results of Étoile Carouge
Swiss Challenge League Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Vaduz | 23 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 52:25 | 27 | 55 |
| 2 | Aarau | 23 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 43:30 | 13 | 50 |
| 3 | Yverdon | 23 | 13 | 4 | 6 | 45:30 | 15 | 43 |
| 4 | Lausanne Ouchy | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 41:32 | 9 | 35 |
| 5 | Xamax | 23 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 33:34 | -1 | 31 |
| 6 | Rapperswil-Jona | 23 | 9 | 1 | 13 | 26:34 | -8 | 28 |
| 7 | Wil | 23 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 20:35 | -15 | 24 |
| 8 | Stade Nyonnais | 23 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 24:31 | -7 | 22 |
| 9 | Etoile-Carouge | 23 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 24:36 | -12 | 19 |
| 10 | Bellinzona | 23 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 20:41 | -21 | 14 |
Promotion ~ Super League
Promotion ~ Super League (Promotion: )
Relegation ~ Promotion League
