Result
0:3
06/03/2026 at 14:15 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Challenge League - Round 25
- Referee: Gianforte N. (Sui)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Switzerland | Blue Sport D1, Blue Sport D1, Blue Zoom |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.89 | 1.88 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 55% | 45% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 22 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 7 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 4 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (426/492) | 83% (327/396) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.89 | 1.88 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.20 | 3.60 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 22 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 7 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 10 | 3 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 10 | 1 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 6 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 16 | 5 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 4 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 17 | 11 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 13 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (426/492) | 83% (327/396) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 71% (44/62) | 55% (41/75) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 77% (106/137) | 67% (56/83) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 30% (3/10) | 40% (2/5) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.52 | 1.33 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 18 | 20 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 13 | 12 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 85% (11/13) | 76% (13/17) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 41 | 41 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 12 | 13 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 8 | 12 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 3.60 | 1.20 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.60 | 1.20 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 8', 0 - 1, Vladi S. ⚽, Dickenmann M. (A),
- 44', Acquah D. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 2)
- 53', Vladi S. 🟨,
- 54', Acquah D. ↓, Petit V. ↑,
- 57', Obexer L. 🟨,
- 62', El Jaouhari M. ↓, Caslei B. ↑,
- 65', Frokaj L. ↓, Derbaci D. ↑,
- 65', Obexer L. ↓, Guzzo R. ↑,
- 65', Filet E. ↓, Afriyie D. ↑,
- 75', Bossiwa S. ↓, Correia O. ↑,
- 75', Bouchlarhem T. ↓, Escorza T. ↑,
- 75', 0 - 2, Vladi S. ⚽, Dickenmann M. (A),
- 81', Bua K. ↓, Samba T. ↑,
- 81', Felder V. ↓, Boulkous N. ↑,
- 83', Hubel M. 🟨,
- 83', Hoxha F. 🟨,
- 85', 0 - 3, Afriyie D. ⚽, Derbaci D. (A),
- 90+1', Vladi S. ↓, Jackle O. ↑,
Chances of winning
Étoile Carouge
23% | Draw
23.7% | Aarau
53.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Étoile Carouge has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)Aarau has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Étoile Carouge than the current prediction. (-0.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aarau than the current prediction. (+1.1%)
Étoile Carouge - Aarau Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
4.04 ↑
(4.03) |
3.91 ↑
(3.83) |
1.74 ↑
(1.73) |
7.9%
(8.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
What is the prediction for Étoile Carouge - Aarau?
Users Predictions:
Aarau will win
(14 of 15 users predict this - 93.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.7% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Aarau will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Étoile won 1.
- Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
- In this match, Aarau is the team to beat.
- There will not play in Étoile: Rufli V.
(Yellow Cards)
Walker M.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Aarau: Aliu I.
(Knee Injury)
- In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Étoile won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 8:12. (average 1.1:1.7).
- Including home matches between the teams, Étoile won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:7. (average 1.3:2.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Étoile Carouge won against Aarau?
Étoile Carouge has won 2 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Aarau won against Étoile Carouge?
Aarau has won 4 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Étoile Carouge - Aarau were as follows:
12.12.2025
Aarau
-
Étoile Carouge
2:1
26.09.2025
Étoile Carouge
-
Aarau
1:3
16.05.2025
Étoile Carouge
-
Aarau
1:3
28.03.2025
Aarau
-
Étoile Carouge
2:2
05.12.2024
Aarau
-
Étoile Carouge
0:1
Latest results of Étoile Carouge
Swiss Challenge League Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Vaduz | 26 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 53:27 | 26 | 59 |
| 2 | Aarau | 26 | 19 | 2 | 5 | 53:33 | 20 | 59 |
| 3 | Yverdon | 26 | 14 | 5 | 7 | 49:32 | 17 | 47 |
| 4 | Lausanne Ouchy | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 44:34 | 10 | 39 |
| 5 | Xamax | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 36:36 | 0 | 36 |
| 6 | Rapperswil-Jona | 26 | 9 | 2 | 15 | 31:42 | -11 | 29 |
| 7 | Wil | 26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 23:38 | -15 | 27 |
| 8 | Etoile-Carouge | 26 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 28:39 | -11 | 25 |
| 9 | Stade Nyonnais | 26 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 25:33 | -8 | 24 |
| 10 | Bellinzona | 26 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 23:51 | -28 | 15 |
Promotion ~ Super League
Promotion ~ Super League (Promotion: )
Relegation ~ Promotion League
