Result
1:3
26/09/2025 at 14:15 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Challenge League - Round 8
- Referee: Drmic M. (Cro)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Switzerland | Blue Sport D1, Blue Sport D1, Blue Zoom |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.15 | 1.09 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 50% | 50% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 19 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (386/455) | 82% (372/451) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.15 | 1.09 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.08 | 2.01 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 19 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 8 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 11 | 1 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 9 | 11 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 10 | 3 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 22 | 28 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (386/455) | 82% (372/451) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 70% (51/73) | 53% (28/53) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 64% (67/105) | 68% (85/125) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 7% (1/14) | 23% (3/13) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.51 | 1.71 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 15 | 19 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 8 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 91% (10/11) | 57% (12/21) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 36 | 44 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 27 | 35 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 12 | 10 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.01 | 1.08 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.99 | 0.08 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 10', 0 - 1, Frokaj L. ⚽, Afriyie D. (A),
- 41', Kessler R. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 2)
- 46', Escorza T. ↓, Traore B. ↑,
- 46', Essiena Avang L. ↓, Bua K. ↑,
- 50', 1 - 1, Ricardo Alves ⚽,
- 70', Obexer L. ↓, Petit V. ↑,
- 70', Frokaj L. ↓, Derbaci D. ↑,
- 71', 1 - 2, Filet E. ⚽, Afriyie D. (A),
- 73', Boulkous N. ↓, Felder V. ↑,
- 80', El Jaouhari M. ↓, Sestito L. ↑,
- 80', Sene O. ↓, Maouche Y. ↑,
- 84', Ricardo Alves 🟨,
- 86', Filet E. ↓, Jakob N. ↑,
- 86', Afriyie D. ↓, Koide H. ↑,
- 90+1', 1 - 3, Derbaci D. ⚽, Koide H. (A),
Chances of winning
Étoile Carouge
14.6% | Draw
23.4% | Aarau
62.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Étoile Carouge has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.2%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Étoile Carouge's form might have worsened.Aarau has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.5%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Aarau's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Étoile Carouge than the current prediction. (+8.2%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Étoile Carouge, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aarau than the current prediction. (-9.4%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Aarau, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Étoile Carouge - Aarau Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
6.62 ↑
(4.08) |
4.13 ↑
(3.78) |
1.55 ↓
(1.77) |
3.8%
(7.5%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Étoile Carouge - Aarau?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Aarau (votes: 2 - 100%).
Users Predictions:
Aarau will win
(14 of 16 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.29% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.
Preview Facts
- Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 8 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Super League).
- Recent form of Étoile has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Aarau is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).
- Aarau may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Aarau is considered a favorite.
- There will not play in Étoile: Caslei B.
(Inactive)
Diallo M. M.
(Injury)
Harrington F.
(Inactive)
Traore B.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Aarau: Aliu I.
(Knee Injury)
Jackle O.
(Ankle Injury)
- There are questionable in Aarau: Dickenmann M.
(Knee Injury)
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Étoile won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:7. (average 1.2:1.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, Étoile won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 1.5:2).
How many head-to-head matches has Étoile Carouge won against Aarau?
Étoile Carouge has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Aarau won against Étoile Carouge?
Aarau has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Étoile Carouge - Aarau were as follows:
16.05.2025
Étoile Carouge
-
Aarau
1:3
28.03.2025
Aarau
-
Étoile Carouge
2:2
05.12.2024
Aarau
-
Étoile Carouge
0:1
01.11.2024
Étoile Carouge
-
Aarau
2:1
24.08.2024
Aarau
-
Étoile Carouge
1:0
Latest results of Étoile Carouge
Swiss Challenge League Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Aarau | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 20:8 | 12 | 24 |
| 2 | Yverdon | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 18:8 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Vaduz | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 19:8 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Lausanne Ouchy | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 14:12 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Xamax | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 16:13 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Stade Nyonnais | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13:15 | -2 | 11 |
| 7 | Etoile-Carouge | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9:12 | -3 | 8 |
| 8 | Rapperswil-Jona | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 9:15 | -6 | 7 |
| 9 | Wil | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7:18 | -11 | 5 |
| 10 | Bellinzona | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 5:21 | -16 | 4 |
Promotion ~ Super League
Promotion ~ Super League (Promotion: )
Relegation ~ Promotion League
