Result
1:3
07/04/2026 at 13:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Challenge League - Round 29
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Switzerland | Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.98 | 2.60 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 57% | 43% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 21 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 0 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (344/436) | 78% (262/335) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.98 | 2.60 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.47 | 2.64 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 21 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 10 | 4 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 12 | 9 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 9 | 5 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 0 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 36 | 25 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 15 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (344/436) | 78% (262/335) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 56% (29/52) | 55% (35/64) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 64% (110/171) | 71% (64/90) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 41% (11/27) | 29% (2/7) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.32 | 1.82 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 23 | 22 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 15 | 6 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 67% (14/21) | 48% (12/25) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 53 | 70 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 18 | 44 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 10 | 9 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.64 | 0.47 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.36 | -0.53 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 18', El Jaouhari M. 🟨,
- 23', 0 - 1, Correia O. ⚽, Essiena Avang L. (A),
- 35', Rufli V. 🟨,
- 41', Bua K. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 2)
- 52', Diallo M. M. 🟨,
- 63', Obexer L. ↓, Petit V. ↑,
- 63', Derbaci D. ↓, Jackle O. ↑,
- 64', Vladi S. ↓, Afriyie D. ↑,
- 74', Afriyie D. 🟨,
- 75', Filet E. ↓, Bobadilla R. ↑,
- 77', 1 - 1, Afriyie D. ⚽, Acquah D. (A),
- 78', Bua K. ↓, Escorza T. ↑,
- 78', Correia O. ↓, Sene O. ↑,
- 78', Rufli V. ↓, Boulkous N. ↑,
- 79', Dickenmann M. 🟨,
- 82', Escorza T. 🟨,
- 87', Acquah D. 🟨,
- 89', 1 - 2, Itaitinga (Penalty Awarded),
- 90', Itaitinga 🟨,
- 90', Philippin R. 🟨,
- 90', Fazliu V. 🟨,
- 90', Acquah D. ↓, Koide H. ↑,
- 90+1', Hubel M. 🟨,
- 90+2', 1 - 3, Itaitinga (Penalty Awarded),
Chances of winning
Aarau
66.4% | Draw
19.2% | Étoile Carouge
14.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Aarau has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Aarau's performance.Étoile Carouge has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aarau than the current prediction. (-4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Étoile Carouge than the current prediction. (+3.4%)
Aarau - Étoile Carouge Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.4 ↓
(1.56) |
4.84 ↑
(4.18) |
6.41 ↑
(4.86) |
7.9%
(8.6%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
What is the prediction for Aarau - Étoile Carouge?
Users Predictions:
Aarau will win
(25 of 27 users predict this - 92.59%).
Confidence interval (95%): 82.71% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Aarau will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aarau won 4.
- Aarau is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).
- Étoile is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Étoile may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Aarau is seen as the favorite.
- There will not play in Aarau: Frokaj L.
(Yellow Cards)
- There will not play in Étoile: Harrington F.
(Injury)
Walker M.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Étoile: Bossiwa S.
(Inactive)
Strohbach I.
(Inactive)
- We predict that Aarau will win today's game, with odds of 1.51.
- In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Aarau won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:8. (average 1.9:1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Aarau won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 5:4. (average 1.3:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Aarau won against Étoile Carouge?
Aarau has won 5 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Étoile Carouge won against Aarau?
Étoile Carouge has won 2 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Aarau - Étoile Carouge were as follows:
06.03.2026
Étoile Carouge
-
Aarau
0:3
12.12.2025
Aarau
-
Étoile Carouge
2:1
26.09.2025
Étoile Carouge
-
Aarau
1:3
16.05.2025
Étoile Carouge
-
Aarau
1:3
28.03.2025
Aarau
-
Étoile Carouge
2:2
Latest results of Étoile Carouge
Swiss Challenge League Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Vaduz | 29 | 21 | 5 | 3 | 61:31 | 30 | 68 |
| 2 | Aarau | 29 | 21 | 2 | 6 | 60:40 | 20 | 65 |
| 3 | Yverdon | 29 | 16 | 5 | 8 | 59:37 | 22 | 53 |
| 4 | Lausanne Ouchy | 29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | 46:40 | 6 | 39 |
| 5 | Xamax | 29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 39:45 | -6 | 36 |
| 6 | Wil | 29 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 31:43 | -12 | 33 |
| 7 | Etoile-Carouge | 29 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 34:41 | -7 | 32 |
| 8 | Rapperswil-Jona | 29 | 10 | 2 | 17 | 38:50 | -12 | 32 |
| 9 | Stade Nyonnais | 29 | 5 | 13 | 11 | 28:38 | -10 | 28 |
| 10 | Bellinzona | 29 | 4 | 6 | 19 | 29:60 | -31 | 18 |
Promotion ~ Super League
Promotion ~ Super League (Promotion: )
Relegation ~ Promotion League
