Legia Warsaw vs AEK Larnaca – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football UEFA Europa League Legia Warsaw - AEK Larnaca
Result
2:1
14/08/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Europa League - Qualification - Semi-finals
  • Referee: Treimanis A. (Lat)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
cyprusCyprusCytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 2, Cytavision Sports 2
kosovoKosovoArena Premium 3
polandPolandTVP 2
serbiaSerbiaArena Premium 3
slovakiaSlovakiaArena sport 1

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.820.79
Ball Possession
59%41%
Total shots
139
Shots on target
43
Big Chances
51
Corner Kicks
21
Passes
80% (334/417)73% (214/292)
Yellow Cards
46
Red Cards
01
Expected Goals (xG)
1.820.79
xG on target (xGOT)
0.690.58
Total shots
139
Shots on target
43
Shots off target
83
Blocked Shots
13
Shots inside the Box
116
Shots outside the Box
23
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
10
Big Chances
51
Corner Kicks
21
Touches in opposition box
1914
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
40
Free Kicks
1311
Passes
80% (334/417)73% (214/292)
Long passes
62% (39/63)44% (27/62)
Passes in final third
70% (87/125)60% (52/87)
Crosses
29% (8/28)23% (3/13)
Expected assists (xA)
1.650.83
Throw-ins
2723
Fouls
1215
Tackles
80% (12/15)36% (5/14)
Duels won
5045
Clearances
1424
Interceptions
86
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
22
xGOT faced
0.580.69
Goals prevented
-0.42-1.31

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (2 - 0)
  • 1', Jedrzejczyk A. 🟨,
  • 11', 1 - 0, Nsame J. , Wszolek P. (A),
  • 16', 2 - 0, Rajovic M. , Bichakhchyan V. (A),
  • 38', Vinagre R. 🟨,
  • 45', Iordanescu E. 🟨,
  • 45+4', Roberge V. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 1)
  • 52', 2 - 1, Ivanovic D. ,
  • 61', Rajovic M. , Alfarela M. ,
  • 63', Gnali J. 🟨,
  • 68', Milicevic H. 🟨,
  • 71', Angielski K. , Cabrera E. ,
  • 71', Bichakhchyan V. , Stojanovic P. ,
  • 71', Morishita R. , Urbanski W. ,
  • 72', Gnali J. 🟨,
  • 78', Tobiasz K. 🟨,
  • 78', Augustyniak R. 🟨,
  • 78', Chacon Y. 🟨,
  • 79', Jedrzejczyk A. , Shkurin I. ,
  • 79', Vinagre R. , Reca A. ,
  • 85', Ivanovic D. 🟨,
  • 86', Ivanovic D. , Jimmy Suarez ,
  • 86', Chacon Y. , Miramon ,
  • 89', Idiakez I. 🟨,
  • 90+7', Garcia A. , Danny Henriques ,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Legia Warsaw
61%
Draw
22.2%
AEK Larnaca
16.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
54.4% 22.5% 23.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.5% 22.1% 23.5%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Legia Warsaw has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Legia Warsaw's performance.
  • AEK Larnaca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and AEK Larnaca might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Legia Warsaw than the current prediction. (-7.5%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Legia Warsaw that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for AEK Larnaca than the current prediction. (+6.7%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that AEK Larnaca could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
  • Legia Warsaw - AEK Larnaca Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.57
    (1.7)
    4.38
    (4.1)
    5.81
    (4)
    3.7%
    (8.2%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
  • What is the prediction for Legia Warsaw - AEK Larnaca?
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 23 high ROI users predict this event. Legia (votes: 15 - 65.2%). AEK Larnaca (votes: 6 - 26.1%). Tie (votes: 2 - 8.7%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 7 - 100%).
    • AH -1 - AEK Larnaca (votes: 3 - 100%).
    • AH -0.5 - AEK Larnaca (votes: 3 - 100%).
    • DC - AEK Larnaca (votes: 4 - 100%).
  • Users Predictions: Legia Warsaw will win (56 of 67 users predict this - 83.58%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 74.71%92.45%.
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • 1st leg result: 1-4. 2nd leg.
    • Legia is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • AEK Larnaca is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).
    • AEK Larnaca may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • In this match, Legia is seen as the favorite.
    • In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Legia won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:5. (average 0.5:2.5).
    • Including home match between the teams, Legia won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Legia Warsaw - AEK Larnaca were as follows:
    07.08.2025 AEK Larnaca - Legia Warsaw 4:1
    Latest results of Legia Warsaw
    Latest results of AEK Larnaca
    07.08.2025 AEK Larnaca - Legia Warsaw 4:1
    31.07.2025 AEK Larnaca - Celje 2:1
    24.07.2025 Celje - AEK Larnaca 1:1
    17.07.2025 Partizan - AEK Larnaca 2:2
    10.07.2025 AEK Larnaca - Partizan 1:0
    UEFA Europa League Table
    League phase
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Panathinaikos11004:133
    2D. Zagreb11003:123
    3Midtjylland11002:023
    4AS Roma11002:113
    5Ludogorets11002:113
    6Lille11002:113
    7Freiburg11002:113
    8Stuttgart11002:113
    9Genk11001:013
    10Lyon11001:013
    11FC Porto11001:013
    12FCSB11001:013
    13Aston Villa11001:013
    14Braga11001:013
    15Nottingham10102:201
    16Betis10102:201
    17Plzen10101:101
    18Celtic10101:101
    19Crvena zvezda10101:101
    20Ferencvaros10101:101
    21PAOK10100:001
    22Maccabi Tel Aviv10100:001
    23Celta Vigo10011:2-10
    24Brann10011:2-10
    25Basel10011:2-10
    26Nice10011:2-10
    27Malmo FF10011:2-10
    28Bologna10010:1-10
    29Salzburg10010:1-10
    30Feyenoord10010:1-10
    31Utrecht10010:1-10
    32Rangers10010:1-10
    33G.A. Eagles10010:1-10
    34Fenerbahce10011:3-20
    35Sturm Graz10010:2-20
    36Young Boys10011:4-30

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