Result
1:4
07/02/2026 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Super League - Round 20
- Referee: Vergetis C. (Gre)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Greece | COSMOTE Sport 1 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.24 | 0.48 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 69% | 31% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (465/537) | 71% (174/246) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.24 | 0.48 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.44 | 1.63 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 13 | 13 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 19 | 17 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (465/537) | 71% (174/246) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 59% (27/46) | 44% (28/64) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 63% (73/115) | 54% (43/79) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 25% (4/16) | 40% (2/5) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.78 | 0.90 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 18 | 15 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 17 | 19 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 64% (7/11) | 67% (10/15) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 50 | 56 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 15 | 28 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.63 | 1.44 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -2.37 | 0.44 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 3)
- 2', 0 - 1, Badji Y. ⚽, Farley Rosa (A),
- 12', Sourlis V. ↓, Naor G. ↑,
- 16', Mavrias Ch. ↓, Esteban Diego ↑,
- 23', 0 - 2, Esteban Diego ⚽,
- 31', 1 - 2, Garate L. ⚽,
- 39', Pantelakis E. 🟨,
- 45+4', 1 - 3, Farley Rosa ⚽, Matan A. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 46', Pantelakis E. ↓, Sisto P. ↑,
- 46', Farley Rosa ↓, Smyrlis L. ↑,
- 58', Batubinsika D. 🟨,
- 62', Garate L. ↓, Pasas G. ↑,
- 62', Perez F. ↓, Mourgos S. ↑,
- 67', Lenny Lobato ↓, Aleksic K. ↑,
- 70', Manrique C. 🟨,
- 74', 1 - 4, Smyrlis L. ⚽, Badji Y. (A),
- 78', Tupta L. ↓, Ngoy J. ↑,
- 81', Matan A. ↓, Bregou A. ↑,
- 81', Badji Y. ↓, Garcia J. ↑,
- 88', Sagal A. 🟨,
- 88', Sourlis V. 🟨,
Chances of winning
AEL Larissa
50.6% | Draw
29.1% | Panetolikos
20.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
AEL Larissa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in AEL Larissa's performance.Panetolikos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Panetolikos might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for AEL Larissa than the current prediction. (-6.6%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with AEL Larissa that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Panetolikos than the current prediction. (+5.2%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Panetolikos could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
AEL Larissa - Panetolikos Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.86 ↓
(2.17) |
3.23 ↑
(3.02) |
4.63 ↑
(3.57) |
6.3%
(7.3%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for AEL Larissa - Panetolikos?
Users Predictions:
10 users predict this event. Larissa will win (votes: 7 - 70%). Panetolikos will win (votes: 1 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Larissa: 41.6% – 98.4%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): AEL Larissa will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 10 in the zone Super League (Relegation Group: ) and 12 in the zone Super League (Relegation Group: ))
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Larissa won 1.
- Larissa is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Panetolikos is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- In this match, Larissa is a strong favorite.
- There will not play in Larissa: Andrada L.
(Inactive)
Kossonou A.
(Yellow Cards)
Papageorgiou A.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Panetolikos: Hoxha D.
(Red Card)
- There are questionable in Panetolikos: Aguirre J.
(Ankle Injury)
Chura J.
(Inactive)
- We predict that Larissa will win today's game, with odds of 1.77.
- In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Larissa won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 17:23. (average 1.2:1.6).
- Including home matches between the teams, Larissa won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 10:6. (average 1.4:0.9).
How many head-to-head matches has AEL Larissa won against Panetolikos?
AEL Larissa has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Panetolikos won against AEL Larissa?
Panetolikos has won 2 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between AEL Larissa - Panetolikos were as follows:
08.11.2025
Panetolikos
-
AEL Larissa
3:0
01.08.2025
AEL Larissa
-
Panetolikos
0:1
Latest results of AEL Larissa
Latest results of Panetolikos
Greek Super League Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | AEK Athens ✔ | 22 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 41:13 | 28 | 52 |
| 2 | Olympiacos Piraeus | 22 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 40:10 | 30 | 50 |
| 3 | PAOK | 21 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 42:14 | 28 | 47 |
| 4 | Levadiakos | 22 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 49:29 | 20 | 39 |
| 5 | Panathinaikos | 21 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 31:22 | 9 | 36 |
| 6 | Aris | 22 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 19:22 | -3 | 28 |
| 7 | Volos | 22 | 8 | 2 | 12 | 21:32 | -11 | 26 |
| 8 | OFI Crete | 21 | 8 | 1 | 12 | 27:37 | -10 | 25 |
| 9 | Atromitos | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 23:27 | -4 | 24 |
| 10 | Panetolikos | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 22:36 | -14 | 21 |
| 11 | Kifisia | 21 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 27:33 | -6 | 21 |
| 12 | AEL Larissa | 22 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 21:34 | -13 | 21 |
| 13 | Asteras Tripolis | 22 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 20:35 | -15 | 16 |
| 14 | Panserraikos | 22 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 14:53 | -39 | 12 |
Promotion ~ Super League (Championship Group: )
Promotion ~ Super League (Conference League Group: )
Super League (Relegation Group: )
Clinched Spots for Teams
AEK Athens is Qualified for Super League (Championship Group )
