Result
3:1
04/04/2026 at 11:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Super League - Relegation Group - Round 1
- Referee: Fotias V. (Gre)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Australia | SportPlus |
 Greece | Nova Sports 2 |
 Usa | SportPlus |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.25 | 1.06 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 38% | 62% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 8 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 80% (254/319) | 87% (460/528) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.25 | 1.06 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.14 | 1.16 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 8 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 11 | 13 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 15 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 80% (254/319) | 87% (460/528) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 45% (30/66) | 64% (36/56) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 61% (53/87) | 76% (102/135) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 10% (2/21) | 3% (1/30) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.26 | 0.59 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 19 | 23 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 15 | 3 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 50% (8/16) | 73% (11/15) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 44 | 51 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 32 | 18 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 10 | 6 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.16 | 1.14 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.16 | -1.86 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 12', 1 - 0, Bartolo J. ⚽, Ketu K. (A),
- 2nd Half (2 - 1)
- 46', Ferigra E. ↓, Pasas G. ↑,
- 59', 2 - 0, Macheda F. ⚽,
- 63', Deligiannidis P. 🟨,
- 64', Kakuta G. ↓, Mourgos S. ↑,
- 64', Sourlis V. ↓, Perez F. ↑,
- 75', Macheda F. ↓, Kaltsas N. ↑,
- 76', Bartolo J. ↓, Chidera O. M. ↑,
- 78', Tupta L. ↓, Chatzistravos Z. ↑,
- 78', Naor G. ↓, Garate L. ↑,
- 79', Sagal A. 🟨,
- 87', Ketu K. ↓, Tzandaris T. ↑,
- 88', Iliadis T. 🟨,
- 90', 3 - 0, Chidera O. M. ⚽,
- 90+1', Gonzalez E. ↓, Pomonis K. ↑,
- 90+1', Sylla I. ↓, Emmanouilidis D. ↑,
- 90+3', 3 - 1, Garate L. ⚽,
Chances of winning
Asteras Tripolis
42.8% | Draw
30.3% | AEL Larissa
26.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Asteras Tripolis has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)AEL Larissa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Asteras Tripolis than the current prediction. (-0.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for AEL Larissa than the current prediction. (+2.8%)
Asteras Tripolis - AEL Larissa Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.2 ↓
(2.29) |
3.08 ↓
(3.23) |
3.48 ↑
(3) |
6.6%
(8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Asteras Tripolis - AEL Larissa?
Users Predictions:
8 users predict this event. Asteras Tripolis will win (votes: 4 - 50%). Larissa will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Asteras Tripolis: 15.4% – 84.6%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Asteras Tripolis (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- AH 0 - Larissa (2.21) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- DC - Larissa (1.54) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Asteras Tripolis (votes: 1 - 25%). Larissa (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Asteras Tripolis won 3.
- Asteras Tripolis has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Larissa has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
- There will not play in Asteras Tripolis: Chicco J.
(Injury)
Gioacchini N.
(Inactive)
Mendieta J.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Larissa: Pantelakis E.
(Injury)
Staikos P.
(Injury)
- In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Asteras Tripolis won 9 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 35:21. (average 2.1:1.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Asteras Tripolis won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 18:8. (average 2.3:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Asteras Tripolis won against AEL Larissa?
Asteras Tripolis has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has AEL Larissa won against Asteras Tripolis?
AEL Larissa has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Asteras Tripolis - AEL Larissa were as follows:
14.03.2026
AEL Larissa
-
Asteras Tripolis
1:1
14.09.2025
Asteras Tripolis
-
AEL Larissa
2:2
Latest results of Asteras Tripolis
Latest results of AEL Larissa
Greek Super League Table
Relegation Group | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 9 | Atromitos | 31 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 36:34 | 2 | 40 |
| 10 | Panetolikos | 31 | 8 | 7 | 16 | 30:45 | -15 | 31 |
| 11 | Kifisia | 31 | 6 | 13 | 12 | 34:45 | -11 | 31 |
| 12 | Panserraikos | 31 | 7 | 6 | 18 | 22:62 | -40 | 27 |
| 13 | Asteras Tripolis | 31 | 5 | 10 | 16 | 28:45 | -17 | 25 |
| 14 | AEL Larissa | 31 | 4 | 12 | 15 | 27:49 | -22 | 24 |
Relegation ~ Super League 2
