Result
2:2
01/02/2026 at 06:15 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Eredivisie - Round 21
- Referee: Nagtegaal M. (Ned)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | DStv Now, SupeSport ESPN 1 |
 Argentina | Disney+ |
 Brazil | Disney+ |
 Bulgaria | Ring, Voyo |
 Canada | Sportsnet+, Sportsnet World |
 Chile | Disney+ |
 Colombia | Disney+ |
 Germany | Sportdigital FUSSBALL |
 Greece | Nova Sports Prime |
 Israel | Sport 4 |
 Italy | Como TV |
 Japan | U-NEXT |
 Kenya | Gotv |
 Mexico | Disney+, ESPN 2 |
 Netherlands | Canal+, ESPN 3, ESPN Extra |
 Nigeria | SupeSport ESPN 1 |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 Poland | Polsat Sport 3 |
 Portugal | DAZN 1 |
 Romania | Prima Sport 3 |
 Slovakia | Arena sport 1 |
 Slovenia | Sport TV1 |
 South-africa | SupeSport ESPN |
 Switzerland | Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV |
 Turkey | S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2 |
 United-kingdom | Premier Sports Player |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | ESPN App, ESPN+ |
 Venezuela | Disney+ |
 World | Triller TV+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.80 | 0.62 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 48% | 52% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 80% (355/442) | 81% (397/488) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.80 | 0.62 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.50 | 0.39 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 6 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 19 | 28 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 80% (355/442) | 81% (397/488) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 39% (26/67) | 42% (27/65) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 56% (58/103) | 58% (49/84) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 25% (4/16) | 14% (1/7) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.46 | 0.95 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 18 | 22 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 5 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 50% (6/12) | 88% (14/16) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 34 | 48 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 17 | 19 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 14 | 3 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.39 | 1.50 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -1.61 | -0.50 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 2)
- 21', 0 - 1, Godts M. ⚽, Bounida R. (A),
- 40', 0 - 2, Godts M. ⚽, Dolberg K. (A),
- 2nd Half (2 - 0)
- 62', Hansson E. ↓, de Regt G. ↑,
- 63', Sanches Fernandes D. ↓, Jonathans M. ↑,
- 63', Bergraaf J. ↓, Schouten L. ↑,
- 67', Dolberg K. ↓, Weghorst W. ↑,
- 67', Bounida R. ↓, Edvardsen O. ↑,
- 70', Schouten L. 🟨,
- 74', 1 - 2, Jonathans M. ⚽, de Regt G. (A),
- 79', 2 - 2, Zagre A. ⚽, de Regt G. (A),
- 80', Mokio J. ↓, Tomiyasu T. ↑,
- 80', Steur S. ↓, Johnson J. ↑,
- 89', Hartjes L. ↓, van Duinen M. ↑,
Chances of winning
Excelsior
23.3% | Draw
24.3% | Ajax
52.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Excelsior has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)Ajax has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Excelsior than the current prediction. (-4.4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ajax than the current prediction. (+6.2%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ajax could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Excelsior - Ajax Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
4.07 ↓
(4.77) |
3.91 ↓
(3.92) |
1.81 ↑
(1.66) |
5.4%
(6.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
What is the prediction for Excelsior - Ajax?
Users Predictions:
26 users predict this event. Excelsior will win (votes: 3 - 11.5%). Ajax will win (votes: 20 - 76.9%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 11.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ajax: 60.7% – 93.1%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- DC - Ajax (1.24) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Ajax will win (10 of 12 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥇 Gold Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 13 high ROI users predict this event. Excelsior (votes: 2 - 15.4%). Ajax (votes: 11 - 84.6%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
Preview Facts
- Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 13 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Excelsior won 1.
- Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
- Excelsior may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Ajax is considered a favorite.
- There will not play in Ajax: Itakura K.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Excelsior: van Duinen M.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Ajax: Berghuis S.
(Groin Injury)
- In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Excelsior won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 18:49. (average 1.1:2.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, Excelsior won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 7:24. (average 0.9:3).
How many head-to-head matches has Excelsior won against Ajax?
Excelsior has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Ajax won against Excelsior?
Ajax has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Excelsior - Ajax were as follows:
22.11.2025
Ajax
-
Excelsior
1:2
24.04.2024
Ajax
-
Excelsior
2:2
19.08.2023
Excelsior
-
Ajax
2:2
29.01.2023
Excelsior
-
Ajax
1:4
16.10.2022
Ajax
-
Excelsior
7:1
Latest results of Excelsior
Dutch Eredivisie Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | PSV | 25 | 21 | 2 | 2 | 73:30 | 43 | 65 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 25 | 15 | 3 | 7 | 55:35 | 20 | 48 |
| 3 | Ajax | 25 | 11 | 11 | 3 | 47:31 | 16 | 44 |
| 4 | Nijmegen | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 61:43 | 18 | 43 |
| 5 | Twente | 25 | 10 | 11 | 4 | 41:26 | 15 | 41 |
| 6 | AZ Alkmaar | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 42:40 | 2 | 39 |
| 7 | Sparta Rotterdam | 25 | 11 | 4 | 10 | 32:42 | -10 | 37 |
| 8 | Utrecht | 25 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 38:31 | 7 | 34 |
| 9 | Heerenveen | 25 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 42:43 | -1 | 34 |
| 10 | Sittard | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 39:45 | -6 | 32 |
| 11 | Groningen | 25 | 9 | 4 | 12 | 33:35 | -2 | 31 |
| 12 | G.A. Eagles | 25 | 6 | 11 | 8 | 38:39 | -1 | 29 |
| 13 | Zwolle | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 34:50 | -16 | 28 |
| 14 | FC Volendam | 25 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 29:41 | -12 | 27 |
| 15 | Excelsior | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 26:42 | -16 | 26 |
| 16 | NAC Breda | 25 | 5 | 7 | 13 | 25:39 | -14 | 22 |
| 17 | Telstar | 25 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 31:41 | -10 | 21 |
| 18 | Heracles | 25 | 5 | 2 | 18 | 32:65 | -33 | 17 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: )
Eredivisie (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie
