Result
3:1
07/03/2026 at 10:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Eredivisie - Round 26
- Referee: Gozubuyuk S. (Ned)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | DStv Now, SupeSport ESPN 1 |
 Argentina | Disney+, ESPN 4 |
 Austria | DAZN |
 Belgium | Play Sports 1, Play Sports 3 |
 Bolivia | ESPN 4 |
 Brazil | Disney+, ESPN 4 |
 Bulgaria | Ring, Voyo |
 Canada | Sportsnet+ |
 Cyprus | Cablenet Sports 3, Cablenet Sports 3 |
 Ecuador | ESPN 4 |
 France | DAZN France |
 Germany | DAZN Deutsch, Sportdigital FUSSBALL |
 Greece | Nova Sports Extra 1 |
 Hong-kong | myTV SUPER |
 India | Eurosport |
 Indonesia | Vidio |
 Italy | Como TV |
 Japan | U-NEXT |
 Kenya | Gotv |
 Mexico | Disney+, ESPN 4 |
 Netherlands | Canal+, ESPN 2 |
 Nigeria | SupeSport ESPN 1 |
 North-central-america | Disney+ Caribbean |
 North-macedonia | MaxTV GO |
 Paraguay | ESPN 4 |
 Peru | Disney+, ESPN 4 |
 Poland | Polsat Sport Extra 3 |
 Portugal | DAZN / App |
 Russia | TV Start, TV Start Triumph |
 Serbia | Arena Sport 2 |
 Slovakia | Arena sport 1 |
 South-africa | SupeSport ESPN |
 Spain | Gol Play, GolStadium |
 Switzerland | DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV |
 Turkey | Tivibu Spor 4 |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | ESPN App, ESPN+ |
 Venezuela | Disney+, ESPN 4 |
 World | Onefootball, Triller TV+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.92 | 1.86 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 40% | 60% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 8 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 73% (274/375) | 82% (455/555) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.92 | 1.86 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.73 | 1.45 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 9 | 7 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 8 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 26 | 19 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 73% (274/375) | 82% (455/555) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 39% (23/59) | 37% (28/76) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 60% (84/139) | 73% (102/140) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 14% (1/7) | 20% (5/25) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 2.50 | 0.86 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 20 | 17 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 41% (9/22) | 91% (10/11) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 54 | 49 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 28 | 22 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 8 | 15 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.45 | 1.73 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.45 | -1.27 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 6', 1 - 0, van Bergen T. ⚽, Janse D. (A),
- 30', 1 - 1, Klaassen D. ⚽, Gaaei A. (A),
- 2nd Half (2 - 0)
- 46', Vaessen E. ↓, Jurjus H. ↑,
- 46', Willumsson B. ↓, Zawada O. ↑,
- 46', Mercera T. ↓, Rente M. ↑,
- 65', 2 - 1, Zawada O. ⚽, Peersman M. (A),
- 69', Klaassen D. ↓, Bounida R. ↑,
- 69', Berghuis S. ↓, Dolberg K. ↑,
- 69', Hernes T. ↓, de Jonge T. ↑,
- 72', 3 - 1, Zawada O. ⚽, Blokzijl T. (A),
- 76', Zawada O. ↓, Mendes R. ↑,
- 82', Peersman M. ↓, Prins W. ↑,
- 83', Sutalo J. ↓, Carrizo M. ↑,
- 88', Mokio J. ↓, Konadu D. ↑,
- 88', Steur S. ↓, Fitz-Jim K. ↑,
- 88', Wijndal O. ↓, Tomiyasu T. ↑,
- 90+4', Weghorst W. 🟨,
- 90+5', Blokzijl T. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Groningen
33.1% | Draw
25.9% | Ajax
41.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Groningen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)Ajax has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Groningen than the current prediction. (-3.6%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ajax than the current prediction. (+2.8%)
Groningen - Ajax Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.88 ↓
(2.98) |
3.67 ↑
(3.42) |
2.31 ↑
(2.26) |
5.4%
(7.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
What is the prediction for Groningen - Ajax?
Users Predictions:
23 users predict this event. Groningen will win (votes: 6 - 26.1%). Ajax will win (votes: 14 - 60.9%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 13%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ajax: 41% – 80.8%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 5 high ROI users predict this event. Groningen (votes: 1 - 20%). Ajax (votes: 3 - 60%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 11 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Groningen won 0.
- Groningen has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Ajax has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
- There will not play in Groningen: Hoekstra M.
(Injury)
Resink S.
(Knee Injury)
Taha Y.
(Yellow Cards)
de Jonge T.
(Injury)
van der Laan E.
(Muscle Injury)
- There will not play in Ajax: Itakura K.
(Back Injury)
Jaros V.
(Knee Injury)
Regeer Y.
(Yellow Cards)
Zinchenko O.
(Knee Injury)
- We predict that Ajax will win today's game, with odds of 2.4.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Groningen won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 16 matches, and goals 15:46. (average 0.8:2.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Groningen won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 11:15. (average 1.2:1.7).
How many head-to-head matches has Groningen won against Ajax?
Groningen has won 0 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Ajax won against Groningen?
Ajax has won 3 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Groningen - Ajax were as follows:
02.12.2025
Ajax
-
Groningen
2:0
14.05.2025
Groningen
-
Ajax
2:2
06.10.2024
Ajax
-
Groningen
3:1
16.05.2023
Groningen
-
Ajax
2:3
Latest results of Groningen
Dutch Eredivisie Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | PSV | 27 | 22 | 2 | 3 | 77:34 | 43 | 68 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 27 | 16 | 4 | 7 | 60:39 | 21 | 52 |
| 3 | Nijmegen | 27 | 14 | 7 | 6 | 67:45 | 22 | 49 |
| 4 | Ajax | 27 | 12 | 11 | 4 | 52:34 | 18 | 47 |
| 5 | Twente | 27 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 45:29 | 16 | 44 |
| 6 | AZ Alkmaar | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 47:42 | 5 | 42 |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 47:44 | 3 | 40 |
| 8 | Utrecht | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 40:31 | 9 | 38 |
| 9 | Sparta Rotterdam | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 33:47 | -14 | 38 |
| 10 | Groningen | 27 | 10 | 5 | 12 | 37:37 | 0 | 35 |
| 11 | Sittard | 27 | 10 | 5 | 12 | 42:50 | -8 | 35 |
| 12 | G.A. Eagles | 27 | 7 | 11 | 9 | 45:43 | 2 | 32 |
| 13 | Zwolle | 27 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 36:52 | -16 | 30 |
| 14 | FC Volendam | 27 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 30:46 | -16 | 27 |
| 15 | Excelsior | 27 | 7 | 5 | 15 | 28:46 | -18 | 26 |
| 16 | Telstar | 27 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 35:45 | -10 | 24 |
| 17 | NAC Breda | 27 | 5 | 8 | 14 | 28:48 | -20 | 23 |
| 18 | Heracles | 27 | 5 | 3 | 19 | 32:69 | -37 | 18 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: )
Eredivisie (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie
