Groningen vs Ajax – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Dutch Eredivisie
Football Dutch Eredivisie Groningen - Ajax
Result
2:2
14/05/2025 at 14:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Eredivisie - Round 33
  • Referee: Manschot J. (Ned)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
africaAfricaDStv Now, SupeSport ESPN 1, SupeSport ESPN 2
albaniaAlbaniaSuperSport 4
argentinaArgentinaDisney+, ESPN 4
austriaAustriaDAZN
belgiumBelgiumPlay Sports 1
brazilBrazilClaro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
bulgariaBulgariaRing
canadaCanadaSportsnet+, Sportsnet World
chileChileDisney+
chinaChinaK-Ball
colombiaColombiaDisney+
croatiaCroatiaSportKlub 4
cyprusCyprusCablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
denmarkDenmarkTV3 Sport, Viaplay
finlandFinlandVeikkaus TV
germanyGermanyDAZN 1 Deutsch, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
greeceGreeceNova Sports 3
israelIsraelSport 4
italyItalyComo TV
kenyaKenyaGotv
malaysiaMalaysiaAstro Football, Astro Go, Sooka
mexicoMexicoDisney+
netherlandsNetherlandsCanal+, ESPN 2, ESPN Extra
north-central-americaNorth-central-americaDisney+ Caribbean
north-macedoniaNorth-macedoniaMaxTV GO
norwayNorwayViaplay, V Sport 3
peruPeruDisney+
polandPolandPolsat Sport Premium 4
portugalPortugalSport TV4
russiaRussiaTV Start
serbiaSerbiaArena Sport 4, SportKlub 4
slovakiaSlovakiaArena sport 1
sloveniaSloveniaSport TV1
south-americaSouth-americaESPN 4 South
spainSpainGolStadium
swedenSwedenViaplay, V Sport Fotbool
switzerlandSwitzerlandDAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
turkeyTurkeyExxen
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaESPN App, ESPN+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+, Inter
worldWorldTriller TV+

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.800.80
Ball Possession
46%54%
Total shots
1311
Shots on target
53
Big Chances
22
Corner Kicks
43
Passes
79% (352/448)82% (430/525)
Yellow Cards
32
Red Cards
10
Expected Goals (xG)
1.800.80
xG on target (xGOT)
1.940.44
Total shots
1311
Shots on target
53
Shots off target
55
Blocked Shots
33
Shots inside the Box
612
Shots outside the Box
70
Hit the Woodwork
10
Big Chances
22
Corner Kicks
43
Touches in opposition box
1516
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
01
Free Kicks
1315
Passes
79% (352/448)82% (430/525)
Long passes
45% (34/75)48% (35/73)
Passes in final third
58% (65/112)64% (89/138)
Crosses
44% (8/18)55% (6/11)
Expected assists (xA)
0.951.29
Throw-ins
2117
Fouls
1513
Tackles
57% (12/21)40% (6/15)
Duels won
6158
Clearances
1620
Interceptions
85
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
13
xGOT faced
0.441.94
Goals prevented
-1.56-0.06

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 1)
  • 27', 0 - 1, Gaaei A. ⚽, Brobbey B. (A),
  • 2nd Half (2 - 1)
  • 52', 1 - 1, van Bergen T. ⚽, Resink S. (A),
  • 55', Bacuna L. 🟨,
  • 56', Fitz-Jim K. ↓, Klaassen D. ↑,
  • 56', Brobbey B. ↓, Weghorst W. ↑,
  • 64', Traore B. ↓, Berghuis S. ↑,
  • 64', Mokio J. ↓, Wijndal O. ↑,
  • 68', 1 - 2, Weghorst W. ⚽, Berghuis S. (A),
  • 72', Henderson J. 🟨,
  • 73', Kwakman D. ↓, Willumsson B. ↑,
  • 73', Prins W. ↓, Peersman M. ↑,
  • 77', Godts M. ↓, Regeer Y. ↑,
  • 80', Schreuders J. ↓, Seuntjens M. ↑,
  • 81', Ekdal H. 🟨,
  • 83', Gaaei A. 🟨,
  • 86', Bacuna L. ↓, Postema R. ↑,
  • 90+3', Valente L. 🟥,
  • 90+9', Vaessen E. 🟨,
  • 90+9', 2 - 2, Blokzijl T. ⚽,

Chances of winning


Groningen
17.1%		Draw
23.2%		Ajax
59.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
14.3% 20.3% 65.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

14% 19.9% 66.6%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Groningen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)
  • Ajax has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ajax might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Groningen than the current prediction. (-3.1%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ajax than the current prediction. (+6.9%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ajax could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
    •

    Groningen - Ajax Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 5.57 ↓
    (6.62)    		 4.09 ↓
    (4.66)    		 1.6 ↑
    (1.45)    		 5%
    (5.5%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
    •
    What is the prediction for Groningen - Ajax?
  • Users Predictions: 47 users predict this event. Groningen will win (votes: 15 - 31.9%). Ajax will win (votes: 27 - 57.4%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 10.6%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Ajax: 43.3% – 71.5%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 10 high ROI users predict this event. Groningen (votes: 6 - 60%). Ajax (votes: 3 - 30%). Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 11 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).
    • Ajax is Qualified for Champions League (League phase )
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Groningen won 0.
    • Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
    • Groningen may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • In this match, Ajax is seen as the favorite.
    • There will not play in Groningen: Mariani M. (Knock) Turay F. (Achilles Tendon Injury)
    • There will not play in Ajax: Baas Y. (Groin Injury) Edvardsen O. (Knee Injury) van den Boomen B. (Back Injury)
    • There are questionable in Groningen: Peersman M. (Inactive)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Groningen won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 16 matches, and goals 16:44. (average 0.8:2.2).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Groningen won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 11:13. (average 1.2:1.4).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Groningen - Ajax were as follows:
    06.10.2024 Ajax - Groningen 3:1
    16.05.2023 Groningen - Ajax 2:3
    Latest results of Groningen
    11.05.2025 AZ Alkmaar - Groningen 3:0 ✺
    03.05.2025 Groningen - Waalwijk 6:1 ✺
    23.04.2025 Groningen - Heracles Almelo 4:1 ✺
    13.04.2025 Utrecht - Groningen 3:1 ✺
    05.04.2025 Groningen - PSV Eindhoven 1:3 ✺
    Latest results of Ajax
    11.05.2025 Ajax - NEC Nijmegen 0:3 ✺
    27.04.2025 Ajax - Sparta Rotterdam 1:1 ✺
    20.04.2025 Utrecht - Ajax 4:0 ✺
    13.04.2025 Willem II - Ajax 1:2 ✺
    06.04.2025 Ajax - NAC Breda 3:1 ✺
    Dutch Eredivisie Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Sittard00000:000
    2Telstar00000:000
    3FC Volendam00000:000
    4Zwolle00000:000
    5PSV00000:000
    6Ajax00000:000
    7NAC Breda00000:000
    8Twente00000:000
    9Heerenveen00000:000
    10Feyenoord00000:000
    11Nijmegen00000:000
    12Utrecht00000:000
    13AZ Alkmaar00000:000
    14Sparta Rotterdam00000:000
    15Heracles00000:000
    16Excelsior00000:000
    17G.A. Eagles00000:000
    18Groningen00000:000

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: )
          Eredivisie (Relegation)
          Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie

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