Result
1:4
18/03/2026 at 14:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- QSL - Round 19
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Asia | beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.17 | 2.32 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 53% | 47% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 8 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (297/375) | 78% (266/339) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.17 | 2.32 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.86 | 2.12 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 8 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 3 | 8 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 21 | 24 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (297/375) | 78% (266/339) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 42% (20/48) | 35% (22/62) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 63% (55/87) | 68% (75/111) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 24% (5/21) | 11% (1/9) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.57 | 0.43 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 16 | 19 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 12 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 80% (16/20) | 50% (5/10) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 48 | 40 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 16 | 26 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 12 | 20 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.12 | 0.86 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -1.88 | -0.14 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 28', 1 - 0, Brahimi Y. (Penalty Awarded),
- 37', Gunnarsson A. 🟨,
- 45', Fettouhi D. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 4)
- 46', Radwan K. ↓, Abdelrahman Y. ↑,
- 46', 1 - 1, Abdelrahman Y. ⚽, Yansane S. (A),
- 58', Al Khlif Y. M. ↓, Aladin H. ↑,
- 59', 1 - 2, Troost-Ekong W. ⚽, Vlap M. (A),
- 66', Coman F. ↓, Djalo A. ↑,
- 69', Ali T. 🟨,
- 72', Draxler J. ↓, Diallo I. ↑,
- 73', Ali T. ↓, Mansour H. ↑,
- 77', Vlap M. 🟨,
- 77', Joselu ↓, Hamed J. ↑,
- 87', 1 - 3, Vlap M. (Penalty Awarded),
- 88', Yassine I. ↓, Mohammed H. ↑,
- 88', Yansane S. ↓, Amraoui A. ↑,
- 90+6', 1 - 4, Abdelrahman Y. ⚽, Fettouhi D. (A),
Chances of winning
Al-Gharafa
42.6% | Draw
26.7% | Al-Ahli Doha
30.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Al-Gharafa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Al-Gharafa's form might have worsened.Al-Ahli Doha has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Al-Gharafa than the current prediction. (+2.5%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Al-Ahli Doha than the current prediction. (-1.2%)
Al-Gharafa - Al-Ahli Doha Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.16 ↑
(1.9) |
3.44 ↓
(3.89) |
2.99 ↓
(3.41) |
8.9%
(7.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Al-Gharafa - Al-Ahli Doha?
Users Predictions:
Al-Gharafa will win
(4 of 5 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 44.94% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2 and 11 in the zone QSL (Relegation)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Al-Gharafa won 3.
- In recent matches, Al-Gharafa has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Al-Ahli Doha has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Recently, the opponents have had a series of home games.
- Al-Gharafa could have a small edge in this match.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Al-Gharafa won 11 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 39:22. (average 2:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Al-Gharafa won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:13. (average 1.6:1.4).
How many head-to-head matches has Al-Gharafa won against Al-Ahli Doha?
Al-Gharafa has won 4 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Al-Ahli Doha won against Al-Gharafa?
Al-Ahli Doha has won 2 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Al-Gharafa - Al-Ahli Doha were as follows:
25.10.2025
Al-Ahli Doha
-
Al-Gharafa
1:3
22.01.2025
Al-Gharafa
-
Al-Ahli Doha
2:0
18.08.2024
Al-Ahli Doha
-
Al-Gharafa
1:0
08.05.2024
Al-Gharafa
-
Al-Ahli Doha
4:3
24.02.2024
Al-Gharafa
-
Al-Ahli Doha
1:2
Latest results of Al-Gharafa
Latest results of Al-Ahli Doha
Qatar QSL Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Al-Sadd | 19 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 49:26 | 23 | 38 |
| 2 | Shamal | 18 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 31:21 | 10 | 34 |
| 3 | Al-Gharafa | 19 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 30:29 | 1 | 34 |
| 4 | Al Rayyan | 19 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 38:31 | 7 | 31 |
| 5 | Qatar SC | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 29:26 | 3 | 28 |
| 6 | Al Arabi | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 33:34 | -1 | 28 |
| 7 | Al-Duhail | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 34:22 | 12 | 27 |
| 8 | Al Wakra | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 26:29 | -3 | 23 |
| 9 | Umm-Salal | 19 | 6 | 2 | 11 | 34:47 | -13 | 20 |
| 10 | Al Ahli Doha | 19 | 6 | 1 | 12 | 27:39 | -12 | 19 |
| 11 | Al Sailiya | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 19:29 | -10 | 18 |
| 12 | Al-Shahaniya | 19 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 19:36 | -17 | 17 |
Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2
QSL (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Division 2
