Result
3:2
26/02/2026 at 13:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- QSL - Round 17
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Asia | beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA |
 Qatar | Shoof |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.00 | 1.59 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 41% | 59% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 72% (219/304) | 81% (353/436) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Red cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.00 | 1.59 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.40 | 1.57 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 9 | 8 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 6 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 19 | 21 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 16 | 19 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 72% (219/304) | 81% (353/436) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 46% (33/72) | 39% (22/56) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 54% (50/92) | 58% (45/77) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 50% (8/16) | 30% (7/23) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.55 | 0.83 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 17 | 27 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 19 | 16 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 71% (15/21) | 75% (15/20) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 68 | 69 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 30 | 24 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 9 | 6 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.57 | 1.40 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.43 | -1.60 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 4', 0 - 1, Rodrigo ⚽, Mitrovic A. (A),
- 30', Rodrigo 🟨,
- 2nd Half (3 - 1)
- 50', Sassi F. 🟨,
- 57', 1 - 1, Sassi F. ⚽,
- 61', 2 - 1, Surag A. ⚽, Joselu (A),
- 68', Ahmed H. ↓, Saleh M. ↑,
- 68', Amaro A. ↓, Tiago Silva ↑,
- 68', Hatem A. ↓, Surag M. ↑,
- 71', N'Diaye K. 🟨,
- 81', Diaz F. ↓, Normann M. ↑,
- 82', Yousif A. ↓, Alaaeldin A. ↑,
- 84', 3 - 1, Joselu ⚽, Surag A. (A),
- 88', Surag M. 🟨,
- 90+1', 3 - 2, Roger Guedes (Penalty Awarded),
- 90+2', Traore D. ↓, Hamed J. ↑,
- 90+2', Djalo A. ↓, Coman F. ↑,
- 90+2', Al Minhali A. ↓, Ali ↑,
- 90+8', Fadlalla S. 🟨,
- 90+12', Fadlalla S. 🟥,
- 90+12', Sano S. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Al-Gharafa
21.8% | Draw
21.6% | Al-Rayyan
56.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Al-Gharafa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.7%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Al-Gharafa's form might have worsened.Al-Rayyan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.5%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Al-Rayyan's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Al-Gharafa than the current prediction. (+7.7%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Al-Gharafa, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Al-Rayyan than the current prediction. (-8.9%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Al-Rayyan, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Al-Gharafa - Al-Rayyan Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
4.24 ↑
(3) |
4.29 ↑
(3.92) |
1.64 ↓
(1.98) |
8%
(9.3%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
What is the prediction for Al-Gharafa - Al-Rayyan?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Al-Rayyan will win
(11 of 12 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.03% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Al-Rayyan will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
Preview Facts
- The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2 and 4).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Al-Gharafa won 3.
- Recent form of Al-Gharafa has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Al-Rayyan is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- In this match, Al-Rayyan is the team to beat.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Al-Gharafa won 11 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 41:35. (average 2.1:1.8).
- Including home matches between the teams, Al-Gharafa won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 23:18. (average 2.6:2).
How many head-to-head matches has Al-Gharafa won against Al-Rayyan?
Al-Gharafa has won 6 of their last 11 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Al-Rayyan won against Al-Gharafa?
Al-Rayyan has won 3 of their last 11 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Al-Gharafa - Al-Rayyan were as follows:
25.09.2025
Al-Rayyan
-
Al-Gharafa
2:3
24.05.2025
Al-Rayyan
-
Al-Gharafa
1:2
29.01.2025
Al-Rayyan
-
Al-Gharafa
2:2
23.08.2024
Al-Gharafa
-
Al-Rayyan
2:1
01.05.2024
Al-Rayyan
-
Al-Gharafa
2:1
Latest results of Al-Gharafa
Latest results of Al-Rayyan
Qatar QSL Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Al-Sadd | 17 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 46:19 | 27 | 38 |
| 2 | Al-Gharafa | 17 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 29:23 | 6 | 34 |
| 3 | Shamal | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 29:18 | 11 | 31 |
| 4 | Al Rayyan | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 35:28 | 7 | 28 |
| 5 | Qatar SC | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 27:26 | 1 | 24 |
| 6 | Al Arabi | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 30:32 | -2 | 24 |
| 7 | Al Wakra | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 25:26 | -1 | 23 |
| 8 | Al-Duhail | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 27:21 | 6 | 21 |
| 9 | Umm-Salal | 17 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 29:45 | -16 | 16 |
| 10 | Al Sailiya | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 16:23 | -7 | 15 |
| 11 | Al Ahli Doha | 17 | 5 | 0 | 12 | 22:37 | -15 | 15 |
| 12 | Al-Shahaniya | 17 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 15:32 | -17 | 14 |
Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2
QSL (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Division 2
