Result
1:1
16/01/2026 at 08:40 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Saudi Professional League - Round 16
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Asia | JACO Middle East |
 China | QQ Sports |
 Saudi-arabia | Thmanyah App, Thmanyah |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.61 | 1.20 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 64% | 36% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 9 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (405/492) | 73% (204/279) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.61 | 1.20 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.43 | 0.79 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 7 | 7 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 10 | 9 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 9 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 30 | 28 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (405/492) | 73% (204/279) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 45% (30/66) | 51% (36/70) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 79% (126/160) | 64% (54/84) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 7% (2/27) | 18% (3/17) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.94 | 1.09 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 21 | 13 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 10 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 69% (11/16) | 71% (20/28) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 50 | 65 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 18 | 40 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 4 | 9 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.79 | 1.43 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.21 | 0.43 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 12', 0 - 1, Al Anazi A. ⚽, Youssouf Z. (A),
- 21', Al Haleel N. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Vargas M. ↓, Al Zubaidi F. ↑,
- 75', 1 - 1, Jasim A. ⚽, Al Tulayhi R. (A),
- 76', Al Jari Z. ↓, Al Swealem A. ↑,
- 76', Al Anazi A. ↓, Al Sharfa S. ↑,
- 82', Al Tulayhi R. ↓, Al Shammeri A. ↑,
- 88', Al Masoud A. ↓, Qasim H. ↑,
- 90+3', Masoud N. ↓, Al Sahihi M. ↑,
Chances of winning
Al-Najma
24.9% | Draw
25.6% | Al Fateh
49.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Al-Najma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)Al Fateh has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Al-Najma than the current prediction. (+0.1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Al Fateh than the current prediction. (+1.3%)
Al-Najma - Al Fateh Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.76 ↑
(3.61) |
3.63 ↓
(3.7) |
1.87 ↑
(1.84) |
7.5%
(9.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
What is the prediction for Al-Najma - Al Fateh?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +0.75 - Al Fateh (1.99) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Al Fateh will win
(22 of 23 users predict this - 95.65%).
Confidence interval (95%): 87.31% – 100%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Al Fateh will win (15 of 15 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 16 Selected Experts predict this event. Al Fateh (votes: 16 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
Preview Facts
- An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 1 and 10).
- Al-Najma has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Al Fateh is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 5 wins).
- Al Fateh may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Al Fateh could have a small edge in this match.
- Recently, there has been no match between the teams.
How many head-to-head matches has Al-Najma won against Al Fateh?
Al-Najma has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Al Fateh won against Al-Najma?
Al Fateh has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Al-Najma - Al Fateh were as follows:
Latest results of Al-Najma
Latest results of Al Fateh
Saudi Professional League Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Al Nassr ✔ | 30 | 26 | 1 | 3 | 81:21 | 60 | 79 |
| 2 | Al Hilal | 29 | 21 | 8 | 0 | 76:25 | 51 | 71 |
| 3 | Al Ahli SC | 29 | 20 | 6 | 3 | 55:22 | 33 | 66 |
| 4 | Al Qadsiah | 30 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 71:31 | 40 | 65 |
| 5 | Al Taawon | 30 | 14 | 7 | 9 | 52:40 | 12 | 49 |
| 6 | Al Ittihad | 29 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 47:38 | 9 | 48 |
| 7 | Al Ettifaq | 30 | 13 | 6 | 11 | 44:51 | -7 | 45 |
| 8 | Neom SC | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 38:42 | -4 | 40 |
| 9 | Al Hazem | 30 | 10 | 8 | 12 | 34:50 | -16 | 38 |
| 10 | Al Fayha | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 36:46 | -10 | 35 |
| 11 | Al Khaleej | 29 | 9 | 7 | 13 | 49:48 | 1 | 34 |
| 12 | Al Shabab | 29 | 7 | 11 | 11 | 37:43 | -6 | 32 |
| 13 | Al Fateh | 29 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 36:49 | -13 | 32 |
| 14 | Al Kholood | 30 | 9 | 3 | 18 | 39:58 | -19 | 30 |
| 15 | Damac | 30 | 5 | 11 | 14 | 27:47 | -20 | 26 |
| 16 | Al Riyadh | 30 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 30:58 | -28 | 23 |
| 17 | Al Okhdood | 30 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 24:64 | -40 | 16 |
| 18 | Al Najma ✔ | 30 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 29:72 | -43 | 11 |
Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: )
Relegation ~ Division 1
Clinched Spots for Teams
Al Nassr is Qualified for AFC Champions League (League phase )
Al Najma is Relegated to Division 1
