Result
 
                    1:2
                
               
                
                                 
                    
                    
                        30/09/2025 at  22:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
                    
 
                 
                
                
				
				                
				
				                
                 
                 
                     
                     
                                                -  CONCACAF Central American Cup - Play Offs - Quarter-finals
- Where to Watch on TV: 
                    
|  |  | 
|---|
|  Argentina | Disney+ | 
|  Brazil | Disney+ | 
|  Mexico | Tubi TV | 
|  North-central-america | Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN Norte | 
|  Peru | Disney+ | 
|  Uruguay | Disney+ | 
|  Venezuela | Disney+ | 
 
                     
                  
				
				            
            
            
                            				
                
                
				
				                 
                    
                        Match Stats
                    
                    
                        
                                
|  |  | 
|---|
| Ball Possession | 
|---|
| 32% | 68% | 
| Total shots | 
|---|
| 15 | 10 | 
| Shots on target | 
|---|
| 7 | 8 | 
| Corner Kicks | 
|---|
| 7 | 3 | 
| Yellow Cards | 
|---|
| 1 | 3 | 
| Total shots | 
|---|
| 15 | 10 | 
| Shots on target | 
|---|
| 7 | 8 | 
| Shots off target | 
|---|
| 8 | 2 | 
| Blocked Shots | 
|---|
| 0 | 0 | 
| Corner Kicks | 
|---|
| 7 | 3 | 
| Offsides | 
|---|
| 2 | 1 | 
| Free Kicks | 
|---|
| 18 | 14 | 
| Throw-ins | 
|---|
| 15 | 15 | 
| Fouls | 
|---|
| 12 | 17 | 
                        
                      
                 
				 				 
				 
				                  
                    
                        Key Moments
                    
                    
					    Here there are
                                
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 24', 1 - 0, Gomez R. (Pen), 
- 27', Parkins R. 🟨, 
- 30', 1 - 1, Campbell J. ⚽, Hernandez A. (A), 
- 37', John Kleber 🟨, 
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 46', Lucumi J. ↓, Campos D. ↑, 
- 59', Mejia C. ↓, Macias J. ↑, 
- 66', Nunez J. ↓, Crisanto L. ↑, 
- 72', Salazar A. 🟨, 
- 75', Salazar A. ↓, Bran Flores A. J. ↑, 
- 75', Cisneros R. ↓, Rodriguez D. ↑, 
- 84', Gomez R. ↓, Melendez L. ↑, 
- 85', Serrano J. ↓, Sacaza G. ↑, 
- 85', John Kleber ↓, Vazquez M. ↑, 
- 87', Campbell J. 🟨, 
- 88', Hernandez A. ↓, Demetrius T. ↑, 
- 89', Pinar F. ↓, Quesada E. ↑, 
- 90+1', 1 - 2, Campos D. ⚽, 
  
                 
				 				 
				                 
				 				 
				 
				 				 
				 
				 
				
				                 
                    
                        Chances of winning
                    
                    
                        
                                
 | Motagua 32.9%
 | Draw 32.6%
 | Alajuelense 34.5%
 | 
Initial Probability
 (when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Motagua has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)Alajuelense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Motagua than the current prediction. (-1.9%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alajuelense than the current prediction. (-5.5%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Alajuelense, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.                        
                      
                 
				 				 
				 
				                  
                    
                        Motagua - Alajuelense Odds
                    
                    
                        
                                
            
            
            
			
			
			   |  | 1 | X | 2 | Marga |  | 
			
			
			   | Avarage Now (Initially)
 | 2.83 ↓ (3.03)
 | 2.85 ↑ (2.29)
 | 2.69 ↓ (3.09)
 | 7.6% (9.2%)
 |  | 
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
  
                 
				 				 
				 
				 
            
                                
                
                                  
                    
                     Preview Facts
                    
                    
                        
                             - 1st leg result: 1-0. 2nd leg.
- Motagua is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Alajuelense has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Motagua may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Recently, Alajuelense has had a series of home games.
- The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
- In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Motagua won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:5. (average 1:2.5).                        
  
                 
                
                                  
                    
                        How many head-to-head matches has Motagua won against Alajuelense?
                    
                    
                        
                            Motagua has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
                        
                    
 
                 
                
                
                                  
                    
                        How many head-to-head matches has Alajuelense won against Motagua?
                    
                    
                        
                             Alajuelense has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
                        
                    
 
                 
                
                
                
                                 
                    
                        What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
                    
                    
                    
                        
                            The latest head-to-head matches between Motagua - Alajuelense were as follows:
                                                        
                                23.09.2025 
                                Alajuelense 
                                - 
                                Motagua 
                                0:1
                            
        
                                                        
                                31.08.2023 
                                Alajuelense 
                                - 
                                Motagua 
                                5:1
                            
        
                                                     
                      
                    
                 
                
                
                                
                    
                        Latest results of Motagua                    
                    
                    
                 
                                
                                
                    
                        Latest results of Alajuelense                    
                    
                 
				
				
				
                
                
                                 
                                 
                			   
			                       
                            
                                                
Draw
Play OffsQuarter-finals| 1 | Miguelito (4) | Xelaju (5) | 2 : 1, 0 : 2 | 
| 2 | Plaza Amador (1) | Real Espana (8) | 1 : 2, 1 : 0 | 
| 3 | Olimpia (2) | Cartagines (7) | 3 : 1, 2 : 1 | 
| 4 | Motagua (3) | Alajuelense (6) | 1 : 2, 1 : 0 | 
Semi-finals| 1 | Xelaju (5) | Real Espana (8) | 1 : 1 | 
| 2 | Olimpia (2) | Alajuelense (6) | 1 : 1 | 
Final