Result
2:1
30/04/2026 at 21:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Nacional - Clausura - Round 22
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Honduras | Deportes TV |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 53% | 47% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 9 | 6 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 9 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 9 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 4', 0 - 1, Serrano J. ⚽,
- 27', Ruiz J. ↓, Lopez E. ↑,
- 2nd Half (2 - 0)
- 46', Melendez D. ↓, Santamaria L. ↑,
- 46', Sacaza G. ↓, Cacho P. ↑,
- 46', Argueta J. ↓, Macias J. ↑,
- 54', 1 - 1, Pena K. ⚽,
- 57', Oliva D. ↓, Romario ↑,
- 59', Nunez J. ↓, Rochez C. ↑,
- 71', Serrano J. ↓, De Olivera R. ↑,
- 78', 2 - 1, Pena K. ⚽,
- 90+4', Pena K. ↓, Vasquez E. ↑,
- 90+4', Gutierrez C. ↓, Moreira R. ↑,
Chances of winning
Lobos UPNFM
13.9% | Draw
19.8% | Motagua
66.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Lobos UPNFM has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)Motagua has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Motagua's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lobos UPNFM than the current prediction. (+2.9%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Motagua than the current prediction. (-3.7%)
Lobos UPNFM - Motagua Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
6.6 ↑
(5.31) |
4.61 ↑
(4.2) |
1.38 ↓
(1.51) |
9.4%
(8.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
What is the prediction for Lobos UPNFM - Motagua?
Users Predictions:
Motagua will win
(5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:2.
Preview Facts
- This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 9 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Nacional (Clausura ~ Triangulares: )).
- Motagua is Qualified for Liga Nacional (Clausura ~ Triangulares )
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lobos UPNFM won 1.
- Lobos UPNFM has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Motagua has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Motagua may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Motagua is a strong favorite.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lobos UPNFM won 2 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 22:47. (average 1.1:2.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, Lobos UPNFM won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 10:17. (average 1:1.7).
How many head-to-head matches has Lobos UPNFM won against Motagua?
Lobos UPNFM has won 2 of their last 14 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Motagua won against Lobos UPNFM?
Motagua has won 8 of their last 14 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Lobos UPNFM - Motagua were as follows:
11.03.2026
Motagua
-
Lobos UPNFM
2:0
27.11.2025
Lobos UPNFM
-
Motagua
0:0
13.09.2025
Motagua
-
Lobos UPNFM
3:3
07.04.2025
Lobos UPNFM
-
Motagua
2:1
06.02.2025
Motagua
-
Lobos UPNFM
5:0
Latest results of Lobos UPNFM
Latest results of Motagua
Honduras Liga Nacional Table
Clausura - TriangularesGroup A | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Marathon | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Olimpia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Real Espana | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:1 | -1 | 0 |
Group B | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Motagua | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 0 | 1 |
| 2 | Genesis | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | Olancho | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
Promotion ~ Liga Nacional (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Final)
