Result
4:2
27/09/2025 at 04:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- J1 League - Round 32
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 China | K-Ball |
 Japan | DAZN Japan |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.99 | 0.99 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 62% | 38% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 9 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (565/649) | 81% (320/397) |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.99 | 0.99 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.21 | 0.52 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 9 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 10 | 7 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 0 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 37 | 21 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (565/649) | 81% (320/397) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 39% (17/44) | 27% (12/44) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 80% (175/220) | 70% (70/100) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 38% (6/16) | 29% (2/7) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.56 | 0.84 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 27 | 14 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 4 | 11 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 76% (13/17) | 73% (16/22) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 65 | 45 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 10 | 39 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 8 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 0 | 5 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.52 | 2.21 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -1.48 | -1.79 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 15', 0 - 1, Arai T. ⚽, Shimamura T. (A),
- 37', 1 - 1, Usami T. ⚽, Yamashita R. (A),
- 2nd Half (3 - 1)
- 49', 1 - 2, Okumura J. ⚽, Hasegawa M. (A),
- 60', 2 - 2, Welton ⚽, Hummet D. (A),
- 61', Yamashita R. ↓, Juan Alano ↑,
- 61', Taniguchi K. ↓, Ohara M. ↑,
- 64', 3 - 2, Abe S. ⚽,
- 67', Okumura J. ↓, Boudah A. ↑,
- 67', Shimamura T. ↓, Moraes ↑,
- 75', 4 - 2, Hummet D. ⚽,
- 76', Mitsuta M. ↓, Suzuki T. ↑,
- 80', Arai T. ↓, Takagi Y. ↑,
- 80', Hasegawa M. ↓, Wakatsuki Y. ↑,
- 83', Usami T. ↓, Mito R. ↑,
- 83', Hummet D. ↓, Jebali I. ↑,
- 83', Welton ↓, Okunuki K. ↑,
Chances of winning
Gamba Osaka
58.8% | Draw
22.7% | Albirex Niigata
18.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Gamba Osaka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)Albirex Niigata has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gamba Osaka than the current prediction. (-0.4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Albirex Niigata than the current prediction. (+0.7%)
Gamba Osaka - Albirex Niigata Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.62 ↓
(1.69) |
4.14 ↑
(3.88) |
5.13 ↑
(4.68) |
5.6%
(6.3%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Gamba Osaka - Albirex Niigata?
Users Predictions:
Gamba Osaka will win
(17 of 18 users predict this - 94.44%).
Confidence interval (95%): 83.85% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Gamba Osaka will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 9 and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ J2 League).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gamba Osaka won 3.
- Gamba Osaka is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).
- Niigata has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- Niigata may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, Gamba Osaka has had a series of home games.
- In this match, Gamba Osaka is the team to beat.
- There will not play in Gamba Osaka: Sasaki S.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Niigata: Danilo Gomes
(Knee Injury)
Hoshi Y.
(Knee Injury)
- We predict that Gamba Osaka will win today's game, with odds of 1.71.
- In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Gamba Osaka won 9 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 31:16. (average 1.8:0.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, Gamba Osaka won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 15:5. (average 1.9:0.6).
How many head-to-head matches has Gamba Osaka won against Albirex Niigata?
Gamba Osaka has won 3 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Albirex Niigata won against Gamba Osaka?
Albirex Niigata has won 0 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Gamba Osaka - Albirex Niigata were as follows:
29.03.2025
Albirex Niigata
-
Gamba Osaka
3:3
30.11.2024
Albirex Niigata
-
Gamba Osaka
0:1
02.03.2024
Gamba Osaka
-
Albirex Niigata
1:0
17.09.2023
Gamba Osaka
-
Albirex Niigata
1:1
28.05.2023
Albirex Niigata
-
Gamba Osaka
1:3
Latest results of Gamba Osaka
Latest results of Albirex Niigata
Japan J1 League Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Kashima Antlers | 35 | 20 | 7 | 8 | 53:29 | 24 | 67 |
| 2 | Kashiwa Reysol | 35 | 18 | 12 | 5 | 55:33 | 22 | 66 |
| 3 | Kyoto | 35 | 17 | 11 | 7 | 59:37 | 22 | 62 |
| 4 | Vissel Kobe | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 43:28 | 15 | 61 |
| 5 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 35 | 17 | 8 | 10 | 39:26 | 13 | 59 |
| 6 | Machida | 35 | 16 | 9 | 10 | 49:35 | 14 | 57 |
| 7 | Kawasaki Frontale | 35 | 15 | 11 | 9 | 65:50 | 15 | 56 |
| 8 | Urawa Reds | 35 | 14 | 11 | 10 | 40:36 | 4 | 53 |
| 9 | Gamba Osaka | 35 | 16 | 5 | 14 | 48:52 | -4 | 53 |
| 10 | Cerezo Osaka | 35 | 13 | 10 | 12 | 54:50 | 4 | 49 |
| 11 | FC Tokyo | 35 | 12 | 9 | 14 | 39:47 | -8 | 45 |
| 12 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 35 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 39:44 | -5 | 44 |
| 13 | Verdy | 35 | 11 | 9 | 15 | 22:36 | -14 | 42 |
| 14 | Avispa Fukuoka | 34 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 32:37 | -5 | 41 |
| 15 | Okayama | 35 | 11 | 8 | 16 | 31:40 | -9 | 41 |
| 16 | Nagoya Grampus | 35 | 10 | 10 | 15 | 42:52 | -10 | 40 |
| 17 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 35 | 10 | 7 | 18 | 39:44 | -5 | 37 |
| 18 | Yokohama FC | 35 | 8 | 8 | 19 | 23:41 | -18 | 32 |
| 19 | Shonan Bellmare ✔ | 34 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 29:58 | -29 | 26 |
| 20 | Albirex Niigata ✔ | 34 | 4 | 10 | 20 | 30:56 | -26 | 22 |
Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2
Relegation ~ J2 League
Clinched Spots for Teams
Shonan Bellmare is Relegated to J2 League
Albirex Niigata is Relegated to J2 League
