Albirex Niigata vs Kashima Antlers – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

23/08/2025 at 06:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Denka Big Swan Stadium (Niigata).

J1 League - Round 27
Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.28	1.43
Ball Possession
51%	49%
Total shots
8	13
Shots on target
4	4
Big Chances
2	3
Corner Kicks
4	8
Passes
78% (294/379)	78% (293/378)
Yellow Cards
1	2
Expected Goals (xG)
1.28	1.43
xG on target (xGOT)
1.61	1.91
Total shots
8	13
Shots on target
4	4
Shots off target
2	3
Blocked Shots
2	6
Shots inside the Box
7	9
Shots outside the Box
1	4
Hit the Woodwork
0	1
Big Chances
2	3
Corner Kicks
4	8
Touches in opposition box
25	30
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
0	2
Free Kicks
8	11
Passes
78% (294/379)	78% (293/378)
Long passes
42% (29/69)	44% (22/50)
Passes in final third
69% (88/127)	70% (89/128)
Crosses
18% (5/28)	35% (6/17)
Expected assists (xA)
0.65	1.42
Throw-ins
19	15
Fouls
12	8
Tackles
56% (5/9)	91% (10/11)
Duels won
32	51
Clearances
28	31
Interceptions
4	5
Errors leading to shot
1	0
Errors leading to goal
1	1
Goalkeeper Saves
2	3
xGOT faced
1.91	1.61
Goals prevented
-0.09	0.61

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 1)
4', 0 - 1, Suzuki Y. ⚽, Elber (A),
17', 1 - 1, Moraes ⚽,
45+5', Boudah A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Funabashi Y. ↓, Cavric A. ↑,
50', Higuchi Y. 🟨,
52', Chinen K. 🟨,
66', Moraes ↓, Shimamura T. ↑,
66', Ohara M. ↓, Okumura J. ↑,
69', Tagawa K. ↓, Leo Ceara ↑,
70', Elber ↓, Matsumura Y. ↑,
84', Chinen K. ↓, Misao K. ↑,
87', 1 - 2, Leo Ceara ⚽, Ogawa R. (A),
88', Nono K. ↓, Tsukui K. ↑,
89', Arai T. ↓, Taniguchi K. ↑,

Highlights

Chances of winning

Albirex Niigata
24.3%

Draw
27.5%

Kashima Antlers
48.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.4%

28%

43.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.5%

28.1%

43.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Albirex Niigata has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

Kashima Antlers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Albirex Niigata than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kashima Antlers than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

Albirex Niigata - Kashima Antlers Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.11 ↑ (3.32)	3.53 ↑ (3.37)	2.01 ↓ (2.16)	2.5% (6.3%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

What is the prediction for Albirex Niigata - Kashima Antlers?

Users Predictions: Kashima Antlers will win (20 of 23 users predict this - 86.96%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.2% – 100%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Kashima Antlers will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ J2 League and 5).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Niigata won 0.
Niigata has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).
Kashima is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
Kashima may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
Recently, Kashima has had a series of home games.
Kashima will hold a modest advantage in this match.
There will not play in Niigata: Danilo Gomes (Knee Injury) Fujiwara S. (Yellow Cards) Hoshi Y. (Knee Injury)
There will not play in Kashima: Anzai K. (Knee Injury) Morooka S. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Sekigawa I. (Knee Injury) Shimoda Y. (Foot Injury) Tokuda H. (Broken ankle)
In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Niigata won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 15:34. (average 0.8:1.8).
Including home matches between the teams, Niigata won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 8:20. (average 0.9:2.2).

How many head-to-head matches has Albirex Niigata won against Kashima Antlers?

Albirex Niigata has won 1 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Kashima Antlers won against Albirex Niigata?

Kashima Antlers has won 5 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Albirex Niigata - Kashima Antlers were as follows:

26.02.2025 Kashima Antlers - Albirex Niigata 2:1

05.10.2024 Albirex Niigata - Kashima Antlers 0:4

16.06.2024 Kashima Antlers - Albirex Niigata 1:1

26.08.2023 Kashima Antlers - Albirex Niigata 2:0

18.06.2023 Kashima Antlers - Albirex Niigata 2:0

Latest results of Albirex Niigata

16.08.2025 Albirex Niigata - Kawasaki Frontale 1:1 ✺

11.08.2025 Cerezo Osaka - Albirex Niigata 3:1 ✺

20.07.2025 Albirex Niigata - Sanfrecce Hiroshima 0:2 ✺

05.07.2025 Kyoto Sanga - Albirex Niigata 2:1 ✺

29.06.2025 Albirex Niigata - Machida Zelvia 0:4 ✺

Latest results of Kashima Antlers

16.08.2025 Kashima Antlers - Fukushima United 4:4 ✺

16.08.2025 Kashima Antlers - Avispa Fukuoka 1:1 ✺

10.08.2025 Tokyo - Kashima Antlers 0:1 ✺

06.08.2025 Kashima Antlers - Avispa Fukuoka 3:2 ✺

20.07.2025 Kashima Antlers - Kashiwa Reysol 3:2 ✺

Japan J1 League Table

2025

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Kyoto	28	16	6	6	52:30	22	54
2	Kashiwa Reysol	28	15	8	5	42:28	14	53
3	Vissel Kobe	29	16	5	8	37:26	11	53
4	Kashima Antlers	28	16	4	8	41:27	14	52
5	Machida	29	15	5	9	45:31	14	50
6	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	29	15	5	9	34:20	14	50
7	Urawa Reds	28	13	8	7	39:30	9	47
8	Kawasaki Frontale	28	12	9	7	50:38	12	45
9	Gamba Osaka	29	12	4	13	38:44	-6	40
10	Cerezo Osaka	28	10	9	9	42:39	3	39
11	Okayama	28	11	6	11	26:28	-2	39
12	Avispa Fukuoka	28	9	10	9	28:28	0	37
13	Shimizu S-Pulse	28	8	9	11	31:36	-5	33
14	Verdy	28	8	8	12	16:28	-12	32
15	FC Tokyo	28	8	7	13	30:42	-12	31
16	Nagoya Grampus	28	7	8	13	34:42	-8	29
17	Yokohama F. Marinos	28	6	7	15	26:35	-9	25
18	Shonan Bellmare	28	6	7	15	26:47	-21	25
19	Yokohama FC	28	6	5	17	18:35	-17	23
20	Albirex Niigata	28	4	8	16	27:48	-21	20

      Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2
      Relegation ~ J2 League