Kyoto Sanga vs Albirex Niigata – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

05/07/2025 at 06:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Sanga Stadium by Kyocera (Kameoka).

J1 League - Round 23
Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.72	0.96
Ball Possession
42%	58%
Total shots
14	12
Shots on target
6	3
Big Chances
4	0
Corner Kicks
6	7
Passes
72% (216/299)	78% (323/416)
Yellow Cards
0	3
Expected Goals (xG)
1.72	0.96
xG on target (xGOT)
1.55	1.05
Total shots
14	12
Shots on target
6	3
Shots off target
6	8
Blocked Shots
2	1
Shots inside the Box
9	4
Shots outside the Box
5	8
Hit the Woodwork
2	0
Big Chances
4	0
Corner Kicks
6	7
Touches in opposition box
19	16
Accurate through passes
1	0
Offsides
0	1
Free Kicks
8	6
Passes
72% (216/299)	78% (323/416)
Long passes
36% (15/42)	58% (29/50)
Passes in final third
67% (90/134)	60% (50/83)
Crosses
22% (5/23)	24% (5/21)
Expected assists (xA)
0.93	0.33
Throw-ins
22	25
Fouls
6	8
Tackles
80% (12/15)	64% (7/11)
Duels won
43	51
Clearances
30	38
Interceptions
12	6
Errors leading to shot
0	1
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
2	4
xGOT faced
1.05	1.55
Goals prevented
0.05	-0.45

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (2 - 1)
29', 0 - 1, Danilo Gomes ⚽, Kasai K. (A),
34', 1 - 1, Marco Tulio ⚽, Hirato T. (A),
42', Danilo Gomes 🟨,
45+5', 2 - 1, Marco Tulio ⚽, Hara T. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Danilo Gomes ↓, Ota S. ↑,
57', Kasai K. ↓, Ono Y. ↑,
59', Nagasawa S. ↓, Matsuda T. ↑,
64', Hasegawa M. 🟨,
77', Fitzgerald M. 🟨,
81', Hayakawa F. ↓, Miyamoto E. ↑,
86', Kawasaki S. ↓, Leo Gomes ↑,
86', Marco Tulio ↓, Murilo de Souza ↑,
87', Hasegawa M. ↓, Yamura K. ↑,
90+4', Hirato T. ↓, Asada S. ↑,
90+4', Hara T. ↓, Hiraga S. ↑,

Highlights

Chances of winning

Kyoto Sanga
48.3%

Draw
26.9%

Albirex Niigata
24.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.3%

28.1%

26.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.3%

27.5%

25.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kyoto Sanga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Albirex Niigata has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kyoto Sanga than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Albirex Niigata than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Kyoto Sanga - Albirex Niigata Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.96 ↓ (2.11)	3.47 ↑ (3.4)	3.76 ↑ (3.61)	6.5% (4.5%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

What is the prediction for Kyoto Sanga - Albirex Niigata?

Users Predictions: Kyoto Sanga will win (34 of 38 users predict this - 89.47%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.71% – 99.23%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Kyoto Sanga will win (11 of 11 users predict this - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.

Preview Facts

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 4 and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ J2 League).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kyoto won 2.
Kyoto is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).
Niigata has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
Kyoto may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
Kyoto might have a minor edge in this game.
There will not play in Kyoto: Sato K. (Yellow Cards)
There are questionable in Kyoto: Marco Tulio (Injury)
In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Kyoto won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 11:16. (average 0.8:1.2).
Including home matches between the teams, Kyoto won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 2:7. (average 0.3:1.2).

How many head-to-head matches has Kyoto Sanga won against Albirex Niigata?

Kyoto Sanga has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Albirex Niigata won against Kyoto Sanga?

Albirex Niigata has won 3 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Kyoto Sanga - Albirex Niigata were as follows:

19.04.2025 Albirex Niigata - Kyoto Sanga 1:2

12.08.2024 Albirex Niigata - Kyoto Sanga 2:0

20.04.2024 Kyoto Sanga - Albirex Niigata 0:1

28.10.2023 Kyoto Sanga - Albirex Niigata 0:1

11.06.2023 Albirex Niigata - Kyoto Sanga 1:3

Latest results of Kyoto Sanga

21.06.2025 Kashiwa Reysol - Kyoto Sanga 3:3 ✺

11.06.2025 Kyoto Sanga - Nara Club 1:0 ✺

31.05.2025 Kyoto Sanga - Tokyo 3:0 ✺

25.05.2025 Tokyo Verdy - Kyoto Sanga 1:0 ✺

21.05.2025 Kyoto Sanga - Cerezo Osaka 1:4 ✺

Latest results of Albirex Niigata

29.06.2025 Albirex Niigata - Machida Zelvia 0:4 ✺

25.06.2025 Kawasaki Frontale - Albirex Niigata 3:1 ✺

21.06.2025 Avispa Fukuoka - Albirex Niigata 3:2 ✺

15.06.2025 Albirex Niigata - Yokohama F. Marinos 1:0 ✺

11.06.2025 Albirex Niigata - Fukuyama City 1:0 ✺

Japan J1 League Table

2025

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Kyoto	27	15	6	6	47:30	17	51
2	Kashima Antlers	27	16	3	8	40:26	14	51
3	Machida	28	15	5	8	42:26	16	50
4	Kashiwa Reysol	27	14	8	5	40:27	13	50
5	Vissel Kobe	28	15	5	8	36:26	10	50
6	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	28	15	4	9	33:19	14	49
7	Urawa Reds	27	12	8	7	38:30	8	44
8	Kawasaki Frontale	27	11	9	7	45:35	10	42
9	Okayama	27	11	6	10	26:23	3	39
10	Cerezo Osaka	27	10	8	9	41:38	3	38
11	Avispa Fukuoka	27	9	10	8	27:26	1	37
12	Gamba Osaka	28	11	4	13	33:40	-7	37
13	Shimizu S-Pulse	27	8	8	11	30:35	-5	32
14	Verdy	27	8	7	12	16:28	-12	31
15	FC Tokyo	27	8	6	13	29:41	-12	30
16	Nagoya Grampus	27	7	7	13	33:41	-8	28
17	Yokohama F. Marinos	27	6	7	14	26:34	-8	25
18	Shonan Bellmare	27	6	7	14	22:42	-20	25
19	Yokohama FC	27	6	4	17	18:35	-17	22
20	Albirex Niigata	27	4	8	15	27:47	-20	20

      Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2
      Relegation ~ J2 League