Grêmio vs Alianza Lima – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Copa Sudamericana Grêmio - Alianza Lima
Result
1:1
23/07/2025 at 20:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Copa Sudamericana - Play Offs - 1/16-finals
  • Referee: Herrera D. (Arg)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
argentinaArgentinaDisney+, ESPN 2
asiaAsiabeIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 6, TOD
australiaAustraliabeIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
belarusBelarusOkko Sport
bosnia-and-herzegovinaBosnia-and-herzegovinaArena Sport 1
brazilBrazilParamount+
bulgariaBulgariaMax Sport 4
canadaCanadabeIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
chileChileDisney+
colombiaColombiaDisney+, ESPN
croatiaCroatiaArena Sport 1
germanyGermanyMagenta Sport, Sportdigital1+
greeceGreeceCOSMOTE Sport 3
indonesiaIndonesiaMola TV
israelIsraelSport 2
italyItalyComo TV
malaysiaMalaysiaMola
mexicoMexicoDisney+
netherlandsNetherlandsCanal+, ESPN 1
new-zealandNew-zealandbeIN Connect
peruPeruDisney+, ESPN
polandPolandPolsat Sport 2
portugalPortugalSport TV1
sloveniaSloveniaArena Sport 1
south-americaSouth-americaESPN South
spainSpainLaLiga+
turkeyTurkeyS Sport, S Sport+
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsabeIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+, ESPN, Inter

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.010.15
Ball Possession
59%41%
Total shots
155
Shots on target
42
Big Chances
21
Corner Kicks
102
Passes
81% (360/443)71% (238/334)
Yellow Cards
35
Red Cards
01
Expected Goals (xG)
1.010.15
xG on target (xGOT)
1.350.16
Total shots
155
Shots on target
42
Shots off target
83
Blocked Shots
30
Shots inside the Box
102
Shots outside the Box
53
Hit the Woodwork
10
Big Chances
21
Corner Kicks
102
Touches in opposition box
315
Accurate through passes
01
Offsides
11
Free Kicks
135
Passes
81% (360/443)71% (238/334)
Long passes
46% (21/46)40% (27/68)
Passes in final third
68% (103/151)60% (53/89)
Crosses
28% (11/40)13% (1/8)
Expected assists (xA)
1.390.46
Throw-ins
1817
Fouls
513
Tackles
44% (7/16)75% (12/16)
Duels won
6054
Clearances
1339
Interceptions
1810
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
13
xGOT faced
0.161.35
Goals prevented
-0.020.35

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 4', Garces R. 🟨,
  • 10', Walter Kannemann 🟨,
  • 15', Mano Menezes 🟨,
  • 36', Paolo Guerrero 🟨,
  • 42', Zambrano C. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 46', Olivera C. , Andre Henrique ,
  • 56', 1 - 0, Gustavo Martins , Marlon (A),
  • 57', Villasanti M. , Edenilson ,
  • 59', Andre Henrique 🟨,
  • 68', Paolo Guerrero , Barcos H. ,
  • 69', Pena S. , Castillo J. ,
  • 74', Gustavo Martins , Pavon C. ,
  • 82', Quevedo K. , Archimbaud J. ,
  • 82', Alysson , Amuzu F. ,
  • 90+1', Zambrano C. 🟨,
  • 90+2', Castillo E. , Estrada J. ,
  • 90+4', Freitas dos Santos R. 🟨,
  • 90+5', Viscarra G. 🟨,
  • 90+6', 1 - 1, Barcos H. , Gaibor F. (A),

Highlights

Chances of winning


Grêmio
58.2%
Draw
25%
Alianza Lima
16.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
71.5% 17.6% 10.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.2% 16.5% 11.6%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.3%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Grêmio's form might have worsened.
  • Alianza Lima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Alianza Lima's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+9%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Grêmio, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alianza Lima than the current prediction. (-5.2%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Alianza Lima, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • Grêmio - Alianza Lima Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.6
    (1.31)
    3.73
    (5.33)
    5.56
    (8.63)
    7.2%
    (6.7%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
  • What is the prediction for Grêmio - Alianza Lima?
  • Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Grêmio will win (votes: 6 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Grêmio: 45%100%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Grêmio (votes: 1 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • 1st leg result: 0-2. 2nd leg.
    • Grêmio has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
    • Alianza Lima is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
    • In this match, Grêmio is seen as the favorite.
    • In the last 1 head-to-head match, Grêmio won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Grêmio - Alianza Lima were as follows:
    16.07.2025 Alianza Lima - Grêmio 2:0
    Latest results of Grêmio
    19.07.2025 Vasco da Gama - Grêmio 1:1
    16.07.2025 Alianza Lima - Grêmio 2:0
    13.07.2025 Cruzeiro - Grêmio 4:1
    12.06.2025 Grêmio - Corinthians 1:1
    Latest results of Alianza Lima
    Draw
    Play Offs

    1/16-finals
    1Alianza LimaGremio1 : 1, 2 : 0
    2ByeU. Catolica
    3U. De ChileGuarani1 : 2, 5 : 0
    4ByeIndependiente
    5Central CordobaCerro Largo3 : 0, 0 : 0
    6ByeLanus
    7BahiaAmerica De Cali0 : 2, 0 : 0
    8ByeFluminense
    9BolivarPalestino3 : 0, 3 : 0
    10ByeCienciano
    11BucaramangaAtletico-MG1 : 1, 0 : 1
    12ByeGodoy Cruz
    13Ind. del ValleVasco1 : 1, 4 : 0
    14ByeMushuc Runa
    15SA Bulo BuloOnce Caldas0 : 4, 0 : 3
    16ByeHuracan

    1/8-finals
    1Alianza LimaU. Catolica
    2U. De ChileIndependiente
    3Central CordobaLanus
    4America De CaliFluminense
    5BolivarCienciano
    6Atletico-MGGodoy Cruz
    7Ind. del ValleMushuc Runa
    8Once CaldasHuracan

    Quarter-finals
    1TBD #1TBD #2
    2TBD #3TBD #4
    3TBD #5TBD #6
    4TBD #7TBD #8

    Semi-finals
    1TBD #1TBD #2
    2TBD #3TBD #4

    Final
    1TBD #1TBD #2