Result
1:1
23/07/2025 at 20:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Copa Sudamericana - Play Offs - 1/16-finals
- Referee: Herrera D. (Arg)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | Disney+, ESPN 2 |
 Asia | beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 6, TOD |
 Australia | beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3 |
 Belarus | Okko Sport |
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 1 |
 Brazil | Paramount+ |
 Bulgaria | Max Sport 4 |
 Canada | beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol |
 Chile | Disney+ |
 Colombia | Disney+, ESPN |
 Croatia | Arena Sport 1 |
 Germany | Magenta Sport, Sportdigital1+ |
 Greece | COSMOTE Sport 3 |
 Indonesia | Mola TV |
 Israel | Sport 2 |
 Italy | Como TV |
 Malaysia | Mola |
 Mexico | Disney+ |
 Netherlands | Canal+, ESPN 1 |
 New-zealand | beIN Connect |
 Peru | Disney+, ESPN |
 Poland | Polsat Sport 2 |
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
 Slovenia | Arena Sport 1 |
 South-america | ESPN South |
 Spain | LaLiga+ |
 Turkey | S Sport, S Sport+ |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz |
 Venezuela | Disney+, ESPN, Inter |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.01 | 0.15 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 59% | 41% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 5 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 81% (360/443) | 71% (238/334) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.01 | 0.15 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.35 | 0.16 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 5 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 3 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 10 | 2 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 31 | 5 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 13 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 81% (360/443) | 71% (238/334) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 46% (21/46) | 40% (27/68) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 68% (103/151) | 60% (53/89) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 28% (11/40) | 13% (1/8) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.39 | 0.46 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 18 | 17 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 5 | 13 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 44% (7/16) | 75% (12/16) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 60 | 54 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 13 | 39 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 18 | 10 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.16 | 1.35 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.02 | 0.35 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 4', Garces R. 🟨,
- 10', Walter Kannemann 🟨,
- 15', Mano Menezes 🟨,
- 36', Paolo Guerrero 🟨,
- 42', Zambrano C. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 46', Olivera C. ↓, Andre Henrique ↑,
- 56', 1 - 0, Gustavo Martins ⚽, Marlon (A),
- 57', Villasanti M. ↓, Edenilson ↑,
- 59', Andre Henrique 🟨,
- 68', Paolo Guerrero ↓, Barcos H. ↑,
- 69', Pena S. ↓, Castillo J. ↑,
- 74', Gustavo Martins ↓, Pavon C. ↑,
- 82', Quevedo K. ↓, Archimbaud J. ↑,
- 82', Alysson ↓, Amuzu F. ↑,
- 90+1', Zambrano C. 🟨,
- 90+2', Castillo E. ↓, Estrada J. ↑,
- 90+4', Freitas dos Santos R. 🟨,
- 90+5', Viscarra G. 🟨,
- 90+6', 1 - 1, Barcos H. ⚽, Gaibor F. (A),
Chances of winning
Grêmio
58.2% | Draw
25% | Alianza Lima
16.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.3%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Grêmio's form might have worsened.Alianza Lima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Alianza Lima's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+9%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Grêmio, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alianza Lima than the current prediction. (-5.2%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Alianza Lima, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Grêmio - Alianza Lima Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.6 ↑
(1.31) |
3.73 ↓
(5.33) |
5.56 ↓
(8.63) |
7.2%
(6.7%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Grêmio - Alianza Lima?
Users Predictions:
8 users predict this event. Grêmio will win (votes: 6 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Grêmio: 45% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Grêmio (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- 1st leg result: 0-2. 2nd leg.
- Grêmio has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Alianza Lima is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- In this match, Grêmio is seen as the favorite.
- In the last 1 head-to-head match, Grêmio won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.
How many head-to-head matches has Grêmio won against Alianza Lima?
Grêmio has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Alianza Lima won against Grêmio?
Alianza Lima has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Grêmio - Alianza Lima were as follows:
16.07.2025
Alianza Lima
-
Grêmio
2:0
Latest results of Alianza Lima
Draw
Play Offs1/16-finals| 1 | Alianza Lima | Gremio | 1 : 1, 2 : 0 |
| 2 | Bye | U. Catolica | |
| 3 | U. De Chile | Guarani | 1 : 2, 5 : 0 |
| 4 | Bye | Independiente | |
| 5 | Central Cordoba | Cerro Largo | 3 : 0, 0 : 0 |
| 6 | Bye | Lanus | |
| 7 | Bahia | America De Cali | 0 : 2, 0 : 0 |
| 8 | Bye | Fluminense | |
| 9 | Bolivar | Palestino | 3 : 0, 3 : 0 |
| 10 | Bye | Cienciano | |
| 11 | Bucaramanga | Atletico-MG | 1 : 1, 0 : 1 |
| 12 | Bye | Godoy Cruz | |
| 13 | Ind. del Valle | Vasco | 1 : 1, 4 : 0 |
| 14 | Bye | Mushuc Runa | |
| 15 | SA Bulo Bulo | Once Caldas | 0 : 4, 0 : 3 |
| 16 | Bye | Huracan | |
1/8-finals| 1 | Alianza Lima | U. Catolica | 2 : 1, 2 : 0 |
| 2 | U. De Chile | Independiente | 1 : 1, 1 : 0 |
| 3 | Central Cordoba | Lanus | 0 : 2, 1 : 0 |
| 4 | America De Cali | Fluminense | 0 : 2, 1 : 2 |
| 5 | Bolivar | Cienciano | 2 : 0, 2 : 0 |
| 6 | Atletico-MG | Godoy Cruz | 1 : 0, 2 : 1 |
| 7 | Ind. del Valle | Mushuc Runa | 2 : 2, 1 : 0 |
| 8 | Once Caldas | Huracan | 3 : 1, 1 : 0 |
Quarter-finals| 1 | Alianza Lima | TBD #2 | |
| 2 | Lanus | Fluminense | |
| 3 | Bolivar | Atletico-MG | |
| 4 | Ind. del Valle | Once Caldas | |
