Result
1:2
20/09/2025 at 10:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 6
- Referee: Goncalves J. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Portugal | Sport TV4 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 6, MEGOGO Ukraine |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.47 | 1.11 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 58% | 42% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 78% (271/348) | 73% (183/249) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.47 | 1.11 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.21 | 1.54 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 30 | 15 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 7 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 18 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 78% (271/348) | 73% (183/249) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 44% (27/61) | 31% (15/49) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 62% (72/117) | 56% (41/73) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 30% (7/23) | 33% (4/12) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.10 | 1.08 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 30 | 16 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 18 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 67% (8/12) | 50% (5/10) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 56 | 52 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 16 | 44 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.54 | 2.21 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.46 | 1.21 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 4', Ramirez J. (Pen),
- 5', Liziero 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 2)
- 57', Fontan J. 🟨,
- 62', Lee H. ↓, Gozalbez P. ↑,
- 66', 1 - 0, Ramirez J. (Pen),
- 71', Nandin D. ↓, Barbero I. ↑,
- 71', Trezza A. ↓, Mansilla B. ↑,
- 74', 1 - 1, Popovic B. ⚽, Djouahra N. (A),
- 78', Pablo Ruan ↓, Witi ↑,
- 79', Matheus Dias 🟥,
- 82', Labidi C. ↓, Ulisses ↑,
- 84', Fukui T. ↓, van Ee E. ↑,
- 84', Djouahra N. ↓, Puche ↑,
- 85', Fontan J. 🟨,
- 88', Leo Santos ↓, Soares F. ↑,
- 89', 1 - 2, van Ee E. ⚽, Barbero I. (A),
- 90+6', Ramirez J. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Nacional
41.1% | Draw
29.1% | Arouca
29.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)Arouca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (-4.4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (+4.5%)
Nacional - Arouca Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.33 ↓
(2.6) |
3.26 ↓
(3.3) |
3.18 ↑
(2.8) |
5%
(4.5%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Nacional - Arouca?
Users Predictions:
10 users predict this event. Nacional will win (votes: 7 - 70%). Arouca will win (votes: 1 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nacional: 41.6% – 98.4%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 13 and 12).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 1.
- Nacional is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Arouca has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
- There will not play in Nacional: Baeza M.
(Knee Injury)
Deivison
(Inactive)
Fernandes I.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Arouca: Flores M.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Arouca: Sola A.
(Inactive)
- In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 13:19. (average 1:1.5).
- Including home matches between the teams, Nacional won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:8. (average 1.3:1.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Nacional won against Arouca?
Nacional has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Arouca won against Nacional?
Arouca has won 2 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Nacional - Arouca were as follows:
01.02.2025
Nacional
-
Arouca
1:2
25.08.2024
Arouca
-
Nacional
1:0
Latest results of Nacional
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 19:1 | 18 | 21 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 19:4 | 15 | 18 |
| 3 | Benfica | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 13:4 | 9 | 17 |
| 4 | Moreirense | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10:8 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Gil Vicente | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8:4 | 4 | 13 |
| 6 | Famalicao | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 7:3 | 4 | 12 |
| 7 | Braga | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11:7 | 4 | 9 |
| 8 | Santa Clara | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5:8 | -3 | 8 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7:11 | -4 | 8 |
| 10 | Arouca | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9:18 | -9 | 8 |
| 11 | Estrela | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6:6 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | Alverca | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8:11 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Nacional | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6:10 | -4 | 7 |
| 14 | Casa Pia | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6:11 | -5 | 7 |
| 15 | Estoril | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8:11 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Rio Ave | 7 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 8:13 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Tondela | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4:11 | -7 | 5 |
| 18 | AFS | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4:17 | -13 | 1 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
