Result
1:2
20/09/2025 at 10:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 6
- Referee: Goncalves J. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Portugal | Sport TV4 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 6, MEGOGO Ukraine |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.47 | 1.11 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 58% | 42% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 78% (271/348) | 73% (183/249) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.47 | 1.11 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.21 | 1.54 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 30 | 15 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 7 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 18 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 78% (271/348) | 73% (183/249) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 44% (27/61) | 31% (15/49) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 62% (72/117) | 56% (41/73) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 30% (7/23) | 33% (4/12) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.10 | 1.08 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 30 | 16 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 18 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 67% (8/12) | 50% (5/10) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 56 | 52 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 16 | 44 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.54 | 2.21 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.46 | 1.21 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 4', Ramirez J. (Pen),
- 5', Liziero 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 2)
- 57', Fontan J. 🟨,
- 62', Lee H. ↓, Gozalbez P. ↑,
- 66', 1 - 0, Ramirez J. (Pen),
- 71', Nandin D. ↓, Barbero I. ↑,
- 71', Trezza A. ↓, Mansilla B. ↑,
- 74', 1 - 1, Popovic B. ⚽, Djouahra N. (A),
- 78', Pablo Ruan ↓, Witi ↑,
- 79', Matheus Dias 🟥,
- 82', Labidi C. ↓, Ulisses ↑,
- 84', Fukui T. ↓, van Ee E. ↑,
- 84', Djouahra N. ↓, Puche ↑,
- 85', Fontan J. 🟨,
- 88', Leo Santos ↓, Soares F. ↑,
- 89', 1 - 2, van Ee E. ⚽, Barbero I. (A),
- 90+6', Ramirez J. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Nacional
41.1% | Draw
29.1% | Arouca
29.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Nacional - Arouca Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.33 ↓
(2.6) |
3.26 ↓
(3.3) |
3.18 ↑
(2.8) |
5%
(4.5%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Nacional - Arouca?
Users Predictions:
10 users predict this event. Nacional will win (votes: 7 - 70%). Arouca will win (votes: 1 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nacional: 41.6% – 98.4%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Arouca (votes: 1 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH -0.25 - Arouca (1.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH 0, 1st Half - Arouca (2.21) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Arouca (votes: 3 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 13 and 12).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 1.
- Nacional is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Arouca has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
- There will not play in Nacional: Baeza M.
(Knee Injury)
Deivison
(Inactive)
Fernandes I.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Arouca: Flores M.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Arouca: Sola A.
(Inactive)
- In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 13:19. (average 1:1.5).
- Including home matches between the teams, Nacional won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:8. (average 1.3:1.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Nacional won against Arouca?
Nacional has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Arouca won against Nacional?
Arouca has won 2 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Nacional - Arouca were as follows:
01.02.2025
Nacional
-
Arouca
1:2
25.08.2024
Arouca
-
Nacional
1:0
Latest results of Nacional
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 21 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 42:7 | 35 | 56 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 21 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 55:12 | 43 | 52 |
| 3 | Benfica | 21 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 44:12 | 32 | 49 |
| 4 | Braga | 21 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 44:18 | 26 | 39 |
| 5 | Gil Vicente | 21 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 31:17 | 14 | 37 |
| 6 | Famalicao | 21 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 27:20 | 7 | 32 |
| 7 | Estoril | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 43:35 | 8 | 30 |
| 8 | Moreirense | 21 | 9 | 3 | 9 | 27:29 | -2 | 30 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 23:30 | -7 | 28 |
| 10 | Alverca | 21 | 7 | 3 | 11 | 21:36 | -15 | 24 |
| 11 | Estrela | 21 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 25:37 | -12 | 23 |
| 12 | Arouca | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 26:46 | -20 | 23 |
| 13 | Nacional | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 27:30 | -3 | 21 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 21 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 22:41 | -19 | 20 |
| 15 | Casa Pia | 21 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 22:39 | -17 | 19 |
| 16 | Santa Clara | 21 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 16:26 | -10 | 17 |
| 17 | Tondela | 21 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 14:35 | -21 | 14 |
| 18 | AFS | 21 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 15:54 | -39 | 5 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
