Nacional vs Arouca – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Liga Portugal Nacional - Arouca
Result
1:2
20/09/2025 at 10:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Liga Portugal - Round 6
  • Referee: Goncalves J. (Por)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
finlandFinlandVeikkaus TV
portugalPortugalSport TV4
ukraineUkraineMEGOGO Futbol 6, MEGOGO Ukraine

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
2.471.11
Ball Possession
58%42%
Total shots
1510
Shots on target
63
Big Chances
32
Corner Kicks
35
Passes
78% (271/348)73% (183/249)
Yellow Cards
22
Red Cards
11
Expected Goals (xG)
2.471.11
xG on target (xGOT)
2.211.54
Total shots
1510
Shots on target
63
Shots off target
64
Blocked Shots
33
Shots inside the Box
75
Shots outside the Box
85
Hit the Woodwork
01
Headed Goals
01
Big Chances
32
Corner Kicks
35
Touches in opposition box
3015
Accurate through passes
02
Offsides
70
Free Kicks
1810
Passes
78% (271/348)73% (183/249)
Long passes
44% (27/61)31% (15/49)
Passes in final third
62% (72/117)56% (41/73)
Crosses
30% (7/23)33% (4/12)
Expected assists (xA)
1.101.08
Throw-ins
3016
Fouls
1018
Tackles
67% (8/12)50% (5/10)
Duels won
5652
Clearances
1644
Interceptions
84
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
10
Goalkeeper Saves
15
xGOT faced
1.542.21
Goals prevented
-0.461.21

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 4', Ramirez J. (Pen),
  • 5', Liziero 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 2)
  • 57', Fontan J. 🟨,
  • 62', Lee H. , Gozalbez P. ,
  • 66', 1 - 0, Ramirez J. (Pen),
  • 71', Nandin D. , Barbero I. ,
  • 71', Trezza A. , Mansilla B. ,
  • 74', 1 - 1, Popovic B. , Djouahra N. (A),
  • 78', Pablo Ruan , Witi ,
  • 79', Matheus Dias 🟥,
  • 82', Labidi C. , Ulisses ,
  • 84', Fukui T. , van Ee E. ,
  • 84', Djouahra N. , Puche ,
  • 85', Fontan J. 🟨,
  • 88', Leo Santos , Soares F. ,
  • 89', 1 - 2, van Ee E. , Barbero I. (A),
  • 90+6', Ramirez J. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Nacional
41.1%
Draw
29.1%
Arouca
29.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
36.8% 29% 34.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.7% 29.1% 34.3%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)
  • Arouca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (-4.4%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (+4.5%)
  • Nacional - Arouca Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.33
    (2.6)
    3.26
    (3.3)
    3.18
    (2.8)
    5%
    (4.5%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
    What is the prediction for Nacional - Arouca?
  • Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Nacional will win (votes: 7 - 70%). Arouca will win (votes: 1 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Nacional: 41.6%98.4%.
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 13 and 12).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 1.
    • Nacional is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
    • Arouca has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
    • In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
    • There will not play in Nacional: Baeza M. (Knee Injury) Deivison (Inactive) Fernandes I. (Inactive)
    • There will not play in Arouca: Flores M. (Inactive)
    • There are questionable in Arouca: Sola A. (Inactive)
    • In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 13:19. (average 1:1.5).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Nacional won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:8. (average 1.3:1.3).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Nacional - Arouca were as follows:
    01.02.2025 Nacional - Arouca 1:2
    25.08.2024 Arouca - Nacional 1:0
    Latest results of Nacional
    13.09.2025 Porto - Nacional 1:0
    30.08.2025 Casa Pia - Nacional 0:2
    23.08.2025 Nacional - Sporting Lisbon 1:4
    17.08.2025 Rio Ave - Nacional 1:1
    09.08.2025 Nacional - Gil Vicente 0:2
    Latest results of Arouca
    14.09.2025 Arouca - Casa Pia 0:2
    23.08.2025 Arouca - Rio Ave 3:3
    17.08.2025 Sporting Lisbon - Arouca 6:0
    09.08.2025 Arouca - AVS 3:1
    Liga Portugal Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1FC Porto871019:11822
    2Sporting CP861120:51519
    3Gil Vicente961214:41019
    4Benfica853013:4918
    5Moreirense850312:11115
    6Famalicao83418:4413
    7Vitoria Guimaraes83239:12-311
    8Braga824212:8410
    9Nacional83149:12-310
    10Alverca931511:16-510
    11Arouca823310:19-99
    12Rio Ave815211:13-28
    13Santa Clara82246:10-48
    14Casa Pia82248:13-58
    15Estrela81436:8-27
    16Estoril813410:13-36
    17Tondela81254:14-105
    18AFS80175:20-151

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