Result
0:3
31/01/2026 at 13:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 20
- Referee: Guelho S. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.69 | 1.47 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 51% | 49% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 8 | 18 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 0 | 7 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (380/438) | 88% (355/403) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.69 | 1.47 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.00 | 3.12 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 8 | 18 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 0 | 7 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 2 | 8 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 8 | 11 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 1 | 7 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 23 | 19 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 15 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (380/438) | 88% (355/403) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 37% (11/30) | 53% (23/43) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 66% (49/74) | 70% (51/73) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 11% (1/9) | 29% (6/21) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.33 | 0.49 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 15 | 14 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 15 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 75% (12/16) | 67% (12/18) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 46 | 40 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 23 | 14 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 4 | 0 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 3.12 | 0.00 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 1.12 | 0.00 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 14', van Ee E. 🟨,
- 44', 0 - 1, Tiago Esgaio ⚽, Fontan J. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 2)
- 53', Petrasso F. 🟨,
- 54', 0 - 2, Lomboto J. (Own goal),
- 60', Richards O. ↓, Diogo Bezerra ↑,
- 67', 0 - 3, Lee H. ⚽, Kuipers B. (A),
- 68', Sanchez J. ↓, Popovic B. ↑,
- 73', Papakanellos A. ↓, Nikitscher T. ↑,
- 73', Lomboto J. ↓, Panzo J. ↑,
- 73', Ntoi A. ↓, Spikic D. ↑,
- 76', Lee H. ↓, Mansilla B. ↑,
- 76', Barbero I. ↓, Gozalbez P. ↑,
- 80', Aguilera Zamora B. ↓, Zoabi K. ↑,
- 83', Clayton 🟨,
- 90+2', Tiago Esgaio ↓, Santiago Y. ↑,
- 90+2', van Ee E. ↓, Monteiro D. ↑,
Chances of winning
Rio Ave
31.5% | Draw
29.2% | Arouca
39.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Rio Ave has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-16.5%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Rio Ave's form might have worsened.Arouca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.1%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Arouca's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rio Ave than the current prediction. (+16.3%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Rio Ave, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (-13%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Arouca, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Rio Ave - Arouca Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.02 ↑
(1.97) |
3.23 ↓
(3.67) |
2.41 ↓
(3.6) |
5.4%
(5.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Rio Ave - Arouca?
Users Predictions:
19 users predict this event. Rio Ave will win (votes: 6 - 31.6%). Arouca will win (votes: 2 - 10.5%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 57.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 35.7% – 80.1%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 4 - 100%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- AH +0.25 - Rio Ave (1.86) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- DC - Rio Ave (1.62) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- AH +0.5 - Rio Ave (1.63) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Rio Ave (votes: 7 - 63.6%). Tie (votes: 4 - 36.4%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 12 and 15).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rio Ave won 1.
- Rio Ave has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Arouca's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
- There will not play in Arouca: Nandin D.
(Inactive)
Pedro Santos
(Inactive)
Rocha M.
(Red Card)
- There are questionable in Arouca: Kuipers B.
(Inactive)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Rio Ave won 7 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 22:22. (average 1.1:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Rio Ave won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:7. (average 1.4:0.9).
How many head-to-head matches has Rio Ave won against Arouca?
Rio Ave has won 2 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Arouca won against Rio Ave?
Arouca has won 1 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Rio Ave - Arouca were as follows:
23.08.2025
Arouca
-
Rio Ave
3:3
10.02.2025
Arouca
-
Rio Ave
1:1
01.09.2024
Rio Ave
-
Arouca
1:0
19.04.2024
Rio Ave
-
Arouca
1:1
10.12.2023
Arouca
-
Rio Ave
2:2
Latest results of Rio Ave
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 31 | 26 | 4 | 1 | 63:15 | 48 | 82 |
| 2 | Benfica | 31 | 22 | 9 | 0 | 67:20 | 47 | 75 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 31 | 22 | 7 | 2 | 77:22 | 55 | 73 |
| 4 | Braga | 31 | 16 | 8 | 7 | 59:31 | 28 | 56 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 39:27 | 12 | 51 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 46:32 | 14 | 49 |
| 7 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 38:43 | -5 | 42 |
| 8 | Moreirense | 31 | 11 | 6 | 14 | 34:45 | -11 | 39 |
| 9 | Alverca | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | 34:49 | -15 | 38 |
| 10 | Estoril | 31 | 10 | 7 | 14 | 51:52 | -1 | 37 |
| 11 | Arouca | 31 | 10 | 5 | 16 | 39:60 | -21 | 35 |
| 12 | Rio Ave | 31 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 33:52 | -19 | 34 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 28:38 | -10 | 32 |
| 14 | Nacional | 31 | 8 | 7 | 16 | 34:41 | -7 | 31 |
| 15 | Estrela | 31 | 6 | 10 | 15 | 34:51 | -17 | 28 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 31 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 29:55 | -26 | 26 |
| 17 | Tondela | 31 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 23:52 | -29 | 22 |
| 18 | AFS ✔ | 31 | 1 | 11 | 19 | 22:65 | -43 | 14 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
Clinched Spots for Teams
AFS is Relegated to Liga Portugal 2
