Result
3:0
21/02/2026 at 10:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 23
- Referee: Filipe L. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Portugal | Sport TV4 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.93 | 0.98 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 61% | 39% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (393/450) | 76% (215/284) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Red cards |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.93 | 0.98 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.55 | 0.67 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 8 | 11 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 17 | 21 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 6 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 13 | 13 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (393/450) | 76% (215/284) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 58% (21/36) | 43% (26/60) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 72% (59/82) | 55% (55/100) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 13% (2/15) | 36% (4/11) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.93 | 1.08 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 16 | 15 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 13 | 13 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 40% (2/5) | 29% (2/7) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 40 | 44 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 22 | 17 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 8 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.67 | 2.55 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.67 | -0.45 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 13', Tiago Esgaio 🟨,
- 19', Labidi C. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (3 - 0)
- 46', Baeza M. ↓, Deivison ↑,
- 47', 1 - 0, Trezza A. ⚽, Lee H. (A),
- 51', Labidi C. 🟨,
- 57', Barbero I. 🟨,
- 62', van Ee E. 🟨,
- 64', Ze Vitor 🟨,
- 65', Djouahra N. ↓, Gozalbez P. ↑,
- 65', Barbero I. ↓, Nandin D. ↑,
- 67', 2 - 0, Lee H. ⚽,
- 71', Matheus Dias ↓, Silva J. ↑,
- 71', Ramirez J. ↓, Pablo Ruan ↑,
- 72', 3 - 0, Nandin D. ⚽, Gozalbez P. (A),
- 78', Gabriel Veron ↓, Witi ↑,
- 79', Lee H. 🟨,
- 79', Paulinho Boia ↓, Daniel Junior ↑,
- 83', Lee H. 🟨,
- 85', van Ee E. ↓, Santiago Perez J. ↑,
- 85', Tiago Esgaio ↓, Monteiro D. ↑,
- 89', Trezza A. ↓, Puche ↑,
Chances of winning
Arouca
42% | Draw
28.3% | Nacional
29.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Arouca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (-4.3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (+4.8%)
Arouca - Nacional Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.27 ↓
(2.47) |
3.33 ↓
(3.51) |
3.16 ↑
(2.93) |
5.9%
(3.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Arouca - Nacional?
Users Predictions:
12 users predict this event. Arouca will win (votes: 6 - 50%). Nacional will win (votes: 1 - 8.3%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 41.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Arouca: 21.7% – 78.3%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- DC - Arouca (1.40) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Arouca (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 12 and 14)
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arouca won 3.
- Arouca has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Nacional is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
- There will not play in Arouca: Flores M.
(Inactive)
Pedro Santos
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Nacional: Aurelio J.
(Inactive)
Fernandes I.
(Injury)
Liziero
(Yellow Cards)
Lucas Franca
(Inactive)
Soares F.
(Injury)
Ulisses
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Nacional: Goncalves C.
(Injury)
Paulinho Boia
(Injury)
Vallier L.
(Inactive)
- In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Arouca won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 21:14. (average 1.5:1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Arouca won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:5. (average 1.6:0.7).
How many head-to-head matches has Arouca won against Nacional?
Arouca has won 3 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Nacional won against Arouca?
Nacional has won 0 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Arouca - Nacional were as follows:
20.09.2025
Nacional
-
Arouca
1:2
01.02.2025
Nacional
-
Arouca
1:2
25.08.2024
Arouca
-
Nacional
1:0
Latest results of Nacional
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto ✔ | 32 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 64:15 | 49 | 85 |
| 2 | Benfica | 32 | 22 | 10 | 0 | 69:22 | 47 | 76 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 31 | 22 | 7 | 2 | 77:22 | 55 | 73 |
| 4 | Braga | 32 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 60:32 | 28 | 57 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 41:29 | 12 | 52 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 32 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 46:32 | 14 | 50 |
| 7 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 38:43 | -5 | 42 |
| 8 | Moreirense | 32 | 12 | 6 | 14 | 37:47 | -10 | 42 |
| 9 | Estoril | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 52:53 | -1 | 38 |
| 10 | Alverca | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 34:50 | -16 | 38 |
| 11 | Arouca | 32 | 10 | 6 | 16 | 41:62 | -21 | 36 |
| 12 | Rio Ave | 32 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 33:52 | -19 | 35 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 30:40 | -10 | 33 |
| 14 | Nacional | 32 | 8 | 7 | 17 | 35:43 | -8 | 31 |
| 15 | Estrela | 32 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 36:54 | -18 | 28 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 29:56 | -27 | 26 |
| 17 | Tondela | 32 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 24:52 | -28 | 25 |
| 18 | AFS ✔ | 32 | 2 | 11 | 19 | 24:66 | -42 | 17 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
Clinched Spots for Teams
FC Porto is Confirmed as championsnQualified for Champions League (League phase )
AFS is Relegated to Liga Portugal 2
