Real Madrid vs Arsenal – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football UEFA Champions League
Football UEFA Champions League Real Madrid - Arsenal
Result
1:2
16/04/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Champions League - Play Offs - Quarter-finals
  • Referee: Letexier F. (Fra)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
africaAfricaCANAL+ Sport 2, SuperSport Football Plus, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport Premier League
albaniaAlbaniaTring Sport 1
asiaAsiabeIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA English 1, Q Arena Asia
australiaAustraliaStan Sport
austriaAustriaDAZN 2, Sky Sport Austria 1
azerbaijanAzerbaijanCBC Sport
belgiumBelgiumPickx+ Sports 2, Pickx+ Sports 2, RTL Club, RTL Play, VTM 2
bosnia-and-herzegovinaBosnia-and-herzegovinaArena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1
bulgariaBulgariaBTV Action, Voyo
chileChileESPN Premium
colombiaColombiaDisney+, ESPN
croatiaCroatiaArena Sport 1, HRT 2
cyprusCyprusCytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
czech-republicCzech-republicNova Sport 3
denmarkDenmarkTV3+, Viaplay
finlandFinlandMTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
franceFranceCANAL+ France, Canal+ Live 1, Free
georgiaGeorgiaSetanta Sports 1, Silk Universal
germanyGermanyDAZN 1 Deutsch, DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 2
greeceGreeceCOSMOTE Sport 2, MEGA
hong-kongHong-kongbeIN Sports 3
hungaryHungaryRTL+
icelandIcelandStod 2 Sport 2
indiaIndiaJioTV app, Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 2, Sony Sports TEN 3, Sony Sports TEN 4
indonesiaIndonesiabeIN Sports 1
irelandIrelandRTE 2, RTE Player
israelIsrael5 SPORT Israel
italyItalySKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 4K, Sky Sport Uno, TV8
japanJapanWowow Prime
kazakhstanKazakhstanQazsport
kosovoKosovoART Sport 1
malaysiaMalaysiabeIN Sports 3, Sooka
maltaMaltaGO TV, TSN Malta 7
mexicoMexicoCaliente TV App, Caliente TV
netherlandsNetherlandsZiggo Sport
nigeriaNigeriaSuperSport Football Plus, Supersport Maximo 1
north-central-americaNorth-central-americaESPN Norte, RUSH Sports 1 Caribbean, RUSH Sports 2 Caribbean
north-macedoniaNorth-macedoniaTDM Desporto
norwayNorwayTV2 Sport Premium
papua-new-guineaPapua-new-guineaTVWan Sports
peruPeruDisney+, ESPN
polandPolandCanal+ Extra 1
portugalPortugalSport TV5
romaniaRomaniaDigi Online, Digi Sport 1, Prima Sport 1
russiaRussiaOkko Sport
serbiaSerbiaArena Premium 1, RTS 1, RTS Serbia 1
singaporeSingaporebeIN Sports 3
slovakiaSlovakiaKanal A, Voyo
south-americaSouth-americaESPN South
south-koreaSouth-koreaSPOTV Prime 2
spainSpainDAZN Espana, M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar Plus+
surinameSurinameATV Suriname
swedenSwedenViaplay
switzerlandSwitzerlandBlue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, RTS 2, RTS 2, RTS Sport, RTS Sport, SRF 2, SRF 2, SRF Play, SRF Play
taiwanTaiwanELTA Sports 3
thailandThailandAIS PLAY, beIN Sports 1
turkeyTurkeyTabii
ukraineUkraineMEGOGO Futbol 2
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomDiscovery+ UK, Sport 24 International, TNT Sports 1, TNT Sports Ultimate
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaParamount+, Sport 24 At Sea, TUDN, Univision
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+, ESPN
worldWorldDisney+, VIX App

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.502.05
Ball Possession
66%34%
Total shots
1811
Shots on target
36
Big Chances
13
Corner Kicks
104
Passes
86% (371/431)76% (178/233)
Yellow Cards
32
Expected Goals (xG)
1.502.05
xG on target (xGOT)
1.381.92
Total shots
1811
Shots on target
36
Shots off target
53
Blocked Shots
102
Shots inside the Box
910
Shots outside the Box
91
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
13
Corner Kicks
104
Touches in opposition box
3422
Offsides
21
Free Kicks
1518
Passes
86% (371/431)76% (178/233)
Long passes
36% (13/36)33% (10/30)
Passes in final third
78% (107/137)66% (60/91)
Crosses
16% (7/43)22% (2/9)
Expected assists (xA)
0.710.85
Fouls
1815
Tackles
75% (18/24)46% (6/13)
Duels won
5447
Clearances Total
1237
Interceptions
211
Errors leading to shot
02
Errors leading to goal
01
Goalkeeper Saves
42
xGOT faced
1.921.38
Goals prevented
-0.080.38

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 4', Alaba D. 🟨,
  • 11', Asencio R. 🟨,
  • 13', Saka B. (Pen),
  • 36', Raya D. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 2)
  • 61', Rodrygo ↓, Ceballos D. ↑,
  • 61', Alaba D. ↓, Garcia F. ↑,
  • 61', Lucas ↓, Endrick ↑,
  • 65', 0 - 1, Saka B. ⚽, Merino M. (A),
  • 67', 1 - 1, Vinicius Junior ⚽,
  • 74', Asencio R. ↓, Modric L. ↑,
  • 75', Mbappe K. ↓, Diaz B. ↑,
  • 77', Saka B. ↓, Trossard L. ↑,
  • 85', Rudiger A. 🟨,
  • 85', Partey T. 🟨,
  • 90+3', 1 - 2, Martinelli G. ⚽, Merino M. (A),
  • 90+5', Timber J. ↓, White B. ↑,
  • 90+5', Martinelli G. ↓, Tierney K. ↑,
  • 90+5', Rice D. ↓, Zinchenko O. ↑,

Highlights

http://tinyurl.com/5n8mmtw7

Chances of winning


Real Madrid
54.1%		Draw
23.3%		Arsenal
22.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
42% 28.3% 29.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.8% 29.5% 28.5%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Real Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.1%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Real Madrid's performance.
  • Arsenal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Arsenal might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (-10.3%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Real Madrid that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arsenal than the current prediction. (+5.8%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Arsenal could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
    •

    Real Madrid - Arsenal Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 1.78 ↓
    (2.23)    		 4.15 ↑
    (3.3)    		 4.25 ↑
    (3.15)    		 3.7%
    (6.9%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
    •
    What is the prediction for Real Madrid - Arsenal?
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • O/U 2.75 - over (votes: 4 - 100%).
    • O/U 3 - over (votes: 5 - 83.3%).
    • O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 13 - 92.9%).
    • TQ, OT - Real (votes: 4 - 100%).
  • Users Predictions: Real Madrid will win (136 of 153 users predict this - 88.89%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 83.91% – 93.87%. The data is statistically significant.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Real Madrid will win (30 of 36 users predict this - 83.33%).
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • 2nd leg. 1st leg result: 0-3.
    • Recent matches Real is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
    • Arsenal is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
    • Arsenal could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
    • Recently Arsenal have a series of home games.
    • In this match Real is a favorite.
    • There will not play in Real: Camavinga E. (Red Card) Carvajal D. (Knee Injury) Eder Militao (Knee Injury) Lunin A. (Calf Injury) Mendy F. (Hamstring Injury)
    • There will not play in Arsenal: Calafiori R. (Knee Injury) Gabriel (Hamstring Injury) Gabriel Jesus (Knee Injury) Havertz K. (Hamstring Injury) Jorginho (Chest Injury) Tomiyasu T. (Knee Injury)
    • Last 2 head-to-head matches Real won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3:5 (average 1.5:2.5).
    • Including matches at home between the teams Real won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3:2
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Real Madrid - Arsenal were as follows:
    08.04.2025 Arsenal - Real Madrid 3:0
    Latest results of Real Madrid
    13.04.2025 Deportivo Alavés - Real Madrid 0:1 ✺
    08.04.2025 Arsenal - Real Madrid 3:0 ✺
    05.04.2025 Real Madrid - Valencia 1:2 ✺
    01.04.2025 Real Madrid - Real Sociedad 4:4 ✺
    29.03.2025 Real Madrid - Leganés 3:2 ✺
    Latest results of Arsenal
    12.04.2025 Arsenal - Brentford 1:1 ✺
    08.04.2025 Arsenal - Real Madrid 3:0 ✺
    05.04.2025 Everton - Arsenal 1:1 ✺
    01.04.2025 Arsenal - Fulham 2:1 ✺
    16.03.2025 Arsenal - Chelsea 1:0 ✺
    Draw
    2025/26

    1/8-finals
    1RijekaBye
    2LudogoretsDin. Minsk2 : 2, 1 : 0
    3NoahBuducnost2 : 2, 1 : 0
    4ByeFerencvaros
    5TNSShkendija1 : 2, 0 : 0
    6FCSBInter Escaldes1 : 2, 3 : 1
    7ShelbourneLinfield1 : 1, 1 : 0
    8ByeQarabag
    9Lech PoznanBye
    10EgnatiaBreidablik0 : 5, 1 : 0
    11VikingurLincoln Red Imps0 : 1, 2 : 3
    12ByeCrvena zvezda
    13ZalgirisHamrun0 : 3, 2 : 0
    14ByeDyn. Kyiv
    15PafosBye
    16ByeMaccabi Tel Aviv
    17Bodo/GlimtBye
    24ByeSturm Graz
    25CelticBye
    29KuPSMilsami0 : 0, 1 : 0
    30O. LjubljanaKairat Almaty0 : 2, 1 : 1
    31Slovan BratislavaBye
    32VirtusZrinjski1 : 2, 0 : 2
    33BaselBye
    37LevadiaRFS0 : 1, 0 : 1
    38Iberia 1999Malmo FF1 : 3, 1 : 3
    39FC CopenhagenBye
    40DritaDifferdange3 : 2, 1 : 0
    41FeyenoordBye
    44ByeFenerbahce
    45NiceBye
    48ByeBenfica
    49RangersBye
    50ByePanathinaikos
    51PlzenBye
    52ByeServette
    53BrannBye
    54ByeSalzburg
    56ByeClub Brugge KV

    Quarter-finals
    1RijekaLudogorets1 : 3, 0 : 0
    2NoahFerencvaros3 : 4, 1 : 2
    3ShkendijaFCSB2 : 1, 1 : 0
    4ShelbourneQarabag0 : 1, 0 : 3
    5Lech PoznanBreidablik1 : 0, 7 : 1
    6Lincoln Red ImpsCrvena zvezda1 : 5, 0 : 1
    7HamrunDyn. Kyiv0 : 3, 0 : 3
    8PafosMaccabi Tel Aviv1 : 0, 1 : 1
    9Bodo/GlimtBye
    12ByeSturm Graz
    13CelticBye
    15KuPSKairat Almaty0 : 3, 2 : 0
    16Slovan BratislavaZrinjski2 : 2, 4 : 0
    17BaselBye
    19RFSMalmo FF0 : 1, 1 : 4
    20FC CopenhagenDrita1 : 0, 2 : 0
    21FeyenoordBye
    22ByeFenerbahce
    23NiceBye
    24ByeBenfica
    25RangersPanathinaikos1 : 1, 2 : 0
    26PlzenServette3 : 1, 0 : 1
    27BrannSalzburg1 : 1, 1 : 4
    28ByeClub Brugge KV

    Semi-finals
    1LudogoretsFerencvaros0 : 3, 0 : 0
    2ShkendijaQarabag1 : 5, 0 : 1
    3Lech PoznanCrvena zvezda1 : 1, 1 : 3
    4Dyn. KyivPafos0 : 2, 0 : 1
    5Bodo/GlimtBye
    6ByeSturm Graz
    7CelticBye
    8Kairat AlmatySlovan Bratislava1 : 1, 1 : 0
    9BaselBye
    10Malmo FFFC Copenhagen0 : 5, 0 : 0
    11FeyenoordFenerbahce2 : 5, 2 : 1
    12NiceBenfica0 : 2, 0 : 2
    13RangersPlzen1 : 2, 3 : 0
    14SalzburgClub Brugge KV2 : 3, 0 : 1

    Final
    1FerencvarosQarabag1 : 3
    2Crvena zvezdaPafos1 : 2
    3Bodo/GlimtSturm Graz5 : 0
    4CelticKairat Almaty0 : 0
    5BaselFC Copenhagen1 : 1
    6FenerbahceBenfica0 : 0
    7RangersClub Brugge KV1 : 3
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