Real Madrid vs Arsenal – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

16/04/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Estadio Santiago Bernabéu (Madrid).

Champions League - Play Offs - Quarter-finals
Referee: Letexier F. (Fra)
Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2, SuperSport Football Plus, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport Premier League
Albania	Tring Sport 1
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA English 1, Q Arena Asia
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	DAZN 2, Sky Sport Austria 1
Azerbaijan	CBC Sport
Belgium	Pickx+ Sports 2, Pickx+ Sports 2, RTL Club, RTL Play, VTM 2
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1
Bulgaria	BTV Action, Voyo
Chile	ESPN Premium
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, HRT 2
Cyprus	Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3
Denmark	TV3+, Viaplay
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
France	CANAL+ France, Canal+ Live 1, Free
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1, Silk Universal
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch, DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 2
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 2, MEGA
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 3
Hungary	RTL+
Iceland	Stod 2 Sport 2
India	JioTV app, Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 2, Sony Sports TEN 3, Sony Sports TEN 4
Indonesia	beIN Sports 1
Ireland	RTE 2, RTE Player
Israel	5 SPORT Israel
Italy	SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 4K, Sky Sport Uno, TV8
Japan	Wowow Prime
Kazakhstan	Qazsport
Kosovo	ART Sport 1
Malaysia	beIN Sports 3, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 7
Mexico	Caliente TV App, Caliente TV
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport
Nigeria	SuperSport Football Plus, Supersport Maximo 1
North-central-america	ESPN Norte, RUSH Sports 1 Caribbean, RUSH Sports 2 Caribbean
North-macedonia	TDM Desporto
Norway	TV2 Sport Premium
Papua-new-guinea	TVWan Sports
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Poland	Canal+ Extra 1
Portugal	Sport TV5
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 1, Prima Sport 1
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 1, RTS 1, RTS Serbia 1
Singapore	beIN Sports 3
Slovakia	Kanal A, Voyo
South-america	ESPN South
South-korea	SPOTV Prime 2
Spain	DAZN Espana, M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar Plus+
Suriname	ATV Suriname
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, RTS 2, RTS 2, RTS Sport, RTS Sport, SRF 2, SRF 2, SRF Play, SRF Play
Taiwan	ELTA Sports 3
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	Tabii
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2
United-kingdom	Discovery+ UK, Sport 24 International, TNT Sports 1, TNT Sports Ultimate
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+, Sport 24 At Sea, TUDN, Univision
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN
World	Disney+, VIX App

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.50	2.05
Ball Possession
66%	34%
Total shots
18	11
Shots on target
3	6
Big Chances
1	3
Corner Kicks
10	4
Passes
86% (371/431)	76% (178/233)
Yellow Cards
3	2
Expected Goals (xG)
1.50	2.05
xG on target (xGOT)
1.38	1.92
Total shots
18	11
Shots on target
3	6
Shots off target
5	3
Blocked Shots
10	2
Shots inside the Box
9	10
Shots outside the Box
9	1
Hit the Woodwork
0	0
Big Chances
1	3
Corner Kicks
10	4
Touches in opposition box
34	22
Offsides
2	1
Free Kicks
15	18
Passes
86% (371/431)	76% (178/233)
Long passes
36% (13/36)	33% (10/30)
Passes in final third
78% (107/137)	66% (60/91)
Crosses
16% (7/43)	22% (2/9)
Expected assists (xA)
0.71	0.85
Fouls
18	15
Tackles
75% (18/24)	46% (6/13)
Duels won
54	47
Clearances Total
12	37
Interceptions
2	11
Errors leading to shot
0	2
Errors leading to goal
0	1
Goalkeeper Saves
4	2
xGOT faced
1.92	1.38
Goals prevented
-0.08	0.38

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 0)
4', Alaba D. 🟨,
11', Asencio R. 🟨,
13', Saka B. (Pen),
36', Raya D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
61', Rodrygo ↓, Ceballos D. ↑,
61', Alaba D. ↓, Garcia F. ↑,
61', Lucas ↓, Endrick ↑,
65', 0 - 1, Saka B. ⚽, Merino M. (A),
67', 1 - 1, Vinicius Junior ⚽,
74', Asencio R. ↓, Modric L. ↑,
75', Mbappe K. ↓, Diaz B. ↑,
77', Saka B. ↓, Trossard L. ↑,
85', Rudiger A. 🟨,
85', Partey T. 🟨,
90+3', 1 - 2, Martinelli G. ⚽, Merino M. (A),
90+5', Timber J. ↓, White B. ↑,
90+5', Martinelli G. ↓, Tierney K. ↑,
90+5', Rice D. ↓, Zinchenko O. ↑,

Highlights

http://tinyurl.com/5n8mmtw7

Chances of winning

Real Madrid
54.1%

Draw
23.3%

Arsenal
22.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42%

28.3%

29.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.8%

29.5%

28.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Real Madrid's performance.

Arsenal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Arsenal might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (-10.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Real Madrid that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arsenal than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Arsenal could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Real Madrid - Arsenal Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.78 ↓ (2.23)	4.15 ↑ (3.3)	4.25 ↑ (3.15)	3.7% (6.9%)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

What is the prediction for Real Madrid - Arsenal?

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

O/U 2.75 - over (votes: 4 - 100%).

O/U 3 - over (votes: 5 - 83.3%).

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 13 - 92.9%).

TQ, OT - Real (votes: 4 - 100%).

O/U 0.75, 1st Half - over (votes: 4 - 100%).

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 4 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Real Madrid will win (136 of 153 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 83.91% – 93.87%. The data is statistically significant.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Real Madrid will win (30 of 36 users predict this - 83.33%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.

Preview Facts

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 0-3.
Recent matches Real is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
Arsenal is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
Arsenal could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
Recently Arsenal have a series of home games.
In this match Real is a favorite.
There will not play in Real: Camavinga E. (Red Card) Carvajal D. (Knee Injury) Eder Militao (Knee Injury) Lunin A. (Calf Injury) Mendy F. (Hamstring Injury)
There will not play in Arsenal: Calafiori R. (Knee Injury) Gabriel (Hamstring Injury) Gabriel Jesus (Knee Injury) Havertz K. (Hamstring Injury) Jorginho (Chest Injury) Tomiyasu T. (Knee Injury)
Last 2 head-to-head matches Real won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3:5 (average 1.5:2.5).
Including matches at home between the teams Real won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3:2

How many head-to-head matches has Real Madrid won against Arsenal?

Real Madrid has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Arsenal won against Real Madrid?

Arsenal has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Real Madrid - Arsenal were as follows:

08.04.2025 Arsenal - Real Madrid 3:0

Latest results of Real Madrid

13.04.2025 Deportivo Alavés - Real Madrid 0:1 ✺

08.04.2025 Arsenal - Real Madrid 3:0 ✺

05.04.2025 Real Madrid - Valencia 1:2 ✺

01.04.2025 Real Madrid - Real Sociedad 4:4 ✺

29.03.2025 Real Madrid - Leganés 3:2 ✺

Latest results of Arsenal

12.04.2025 Arsenal - Brentford 1:1 ✺

08.04.2025 Arsenal - Real Madrid 3:0 ✺

05.04.2025 Everton - Arsenal 1:1 ✺

01.04.2025 Arsenal - Fulham 2:1 ✺

16.03.2025 Arsenal - Chelsea 1:0 ✺

UEFA Champions League Table

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Bayern Munich	2	2	0	0	8:2	6	6
2	Real Madrid	2	2	0	0	7:1	6	6
3	PSG	2	2	0	0	6:1	5	6
4	Inter	2	2	0	0	5:0	5	6
5	Arsenal	2	2	0	0	4:0	4	6
6	Qarabag	2	2	0	0	5:2	3	6
7	Dortmund	2	1	1	0	8:5	3	4
8	Manchester City	2	1	1	0	4:2	2	4
9	Tottenham	2	1	1	0	3:2	1	4
10	Atl. Madrid	2	1	0	1	7:4	3	3
11	Newcastle	2	1	0	1	5:2	3	3
12	Marseille	2	1	0	1	5:2	3	3
13	Club Brugge KV	2	1	0	1	5:3	2	3
14	Sporting CP	2	1	0	1	5:3	2	3
15	Eintracht Frankfurt	2	1	0	1	6:6	0	3
16	Barcelona	2	1	0	1	3:3	0	3
17	Liverpool	2	1	0	1	3:3	0	3
18	Chelsea	2	1	0	1	2:3	-1	3
19	Napoli	2	1	0	1	2:3	-1	3
20	Royale Union SG	2	1	0	1	3:5	-2	3
21	Galatasaray	2	1	0	1	2:5	-3	3
22	Atalanta	2	1	0	1	2:5	-3	3
23	Juventus	2	0	2	0	6:6	0	2
24	Bodo/Glimt	2	0	2	0	4:4	0	2
25	Bayer Leverkusen	2	0	2	0	3:3	0	2
26	Villarreal	2	0	1	1	2:3	-1	1
27	PSV	2	0	1	1	2:4	-2	1
28	FC Copenhagen	2	0	1	1	2:4	-2	1
29	Olympiacos Piraeus	2	0	1	1	0:2	-2	1
30	Monaco	2	0	1	1	3:6	-3	1
31	Slavia Prague	2	0	1	1	2:5	-3	1
32	Pafos	2	0	1	1	1:5	-4	1
33	Benfica	2	0	0	2	2:4	-2	0
34	Ath Bilbao	2	0	0	2	1:6	-5	0
35	Ajax	2	0	0	2	0:6	-6	0
36	Kairat Almaty	2	0	0	2	1:9	-8	0

Promotion ~ Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
Promotion ~ Champions League (Play Offs: 1/16~finals)