Tobol Kostanay vs Astana – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Kazakh Premier League Tobol Kostanay - Astana
Result
2:3
19/09/2025 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Premier League - Round 20

Match Stats

Ball Possession
31%69%
Total shots
829
Shots on target
514
Corner Kicks
28
Yellow Cards
21
Red Cards
10
Total shots
829
Shots on target
514
Shots off target
19
Blocked Shots
26
Corner Kicks
28
Offsides
15
Free Kicks
00
Fouls
613

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (2 - 2)
  • 2', 1 - 0, Chesnokov I. ,
  • 6', 1 - 1, Tomasov M. ,
  • 11', Marochkin A. 🟨,
  • 34', 2 - 1, El Messaoudi A. (Pen),
  • 37', Tagybergen A. 🟥,
  • 45+3', 2 - 2, Geoffrey C. , Gripshi N. (A),
  • 2nd Half (0 - 1)
  • 46', Bystrov M. , Camara O. ,
  • 66', El Messaoudi A. , Zuev A. ,
  • 74', Geoffrey C. , Karimov R. ,
  • 79', Zhagorov N. , Signevich N. ,
  • 89', Chesnokov I. , Umarov S. ,
  • 90+1', 2 - 3, Tomasov M. , Shomko D. (A),
  • 90+3', Ebong M. , Beysebekov A. ,
  • 90+6', Karimov R. , Basmanov S. ,
  • 90+7', Zuev A. 🟨,
  • 90+7', 🟨,

Highlights

Official Live

Chances of winning


Tobol Kostanay
34.9%
Draw
27.5%
Astana
37.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
35.4% 29.3% 35.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.1% 29.9% 34.7%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Tobol Kostanay has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)
  • Astana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tobol Kostanay than the current prediction. (+1.2%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Astana than the current prediction. (-2.9%)
  • Tobol Kostanay - Astana Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.66
    (2.66)
    3.37
    (3.21)
    2.47
    (2.66)
    7.7%
    (6.3%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
    What is the prediction for Tobol Kostanay - Astana?
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Astana (votes: 1 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tobol won 3.
    • Tobol is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • In recent matches, Astana has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
    • Tobol may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Tobol won 7 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 20:19. (average 1:1).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Tobol won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:8. (average 0.8:0.7).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Tobol Kostanay - Astana were as follows:
    10.05.2025 Astana - Tobol Kostanay 1:3
    03.11.2024 Tobol Kostanay - Astana 1:0
    08.05.2024 Tobol Kostanay - Astana 1:0
    21.04.2024 Astana - Tobol Kostanay 2:2
    16.09.2023 Astana - Tobol Kostanay 2:1
    Latest results of Tobol Kostanay
    Latest results of Astana
    14.09.2025 Astana - Yelimay Semey 3:3
    28.08.2025 Astana - Kaisar 5:1
    23.08.2025 Zhenis - Astana 3:2
    17.08.2025 Astana - Ulytau 4:0
    14.08.2025 Astana - Lausanne-Sport 0:2
    Kazakh Premier League Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Kairat Almaty26185353:193459
    2FC Astana26176366:303657
    3Tobol ✔ 26166445:252054
    4Yelimay Semey26146647:311648
    5Aktobe26134939:291043
    6Zhenis26812637:30736
    7Ordabasy2698937:28935
    8Okzhetpes261051137:43-635
    9Kyzylzhar26691125:32-727
    10Ulytau26581320:41-2123
    11Kaisar Kyzylorda263131024:42-1822
    12Zhetysu Taldykorgan26491319:43-2421
    13Atyrau26471522:45-2319
    14Turan26441825:58-3316

          Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Relegation ~ First League

    Clinched Spots for Teams
    Tobol is Qualified for Conference League (Qualification )