Chapecoense vs Athletico Paranaense – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

16/09/2025 at 20:35 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Arena Condá (Chapecó).

Serie B Superbet - Round 26
Referee: do Nascimento W. (Bra)
Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.42	2.29
Ball Possession
58%	42%
Total shots
13	11
Shots on target
5	6
Big Chances
1	3
Corner Kicks
5	2
Passes
83% (359/432)	77% (244/316)
Yellow Cards
3	2
Expected Goals (xG)
1.42	2.29
xG on target (xGOT)
2.43	2.45
Total shots
13	11
Shots on target
5	6
Shots off target
4	5
Blocked Shots
4	0
Shots inside the Box
7	5
Shots outside the Box
6	6
Hit the Woodwork
1	1
Big Chances
1	3
Corner Kicks
5	2
Touches in opposition box
22	11
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
2	3
Free Kicks
12	15
Passes
83% (359/432)	77% (244/316)
Long passes
54% (34/63)	27% (16/59)
Passes in final third
65% (71/110)	69% (58/84)
Crosses
25% (5/20)	10% (1/10)
Expected assists (xA)
0.90	0.29
Throw-ins
16	11
Fouls
15	12
Tackles
71% (5/7)	50% (5/10)
Duels won
37	33
Clearances
20	28
Interceptions
5	8
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
1	1
Goalkeeper Saves
3	3
xGOT faced
2.45	2.43
Goals prevented
-0.55	0.43

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 1)
33', Viveros K. 🟨,
37', Bruno Matias ↓, Pedro Martins ↑,
38', Leo Vieira 🟨,
42', 0 - 1, Viveros K. (Pen),
44', Patrick 🟨,
45+1', Joao Paulo 🟨,
45+8', Eduardo Doma 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
46', Neto Pessoa ↓, Pedro Perotti ↑,
46', Everton ↓, Italo ↑,
48', 1 - 1, Eduardo Doma ⚽, Rafael Carvalheira (A),
53', 2 - 1, Pedro Perotti ⚽, Italo (A),
57', 2 - 2, Leo Derik ⚽, Zapelli B. (A),
62', Dudu Kogitzki ↓, Luiz Fernando ↑,
62', Mendoza S. ↓, Julimar ↑,
72', 2 - 3, Viveros K. ⚽, Esquivel L. (A),
75', Bressan ↓, Bruno Leonardo ↑,
79', Viveros K. ↓, Leozinho ↑,
87', Leo Derik ↓, Leo ↑,
88', Zapelli B. ↓, Raul ↑,
90', Joao Paulo ↓, Mailson ↑,

Chances of winning

Chapecoense
33.8%

Draw
29.7%

Athletico Paranaense
36.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.3%

30.9%

30.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.4%

31%

30.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chapecoense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

Athletico Paranaense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Athletico Paranaense's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chapecoense than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Athletico Paranaense, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Chapecoense - Athletico Paranaense Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.76 ↑ (2.41)	3.11 ↑ (2.99)	2.56 ↓ (3)	7.4% (8.3%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

What is the prediction for Chapecoense - Athletico Paranaense?

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Chapecoense will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Athletico PR will win (votes: 3 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Chapecoense (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A Betano and 9).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chapecoense won 0.
Chapecoense is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
Athletico PR has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Chapecoense won 2 matches, drew 12 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 16:19. (average 0.9:1.1).
Including home matches between the teams, Chapecoense won 2 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:5. (average 1.1:0.6).

How many head-to-head matches has Chapecoense won against Athletico Paranaense?

Chapecoense has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Athletico Paranaense won against Chapecoense?

Athletico Paranaense has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Chapecoense - Athletico Paranaense were as follows:

08.05.2025 Athletico Paranaense - Chapecoense 1:1

Latest results of Chapecoense

10.09.2025 Concórdia - Chapecoense 0:1 ✺

07.09.2025 Criciúma - Chapecoense 2:0 ✺

01.09.2025 Chapecoense - Vila Nova 2:2 ✺

22.08.2025 Athletic Club - Chapecoense 0:4 ✺

17.08.2025 Chapecoense - Paysandu 2:0 ✺

Latest results of Athletico Paranaense

10.09.2025 Corinthians - Athletico Paranaense 2:0 ✺

06.09.2025 Botafogo SP - Athletico Paranaense 1:3 ✺

30.08.2025 Athletico Paranaense - Grêmio Novorizontino 2:1 ✺

27.08.2025 Athletico Paranaense - Corinthians 0:1 ✺

23.08.2025 CRB Maceio - Athletico Paranaense 0:1 ✺

Brazilian Serie B Table

2025

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Goias	27	14	6	7	33:25	8	48
2	Coritiba	27	13	8	6	28:17	11	47
3	Criciuma	27	13	7	7	34:21	13	46
4	Novorizontino	27	11	10	6	30:25	5	43
5	Athletico-PR	27	12	6	9	39:36	3	42
6	Chapecoense-SC	27	12	5	10	38:28	10	41
7	Cuiaba	27	11	8	8	32:30	2	41
8	Remo	27	9	12	6	28:24	4	39
9	Atletico GO	27	9	11	7	30:28	2	38
10	CRB	27	11	4	12	28:24	4	37
11	Avai	27	9	10	8	35:30	5	37
12	Vila Nova FC	27	10	6	11	26:28	-2	36
13	Operario-PR	27	9	9	9	29:26	3	36
14	Athletic Club	27	9	5	13	29:35	-6	32
15	Ferroviaria	27	7	11	9	30:34	-4	32
16	America MG	27	8	6	13	27:33	-6	30
17	Botafogo SP	27	7	8	12	22:39	-17	29
18	Amazonas	27	6	9	12	27:39	-12	27
19	Volta Redonda	27	6	9	12	16:28	-12	27
20	Paysandu PA	27	4	10	13	21:32	-11	22

Promotion ~ Serie A Betano
Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )