Athletico Paranaense vs Ferroviária – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Brazilian Serie B Athletico Paranaense - Ferroviária
Result
1:1
22/07/2025 at 19:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Serie B Superbet - Round 18
  • Referee: Furtado A. (Bra)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
brazilBrazilDisney+

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
2.081.52
Ball Possession
59%41%
Total shots
277
Shots on target
82
Big Chances
42
Corner Kicks
111
Passes
86% (405/473)80% (278/347)
Yellow Cards
14
Expected Goals (xG)
2.081.52
xG on target (xGOT)
2.591.04
Total shots
277
Shots on target
82
Shots off target
123
Blocked Shots
72
Shots inside the Box
205
Shots outside the Box
72
Hit the Woodwork
10
Big Chances
42
Corner Kicks
111
Touches in opposition box
3713
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
13
Free Kicks
1413
Passes
86% (405/473)80% (278/347)
Long passes
61% (25/41)48% (23/48)
Passes in final third
68% (90/133)60% (35/58)
Crosses
37% (10/27)25% (2/8)
Expected assists (xA)
0.920.70
Throw-ins
1419
Fouls
1314
Tackles
68% (13/19)33% (3/9)
Duels won
6140
Clearances
1724
Interceptions
812
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
17
xGOT faced
1.042.59
Goals prevented
0.041.59

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 45+1', Moraes K. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 58', Alan Kardec , Viveros K. ,
  • 58', Patrick , Dudu Kogitzki ,
  • 63', 1 - 0, Mendoza S. , Zapelli B. (A),
  • 65', Thayllon , Juninho ,
  • 65', Netinho , Ian Luccas ,
  • 74', Alencar , Thiago Lopes ,
  • 82', 1 - 1, Juninho (Pen),
  • 83', Raul , Felipinho ,
  • 83', Giuliano , Joao Cruz ,
  • 84', Tarik 🟨,
  • 88', Aguirre Tabares J. F. , Leozinho ,
  • 88', Tarik , Joao Ramos ,
  • 90+5', Ronaldo Alves 🟨,
  • 90+5', Joao Ramos 🟨,
  • 90+9', Lucas Rodrigues 🟨,

Chances of winning


Athletico Paranaense
61.2%
Draw
25.4%
Ferroviária
13.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
66.8% 21.7% 11.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.6% 20.5% 10.9%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Athletico Paranaense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Athletico Paranaense's form might have worsened.
  • Ferroviária has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (+9.4%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Athletico Paranaense, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ferroviária than the current prediction. (-2.5%)
  • Athletico Paranaense - Ferroviária Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.54
    (1.38)
    3.7
    (4.25)
    6.97
    (8)
    6.1%
    (8.5%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
  • What is the prediction for Athletico Paranaense - Ferroviária?
  • Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Athletico PR will win (votes: 10 - 83.3%). Ferroviária will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Athletico PR: 62.2%100%.
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • AH -1 - Athletico PR (votes: 3 - 100%).
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Athletico Paranaense will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 9 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )).
    • In recent matches, Athletico PR has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
    • Ferroviária's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
    • Ferroviária may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • In this match, Athletico PR is the undisputed favorite.
    • There will not play in Athletico PR: Esquivel L. (Red Card) Isaac (Inactive) Julimar (Knee Injury) Luiz Fernando (Injury) Madson (Inactive)
    • There will not play in Ferroviária: Carlao (Red Card) Denilson (Inactive) Eric Melo (Inactive) Gustavo Jundi (Inactive) Ricardinho (Red Card) Wesley Pomba (Red Card) Ze Mario (Red Card)
    • There are questionable in Athletico PR: Dudu Marques (Inactive) Palacios H. (Inactive)
    • There are questionable in Ferroviária: Cassio Gabriel (Inactive) Maycon (Injury) Vitor Barreto (Inactive)
    • Recently, the teams have not faced each other.
    Latest results of Athletico Paranaense
    Latest results of Ferroviária
    13.07.2025 Criciúma - Ferroviária 2:1
    06.07.2025 Ferroviária - Vila Nova 1:3
    30.06.2025 Paysandu - Ferroviária 2:1
    21.06.2025 Ferroviária - CRB Maceio 1:0
    Brazilian Serie B Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Goias24135631:23844
    2Coritiba24127524:16843
    3Chapecoense-SC24125736:221441
    4Criciuma24116731:211039
    5Novorizontino2499626:23336
    6Remo24811524:21335
    7CRB241041026:22434
    8Vila Nova FC241041024:24034
    9Cuiaba2497829:29034
    10Operario-PR2496926:23333
    11Athletico-PR2496931:33-233
    12Avai2389630:23733
    13Ferroviaria24710727:26131
    14Atletico GO24710726:26031
    15Athletic Club24841226:33-728
    16Botafogo SP24771020:33-1328
    17Amazonas24591025:34-924
    18Volta Redonda24581114:26-1223
    19America MG23641323:32-922
    20Paysandu PA24491120:29-921

          Promotion ~ Serie A Betano
          Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )