Result
1:1
22/07/2025 at 19:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie B Superbet - Round 18
- Referee: Furtado A. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
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 Brazil | Disney+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.08 | 1.52 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 59% | 41% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 27 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 1 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (405/473) | 80% (278/347) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.08 | 1.52 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.59 | 1.04 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 27 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 12 | 3 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 20 | 5 |
| Shots outside the Box |
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| 7 | 2 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
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| 11 | 1 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 37 | 13 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Free Kicks |
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| 14 | 13 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (405/473) | 80% (278/347) |
| Long passes |
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| 61% (25/41) | 48% (23/48) |
| Passes in final third |
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| 68% (90/133) | 60% (35/58) |
| Crosses |
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| 37% (10/27) | 25% (2/8) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.92 | 0.70 |
| Throw-ins |
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| 14 | 19 |
| Fouls |
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| 13 | 14 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 68% (13/19) | 33% (3/9) |
| Duels won |
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| 61 | 40 |
| Clearances |
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| 17 | 24 |
| Interceptions |
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| 8 | 12 |
| Errors leading to shot |
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| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
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| 1 | 7 |
| xGOT faced |
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| 1.04 | 2.59 |
| Goals prevented |
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| 0.04 | 1.59 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 45+1', Moraes K. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 58', Alan Kardec ↓, Viveros K. ↑,
- 58', Patrick ↓, Dudu Kogitzki ↑,
- 63', 1 - 0, Mendoza S. ⚽, Zapelli B. (A),
- 65', Thayllon ↓, Juninho ↑,
- 65', Netinho ↓, Ian Luccas ↑,
- 74', Alencar ↓, Thiago Lopes ↑,
- 82', 1 - 1, Juninho (Pen),
- 83', Raul ↓, Felipinho ↑,
- 83', Giuliano ↓, Joao Cruz ↑,
- 84', Tarik 🟨,
- 88', Aguirre Tabares J. F. ↓, Leozinho ↑,
- 88', Tarik ↓, Joao Ramos ↑,
- 90+5', Ronaldo Alves 🟨,
- 90+5', Joao Ramos 🟨,
- 90+9', Lucas Rodrigues 🟨,
Chances of winning
Athletico Paranaense
61.2% | Draw
25.4% | Ferroviária
13.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Athletico Paranaense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Athletico Paranaense's form might have worsened.Ferroviária has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (+9.4%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Athletico Paranaense, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ferroviária than the current prediction. (-2.5%)
Athletico Paranaense - Ferroviária Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.54 ↑
(1.38) |
3.7 ↓
(4.25) |
6.97 ↓
(8) |
6.1%
(8.5%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Athletico Paranaense - Ferroviária?
Users Predictions:
12 users predict this event. Athletico PR will win (votes: 10 - 83.3%). Ferroviária will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Athletico PR: 62.2% – 100%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH -1 - Athletico PR (votes: 3 - 100%).
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Athletico Paranaense will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 9 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )).
- In recent matches, Athletico PR has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Ferroviária's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Ferroviária may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Athletico PR is the undisputed favorite.
- There will not play in Athletico PR: Esquivel L.
(Red Card)
Isaac
(Inactive)
Julimar
(Knee Injury)
Luiz Fernando
(Injury)
Madson
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Ferroviária: Carlao
(Red Card)
Denilson
(Inactive)
Eric Melo
(Inactive)
Gustavo Jundi
(Inactive)
Ricardinho
(Red Card)
Wesley Pomba
(Red Card)
Ze Mario
(Red Card)
- There are questionable in Athletico PR: Dudu Marques
(Inactive)
Palacios H.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Ferroviária: Cassio Gabriel
(Inactive)
Maycon
(Injury)
Vitor Barreto
(Inactive)
- Recently, the teams have not faced each other.
How many head-to-head matches has Athletico Paranaense won against Ferroviária?
Athletico Paranaense has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Ferroviária won against Athletico Paranaense?
Ferroviária has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Athletico Paranaense - Ferroviária were as follows:
Latest results of Athletico Paranaense
Latest results of Ferroviária
Brazilian Serie B Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Goias | 27 | 14 | 6 | 7 | 33:25 | 8 | 48 |
| 2 | Coritiba | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 28:17 | 11 | 47 |
| 3 | Criciuma | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 34:21 | 13 | 46 |
| 4 | Novorizontino | 27 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 30:25 | 5 | 43 |
| 5 | Athletico-PR | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 39:36 | 3 | 42 |
| 6 | Chapecoense-SC | 27 | 12 | 5 | 10 | 38:28 | 10 | 41 |
| 7 | Cuiaba | 27 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 32:30 | 2 | 41 |
| 8 | Remo | 27 | 9 | 12 | 6 | 28:24 | 4 | 39 |
| 9 | Atletico GO | 27 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 30:28 | 2 | 38 |
| 10 | CRB | 27 | 11 | 4 | 12 | 28:24 | 4 | 37 |
| 11 | Avai | 27 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 35:30 | 5 | 37 |
| 12 | Vila Nova FC | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 26:28 | -2 | 36 |
| 13 | Operario-PR | 27 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 29:26 | 3 | 36 |
| 14 | Athletic Club | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 29:35 | -6 | 32 |
| 15 | Ferroviaria | 27 | 7 | 11 | 9 | 30:34 | -4 | 32 |
| 16 | America MG | 27 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 27:33 | -6 | 30 |
| 17 | Botafogo SP | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 22:39 | -17 | 29 |
| 18 | Amazonas | 27 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 27:39 | -12 | 27 |
| 19 | Volta Redonda | 27 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 16:28 | -12 | 27 |
| 20 | Paysandu PA | 27 | 4 | 10 | 13 | 21:32 | -11 | 22 |
Promotion ~ Serie A Betano
Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )
