Result
2:2
20/10/2025 at 18:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie B Superbet - Round 33
- Referee: Pinheiro J. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.78 | 0.58 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 54% | 46% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 20 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 10 | 3 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (300/380) | 74% (256/344) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.78 | 0.58 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 3.00 | 0.75 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 20 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 10 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 9 | 5 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 11 | 2 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 25 | 13 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 18 | 13 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (300/380) | 74% (256/344) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 57% (27/47) | 38% (24/63) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 66% (86/131) | 49% (38/78) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 24% (8/34) | 22% (2/9) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.53 | 0.78 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 36 | 24 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 13 | 18 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 54% (7/13) | 75% (9/12) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 46 | 41 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 21 | 31 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 13 | 17 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 7 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.75 | 3.00 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -1.25 | 1.00 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 2)
- 2', 1 - 0, Carlao ⚽, Fabricio Daniel (A),
- 15', 1 - 1, Thiago Heleno ⚽, Reverson (A),
- 25', Ricardinho 🟨,
- 31', 1 - 2, Wendel ⚽, Mauricio Garcez (A),
- 36', Vitor Barreto 🟨,
- 45+6', Thalisson 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Petterson Novaes ↓, Gustavo Nicola ↑,
- 60', Vitor Barreto ↓, Albano ↑,
- 66', 2 - 2, Albano ⚽, Juninho (A),
- 68', Fabricio Daniel ↓, Thiago Lopes ↑,
- 72', Ronaldo Henrique ↓, Marcelinho ↑,
- 79', Juninho ↓, Fabio ↑,
- 79', Ricardinho ↓, Tarik ↑,
- 79', Wendel ↓, Vinicius Faria ↑,
- 79', Ze Mario ↓, Eric Melo ↑,
- 79', Thiago Heleno ↓, Lucca Carvalho ↑,
- 89', Denner ↓, Joao Marcos ↑,
Chances of winning
Ferroviária
49.5% | Draw
28.4% | Paysandu
22.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Ferroviária has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)Paysandu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ferroviária than the current prediction. (-8.5%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ferroviária that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paysandu than the current prediction. (+5.1%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Paysandu could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Ferroviária - Paysandu Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.96 ↓
(2) |
3.45 ↑
(3.05) |
4.57 ↑
(3.75) |
1.9%
(9.5%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Ferroviária - Paysandu?
Users Predictions:
6 users predict this event. Ferroviária will win (votes: 3 - 50%). Paysandu will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Ferroviária (votes: 2 - 40%). Paysandu (votes: 2 - 40%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 16 and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )).
- Recent performances by Ferroviária have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Paysandu has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Ferroviária is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Ferroviária: Denilson
(Knee Injury)
Edson Lucas
(Inactive)
Fabricio Daniel
(Inactive)
Gustavo Jundi
(Injury)
Gustavo Medina
(Yellow Cards)
Ian Luccas
(Inactive)
Juninho
(Injury)
Netinho
(Yellow Cards)
Thayllon
(Injury)
- There will not play in Paysandu: Anderson Leite
(Ankle Injury)
Diogo Oliveira
(Injury)
Dudu Vieira
(Inactive)
Edinho
(Inactive)
Leandro Vilela
(Injury)
Marlon Douglas
(Yellow Cards)
Matheus Vargas
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Ferroviária: Gustavo Medina
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Paysandu: Bryan Borges
(Injury)
Thiago Heleno
(Shoulder Injury)
- In the last 1 head-to-head match, Ferroviária won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.
How many head-to-head matches has Ferroviária won against Paysandu?
Ferroviária has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Paysandu won against Ferroviária?
Paysandu has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Ferroviária - Paysandu were as follows:
30.06.2025
Paysandu
-
Ferroviária
2:1
Latest results of Ferroviária
Latest results of Paysandu
Brazilian Serie B Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Fortaleza | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10:8 | 2 | 14 |
| 2 | Vila Nova FC | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 11:8 | 3 | 12 |
| 3 | Criciuma | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9:7 | 2 | 11 |
| 4 | Sao Bernardo | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8:5 | 3 | 10 |
| 5 | Juventude | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5:4 | 1 | 10 |
| 6 | Nautico | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5:7 | -2 | 10 |
| 7 | Ceara | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8:5 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | Sport Recife | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6:4 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Botafogo SP | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 10:7 | 3 | 9 |
| 10 | Operario-PR | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4:3 | 1 | 9 |
| 11 | Avai | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7:6 | 1 | 8 |
| 12 | Novorizontino | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7:6 | 1 | 8 |
| 13 | Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8:8 | 0 | 8 |
| 14 | Cuiaba | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4:4 | 0 | 8 |
| 15 | Atletico GO | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7:8 | -1 | 7 |
| 16 | Ponte Preta | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5:6 | -1 | 7 |
| 17 | Goias | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7:12 | -5 | 7 |
| 18 | Londrina | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7:8 | -1 | 5 |
| 19 | CRB | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6:11 | -5 | 2 |
| 20 | America MG | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3:10 | -7 | 2 |
Promotion ~ Serie A Betano
Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final)
Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )
