Athletico Paranaense vs São Paulo – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

06/08/2025 at 18:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Ligga Arena (Curitiba).

Copa Betano do Brasil - 1/8-finals

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
0.98	0.20
Ball Possession
70%	30%
Total shots
17	3
Shots on target
3	2
Big Chances
0	1
Corner Kicks
6	2
Passes
84% (394/468)	62% (130/209)
Yellow Cards
3	3
Red Cards
0	1
Expected Goals (xG)
0.98	0.20
xG on target (xGOT)
0.90	0.44
Total shots
17	3
Shots on target
3	2
Shots off target
7	0
Blocked Shots
7	1
Shots inside the Box
5	2
Shots outside the Box
12	1
Hit the Woodwork
0	0
Big Chances
0	1
Corner Kicks
6	2
Touches in opposition box
20	7
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
0	1
Free Kicks
17	21
Passes
84% (394/468)	62% (130/209)
Long passes
66% (35/53)	36% (20/56)
Passes in final third
80% (135/169)	38% (25/66)
Crosses
23% (7/31)	25% (1/4)
Expected assists (xA)
0.59	0.23
Throw-ins
28	23
Fouls
21	17
Tackles
71% (10/14)	69% (11/16)
Duels won
41	59
Clearances
11	32
Interceptions
9	10
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
2	2
xGOT faced
0.44	0.90
Goals prevented
0.44	-0.10

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 0)
2', Bobadilla D. 🟨,
4', Rafael 🟥,
7', Rodriguinho ↓, Jandrei ↑,
24', Viveros K. 🟨,
45+7', Robert Arboleda 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Leo Derik ↓, Leozinho ↑,
46', Robert Arboleda ↓, Sabino ↑,
46', Bobadilla D. ↓, Marcos Antonio ↑,
59', Leo 🟨,
63', Ferreira ↓, Pablo Maia ↑,
65', Zapelli B. 🟨,
66', Kaua Moraes ↓, Renan Peixoto ↑,
69', 1 - 0, Renan Peixoto ⚽,
80', Zapelli B. ↓, Giuliano ↑,
84', Luciano ↓, Tapia G. ↑,
90+1', Dudu Kogitzki ↓, Alan Kardec ↑,
90+2', Jandrei 🟨,
Penalties (3 - 0)
1, Giuliano (Pen),
1, Sabino (Pen),
2, Esquivel L. (Pen),
2, Tapia G. (Pen),
3, Mendoza S. (Pen),
3, Jandrei (Pen),

Chances of winning

Athletico Paranaense
37.8%

Draw
34.4%

São Paulo
27.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.4%

32%

32.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.9%

33.3%

31.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletico Paranaense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

Athletico Paranaense - São Paulo Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.61 ↓ (2.66)	2.9 ↓ (2.95)	3.64 ↑ (2.9)	0.3% (6%)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

What is the prediction for Athletico Paranaense - São Paulo?

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - São Paulo (1.75) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 2 high ROI users predict this event. São Paulo (votes: 2 - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:0.

Preview Facts

1st leg result: 1-2. 2nd leg.
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Athletico PR won 0.
Athletico PR has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).
São Paulo is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).
São Paulo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
There will not play in Athletico PR: Aguirre Tabares J. F. (Foot Injury) Esquivel L. (Knee Injury) Luiz Fernando (Muscle Injury) Raul (Muscle Injury)
There will not play in São Paulo: Jonathan Calleri (Knee Injury) Lucas Moura (Knee Injury) Luiz Gustavo (Contusion) Oscar (Back Injury) Ryan Francisco (Knee Injury) Wendell (Muscle Injury)
There are questionable in Athletico PR: Julimar (Knee Injury) Madson (Muscle Injury)
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Athletico PR won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 16:24. (average 0.8:1.2).
Including home matches between the teams, Athletico PR won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:9. (average 0.9:0.9).

How many head-to-head matches has Athletico Paranaense won against São Paulo?

Athletico Paranaense has won 0 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has São Paulo won against Athletico Paranaense?

São Paulo has won 4 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Athletico Paranaense - São Paulo were as follows:

31.07.2025 São Paulo - Athletico Paranaense 2:1

09.11.2024 São Paulo - Athletico Paranaense 2:1

03.07.2024 Athletico Paranaense - São Paulo 1:2

29.10.2023 Athletico Paranaense - São Paulo 1:1

21.06.2023 São Paulo - Athletico Paranaense 2:1

Latest results of Athletico Paranaense

03.08.2025 Athletico Paranaense - Paysandu 1:1 ✺

31.07.2025 São Paulo - Athletico Paranaense 2:1 ✺

27.07.2025 América Mineiro - Athletico Paranaense 2:2 ✺

22.07.2025 Athletico Paranaense - Ferroviária 1:1 ✺

19.07.2025 Volta Redonda - Athletico Paranaense 3:2 ✺

Latest results of São Paulo

03.08.2025 Internacional RS - São Paulo 1:2 ✺

31.07.2025 São Paulo - Athletico Paranaense 2:1 ✺

27.07.2025 São Paulo - Fluminense 3:1 ✺

24.07.2025 Juventude - São Paulo 0:1 ✺

19.07.2025 São Paulo - Corinthians 2:0 ✺

Draw

2026

1/256-finals

1	Barra	Bye
3	America MG	Bye
4	America SE	Tirol	1 : 2
5	Ivinhema	Independente AP	1 : 0
6	Bye	Volta Redonda
7	America RN	Bye
8	Bye	GAS
9	Sampaio Correa FE	Desportiva Ferroviaria	1 : 2
10	Bye	Sport Recife
11	Anapolis	Bye
12	Bye	Cianorte
13	Rio Branco ES	Bye
14	Bye	Athletic Club
15	Ypiranga FC	Bye
16	Ji-Parana	Pantanal	2 : 0
17	Manauara	Bye
18	Bye	Itabaiana
19	Fortaleza	Bye
20	Maguary	Laguna RN	1 : 0
21	Castanhal	Bye
22	Bye	Guarani
23	Nova Iguacu	Bye
24	Bye	Lagarto
25	Santa Catarina	IAPE	2 : 0
26	Bye	Cuiaba
27	Ceilandia	Bye
28	Bye	Jacuipense
29	Mixto	Bye
30	Bye	Botafogo PB
31	Novorizontino	Bye
32	Bye	Nacional-AM
33	Sao Luiz	Bye
34	Bye	Maranhao
35	Ceara	Bye
36	Araguaina	Primavera	0 : 3
37	Joinville	Bye
38	Bye	CSA
39	Sao Bernardo	Bye
40	Bye	Alagoinhas
41	Vasco da Gama AC	Velo Clube	1 : 2
42	Bye	Vila Nova FC
43	ASA	Bye
44	Bye	Operario MS
45	Confianca	Bye
47	Tombense	Bye
48	Bye	Oratorio
49	Ponte Preta	Bye
51	SER Caxias	Bye
52	Bye	Guarany de Bage
53	Operario VG	Bye
54	Bye	Porto Velho
55	Atletico GO	Bye
56	Primavera AC	Bragantino	2 : 1
57	Boavista	Bye
58	Bye	Maringa FC
59	Retro	Bye
60	Bye	Uberlandia
61	Gama	Monte Roraima	2 : 0
62	Bye	Goias
63	Trem	Bye
64	Bye	Fluminense-PI
65	Bare	Madureira	0 : 3
66	Bye	ABC
67	Aguia De Maraba	Bye
68	Bye	Independencia
69	Tuna Luso	Bye
70	Bye	Tocantinopolis
71	Juventude	Bye
72	Galvez	Guapore	1 : 2
73	Capital FC	Bye
74	Bye	Manaus
75	Londrina	Bye
76	Bye	SC Penedense
77	Betim	Piaui	1 : 0
78	Bye	Operario-PR
79	Juazeirense	Bye
80	Bye	Capital
81	Imperatriz	Bye
82	Bye	Amazonas
83	Figueirense	Bye
84	Bye	Azuriz
85	Santa Cruz	Bye
86	Bye	Sousa
87	CRB	Bye
88	Porto-BA	Serra Branca	2 : 1
89	Portuguesa	Bye
90	Bye	AE Altos
91	Avai	Bye
92	Bye	Porto Vitoria
93	Paysandu PA	Bye
95	Portuguesa RJ	Bye
96	Bye	Maracana

1/128-finals

1	Barra	Bye
2	America MG	Tirol
3	Ivinhema	Volta Redonda
4	America RN	GAS	3 : 0
5	Desportiva Ferroviaria	Sport Recife
6	Anapolis	Cianorte	3 : 1
7	Rio Branco ES	Athletic Club
8	Ypiranga FC	Ji-Parana	2 : 0
9	Manauara	Itabaiana
10	Fortaleza	Maguary	4 : 3
11	Castanhal	Guarani	2 : 1
12	Nova Iguacu	Lagarto
13	Santa Catarina	Cuiaba
14	Ceilandia	Jacuipense	1 : 2
15	Mixto	Botafogo PB	2 : 1
16	Novorizontino	Nacional-AM	4 : 0
17	Sao Luiz	Maranhao	0 : 1
18	Ceara	Primavera	2 : 1
19	Joinville	CSA	1 : 0
20	Sao Bernardo	Alagoinhas	2 : 0
21	Velo Clube	Vila Nova FC
22	ASA	Operario MS	1 : 2
23	Confianca	Bye
24	Tombense	Oratorio	2 : 1
25	Ponte Preta	Bye
26	SER Caxias	Guarany de Bage	0 : 1
27	Operario VG	Porto Velho	1 : 2
28	Atletico GO	Primavera AC	1 : 0
29	Boavista	Maringa FC	2 : 3
30	Retro	Uberlandia	1 : 2
31	Gama	Goias	2 : 3
32	Trem	Fluminense-PI
33	Madureira	ABC	1 : 0
34	Aguia De Maraba	Independencia	2 : 0
35	Tuna Luso	Tocantinopolis
36	Juventude	Guapore
37	Capital FC	Manaus
38	Londrina	SC Penedense	1 : 0
39	Betim	Operario-PR
40	Juazeirense	Capital	1 : 2
41	Imperatriz	Amazonas	0 : 3
42	Figueirense	Azuriz	1 : 0
43	Santa Cruz	Sousa
44	CRB	Porto-BA	6 : 0
45	Portuguesa	AE Altos	5 : 1
46	Avai	Porto Vitoria
47	Paysandu PA	Bye
48	Portuguesa RJ	Maracana

1/64-finals

1	Barra	TBD #2
2	TBD #3	America RN
3	TBD #5	Anapolis
4	TBD #7	Ypiranga FC
5	TBD #9	Fortaleza
6	Castanhal	TBD #12
7	TBD #13	Jacuipense
8	Mixto	Novorizontino
9	Maranhao	Ceara
10	Joinville	Sao Bernardo
11	TBD #21	Operario MS
12	Confianca	Tombense
13	Ponte Preta	Guarany de Bage
14	Porto Velho	Atletico GO
15	Maringa FC	Uberlandia
16	Goias	TBD #32
17	Madureira	Aguia De Maraba
18	TBD #35	TBD #36
19	TBD #37	Londrina
20	TBD #39	Capital
21	Amazonas	Figueirense
22	TBD #43	CRB
23	Portuguesa	TBD #46
24	Paysandu PA	TBD #48