Athletico Paranaense vs São Paulo – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Copa do Brasil
Result
2:0 penalties
06/08/2025 at 18:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Copa Betano do Brasil - 1/8-finals

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.980.20
Ball Possession
70%30%
Total shots
173
Shots on target
32
Big Chances
01
Corner Kicks
62
Passes
84% (394/468)62% (130/209)
Yellow Cards
33
Red Cards
01
Expected Goals (xG)
0.980.20
xG on target (xGOT)
0.900.44
Total shots
173
Shots on target
32
Shots off target
70
Blocked Shots
71
Shots inside the Box
52
Shots outside the Box
121
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
01
Corner Kicks
62
Touches in opposition box
207
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
01
Free Kicks
1721
Passes
84% (394/468)62% (130/209)
Long passes
66% (35/53)36% (20/56)
Passes in final third
80% (135/169)38% (25/66)
Crosses
23% (7/31)25% (1/4)
Expected assists (xA)
0.590.23
Throw-ins
2823
Fouls
2117
Tackles
71% (10/14)69% (11/16)
Duels won
4159
Clearances
1132
Interceptions
910
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
22
xGOT faced
0.440.90
Goals prevented
0.44-0.10

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 2', Bobadilla D. 🟨,
  • 4', Rafael 🟥,
  • 7', Rodriguinho ↓, Jandrei ↑,
  • 24', Viveros K. 🟨,
  • 45+7', Robert Arboleda 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 46', Leo Derik ↓, Leozinho ↑,
  • 46', Robert Arboleda ↓, Sabino ↑,
  • 46', Bobadilla D. ↓, Marcos Antonio ↑,
  • 59', Leo 🟨,
  • 63', Ferreira ↓, Pablo Maia ↑,
  • 65', Zapelli B. 🟨,
  • 66', Kaua Moraes ↓, Renan Peixoto ↑,
  • 69', 1 - 0, Renan Peixoto ⚽,
  • 80', Zapelli B. ↓, Giuliano ↑,
  • 84', Luciano ↓, Tapia G. ↑,
  • 90+1', Dudu Kogitzki ↓, Alan Kardec ↑,
  • 90+2', Jandrei 🟨,
  • Penalties (3 - 0)
  • 1, Giuliano (Pen),
  • 1, Sabino (Pen),
  • 2, Esquivel L. (Pen),
  • 2, Tapia G. (Pen),
  • 3, Mendoza S. (Pen),
  • 3, Jandrei (Pen),

Chances of winning


Athletico Paranaense
37.8%		Draw
34.4%		São Paulo
27.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
35.4% 32% 32.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.9% 33.3% 31.2%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Athletico Paranaense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)
  • São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (-0.9%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+3.3%)
    •

    Athletico Paranaense - São Paulo Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 2.61 ↓
    (2.66)    		 2.9 ↓
    (2.95)    		 3.64 ↑
    (2.9)    		 0.3%
    (6%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 1.75
    What is the prediction for Athletico Paranaense - São Paulo?
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH 0 - São Paulo (1.75) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
  • Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 2 high ROI users predict this event. São Paulo (votes: 2 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:0.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • 1st leg result: 1-2. 2nd leg.
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Athletico PR won 0.
    • Athletico PR has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).
    • São Paulo is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).
    • São Paulo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
    • There will not play in Athletico PR: Aguirre Tabares J. F. (Foot Injury) Esquivel L. (Knee Injury) Luiz Fernando (Muscle Injury) Raul (Muscle Injury)
    • There will not play in São Paulo: Jonathan Calleri (Knee Injury) Lucas Moura (Knee Injury) Luiz Gustavo (Contusion) Oscar (Back Injury) Ryan Francisco (Knee Injury) Wendell (Muscle Injury)
    • There are questionable in Athletico PR: Julimar (Knee Injury) Madson (Muscle Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Athletico PR won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 16:24. (average 0.8:1.2).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Athletico PR won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:9. (average 0.9:0.9).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Athletico Paranaense - São Paulo were as follows:
    31.07.2025 São Paulo - Athletico Paranaense 2:1
    09.11.2024 São Paulo - Athletico Paranaense 2:1
    03.07.2024 Athletico Paranaense - São Paulo 1:2
    29.10.2023 Athletico Paranaense - São Paulo 1:1
    21.06.2023 São Paulo - Athletico Paranaense 2:1
    Latest results of Athletico Paranaense
    03.08.2025 Athletico Paranaense - Paysandu 1:1 ✺
    31.07.2025 São Paulo - Athletico Paranaense 2:1 ✺
    27.07.2025 América Mineiro - Athletico Paranaense 2:2 ✺
    22.07.2025 Athletico Paranaense - Ferroviária 1:1 ✺
    19.07.2025 Volta Redonda - Athletico Paranaense 3:2 ✺
    Latest results of São Paulo
    03.08.2025 Internacional RS - São Paulo 1:2 ✺
    31.07.2025 São Paulo - Athletico Paranaense 2:1 ✺
    27.07.2025 São Paulo - Fluminense 3:1 ✺
    24.07.2025 Juventude - São Paulo 0:1 ✺
    19.07.2025 São Paulo - Corinthians 2:0 ✺
    Draw
    2026

    1/256-finals
    1Atletico-MGBye
    9JoinvilleBye
    10ByeCSA
    11Sao BernardoBye
    12ByeAlagoinhas
    13Sao LuizBye
    14ByeMaranhao
    15CearaBye
    16AraguainaPrimavera0 : 3
    17BoavistaBye
    18ByeMaringa FC
    19RetroBye
    20ByeUberlandia
    21GamaMonte Roraima2 : 0
    22ByeGoias
    23TremBye
    24ByeFluminense-PI
    32ByeCruzeiro
    33Athletico-PRBye
    41Operario VGBye
    42ByePorto Velho
    43Atletico GOBye
    44Primavera ACBragantino2 : 1
    45Ponte PretaBye
    47SER CaxiasBye
    48ByeGuarany de Bage
    49Flamengo RJBye
    64ByeVitoria
    65GremioBye
    73Vasco da Gama ACVelo Clube1 : 2
    74ByeVila Nova FC
    75ASABye
    76ByeOperario MS
    77ConfiancaBye
    79TombenseBye
    80ByeOratorio
    81PortuguesaBye
    82ByeAE Altos
    83AvaiBye
    84ByePorto Vitoria
    85Paysandu PABye
    87Portuguesa RJBye
    88ByeMaracana
    96ByeVasco
    97CastanhalBye
    98ByeGuarani
    99Nova IguacuBye
    100ByeLagarto
    101ManauaraBye
    102ByeItabaiana
    103FortalezaBye
    104MaguaryLaguna RN1 : 0
    105Santa CruzBye
    106ByeSousa
    107CRBBye
    108Porto-BASerra Branca2 : 1
    109ImperatrizBye
    110ByeAmazonas
    111FigueirenseBye
    112ByeAzuriz
    113BahiaBye
    128ByeRemo
    129Botafogo RJBye
    144ByeChapecoense-SC
    145BragantinoBye
    160ByeMirassol
    161IvinhemaIndependente AP1 : 0
    162ByeVolta Redonda
    163America RNBye
    164ByeGAS
    165Barra FCBye
    167America MGBye
    168America SETirol1 : 2
    176ByeCorinthians
    177Capital FCBye
    178ByeManaus
    179LondrinaBye
    180ByeSC Penedense
    181BetimPiaui1 : 0
    182ByeOperario-PR
    183JuazeirenseBye
    184ByeCapital
    192ByeFluminense
    193PalmeirasBye
    201Santa CatarinaIAPE2 : 0
    202ByeCuiaba
    203CeilandiaBye
    204ByeJacuipense
    205MixtoBye
    206ByeBotafogo PB
    207NovorizontinoBye
    208ByeNacional-AM
    209Sampaio Correa FEDesportiva Ferroviaria1 : 2
    210ByeSport Recife
    211AnapolisBye
    212ByeCianorte
    213Rio Branco ESBye
    214ByeAthletic Club
    215Ypiranga FCBye
    216Ji-ParanaPantanal2 : 0
    224ByeInternacional
    225SantosBye
    240ByeCoritiba
    241Sao PauloBye
    249Tuna LusoBye
    250ByeTocantinopolis
    251JuventudeBye
    252GalvezGuapore1 : 2
    253BareMadureira0 : 3
    254ByeABC
    255Aguia De MarabaBye
    256ByeIndependencia

    1/128-finals
    1Atletico-MGBye
    5JoinvilleCSA1 : 0
    6Sao BernardoAlagoinhas2 : 0
    7Sao LuizMaranhao0 : 1
    8CearaPrimavera2 : 1
    9BoavistaMaringa FC2 : 3
    10RetroUberlandia1 : 2
    11GamaGoias2 : 3
    12TremFluminense-PI0 : 1
    16ByeCruzeiro
    17Athletico-PRBye
    21Operario VGPorto Velho1 : 2
    22Atletico GOPrimavera AC1 : 0
    23Ponte PretaBye
    24SER CaxiasGuarany de Bage0 : 1
    25Flamengo RJBye
    32ByeVitoria
    33GremioBye
    37Velo ClubeVila Nova FC0 : 1
    38ASAOperario MS1 : 2
    39ConfiancaBye
    40TombenseOratorio2 : 1
    41PortuguesaAE Altos5 : 1
    42AvaiPorto Vitoria3 : 0
    43Paysandu PABye
    44Portuguesa RJMaracana1 : 0
    48ByeVasco
    49CastanhalGuarani2 : 1
    50Nova IguacuLagarto2 : 1
    51ManauaraItabaiana3 : 1
    52FortalezaMaguary4 : 3
    53Santa CruzSousa0 : 1
    54CRBPorto-BA6 : 0
    55ImperatrizAmazonas0 : 3
    56FigueirenseAzuriz1 : 0
    57BahiaBye
    64ByeRemo
    65Botafogo RJBye
    72ByeChapecoense-SC
    73BragantinoBye
    80ByeMirassol
    81IvinhemaVolta Redonda2 : 4
    82America RNGAS3 : 0
    83Barra FCBye
    84America MGTirol2 : 1
    88ByeCorinthians
    89Capital FCManaus1 : 2
    90LondrinaSC Penedense1 : 0
    91BetimOperario-PR0 : 2
    92JuazeirenseCapital1 : 2
    96ByeFluminense
    97PalmeirasBye
    101Santa CatarinaCuiaba2 : 1
    102CeilandiaJacuipense1 : 2
    103MixtoBotafogo PB2 : 1
    104NovorizontinoNacional-AM4 : 0
    105Desportiva FerroviariaSport Recife0 : 1
    106AnapolisCianorte3 : 1
    107Rio Branco ESAthletic Club1 : 2
    108Ypiranga FCJi-Parana2 : 0
    112ByeInternacional
    113SantosBye
    120ByeCoritiba
    121Sao PauloBye
    125Tuna LusoTocantinopolis4 : 1
    126JuventudeGuapore5 : 0
    127MadureiraABC1 : 0
    128Aguia De MarabaIndependencia2 : 0

    1/64-finals
    1Atletico-MGBye
    3JoinvilleSao Bernardo0 : 1
    4MaranhaoCeara0 : 1
    5Maringa FCUberlandia3 : 2
    6GoiasFluminense-PI3 : 0
    8ByeCruzeiro
    9Athletico-PRBye
    11Porto VelhoAtletico GO0 : 1
    12Ponte PretaGuarany de Bage1 : 0
    13Flamengo RJBye
    16ByeVitoria
    17GremioBye
    19Vila Nova FCOperario MS2 : 1
    20ConfiancaTombense2 : 0
    21PortuguesaAvai2 : 1
    22Paysandu PAPortuguesa RJ3 : 1
    24ByeVasco
    25CastanhalNova Iguacu0 : 4
    26ManauaraFortaleza0 : 1
    27SousaCRB0 : 2
    28AmazonasFigueirense0 : 1
    29BahiaBye
    32ByeRemo
    33Botafogo RJBye
    36ByeChapecoense-SC
    37BragantinoBye
    40ByeMirassol
    41Volta RedondaAmerica RN1 : 0
    42Barra FCAmerica MG1 : 0
    44ByeCorinthians
    45ManausLondrina0 : 1
    46Operario-PRCapital2 : 0
    48ByeFluminense
    49PalmeirasBye
    51Santa CatarinaJacuipense0 : 1
    52MixtoNovorizontino0 : 3
    53Sport RecifeAnapolis2 : 1
    54Athletic ClubYpiranga FC2 : 0
    56ByeInternacional
    57SantosBye
    60ByeCoritiba
    61Sao PauloBye
    63Tuna LusoJuventude1 : 2
    64MadureiraAguia De Maraba0 : 1

    1/32-finals
    1Atletico-MGBye
    2Sao BernardoCeara0 : 1
    3Maringa FCGoias0 : 1
    4ByeCruzeiro
    5Athletico-PRBye
    6Atletico GOPonte Preta1 : 0
    7Flamengo RJBye
    8ByeVitoria
    9GremioBye
    10Vila Nova FCConfianca0 : 1
    11PortuguesaPaysandu PA2 : 3
    12ByeVasco
    13Nova IguacuFortaleza0 : 1
    14CRBFigueirense1 : 0
    15BahiaBye
    16ByeRemo
    17Botafogo RJBye
    18ByeChapecoense-SC
    19BragantinoBye
    20ByeMirassol
    21Volta RedondaBarra FC0 : 1
    22ByeCorinthians
    23LondrinaOperario-PR0 : 1
    24ByeFluminense
    25PalmeirasBye
    26JacuipenseNovorizontino1 : 0
    27Sport RecifeAthletic Club1 : 3
    28ByeInternacional
    29SantosBye
    30ByeCoritiba
    31Sao PauloBye
    32JuventudeAguia De Maraba3 : 0

    1/16-finals
    1Atletico-MGCeara
    2GoiasCruzeiro
    3Athletico-PRAtletico GO
    4Flamengo RJVitoria
    5GremioConfianca
    6Paysandu PAVasco
    7FortalezaCRB
    8BahiaRemo
    9Botafogo RJChapecoense-SC
    10BragantinoMirassol
    11Barra FCCorinthians
    12Operario-PRFluminense
    13PalmeirasJacuipense
    14Athletic ClubInternacional
    15SantosCoritiba
    16Sao PauloJuventude
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