Result
3:1
03/10/2025 at 23:05 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga MX - Apertura - Round 12
- Referee: Peinaldo Aguirre Y. (Mex)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Mexico | Amazon Prime Video, VIX+, ViX Premium |
 South-america | ViX Latin America |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.25 | 1.09 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 42% | 58% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (257/311) | 86% (351/408) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.25 | 1.09 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.41 | 1.32 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 7 | 6 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 4 | 10 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 3 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 10 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 12 | 23 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 17 | 17 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (257/311) | 86% (351/408) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 53% (25/47) | 59% (29/49) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 66% (31/47) | 73% (74/101) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 30% (3/10) | 29% (10/35) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.55 | 0.94 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 12 | 30 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 17 | 17 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 84% (16/19) | 71% (5/7) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 53 | 39 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 32 | 14 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 12 | 6 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 4 | 0 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.32 | 1.41 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.32 | -1.59 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 1)
- 3', 0 - 1, Estupinan O. ⚽, Murillo J. (A),
- 31', 1 - 1, Djurdjevic U. (Pen),
- 33', 2 - 1, Gonzalez D. ⚽, Hernandez S. (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 59', Murillo J. 🟨,
- 60', Gonzalez D. 🟨,
- 64', 3 - 1, Ramirez P. ⚽, Gonzalez D. (A),
- 68', Garcia D. ↓, Valoyes D. ↑,
- 68', Puma ↓, Zaldivar A. ↑,
- 69', Gustavo Ferrareis 🟨,
- 78', Madson ↓, Fulgencio R. ↑,
- 78', Guilherme Castilho ↓, Villalpando D. ↑,
- 78', Garcia M. E. ↓, Aguirre E. ↑,
- 82', Djurdjevic U. 🟨,
- 82', Hernandez S. ↓, Coccaro M. ↑,
- 82', Djurdjevic U. ↓, San Martin J. ↑,
- 84', Mayorga A. 🟨,
- 87', Matheus Doria 🟨,
- 88', Pizarro R. ↓, Ricardinho ↑,
- 90+2', Zaldivar A. 🟨,
- 90+3', Ramirez A. ↓, Gonzalez A. ↑,
Chances of winning
Atlas
32.1% | Draw
27.3% | Juárez
40.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Atlas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)Juárez has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlas than the current prediction. (+2.7%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Juárez than the current prediction. (-1.5%)
Atlas - Juárez Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.95 ↑
(2.65) |
3.44 ↓
(3.55) |
2.32 ↓
(2.4) |
6.1%
(7.6%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Atlas - Juárez?
Users Predictions:
8 users predict this event. Atlas will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Juárez will win (votes: 4 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Juárez: 15.4% – 84.6%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 14 and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlas won 2.
- Atlas has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Juárez is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
- There will not play in Atlas: Cruz C.
(Knee Injury)
Ortega E.
(Suspended)
Rodriguez J.
(Injury)
Zaldivar E.
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Juárez: Ochoa D.
(International duty)
- There are questionable in Atlas: Lozano J.
(Injury)
Pier R.
(Injury)
Rocha A.
(Injury)
- In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Atlas won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 16:8. (average 1.3:0.7).
- Including home matches between the teams, Atlas won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 8:3. (average 1.3:0.5).
How many head-to-head matches has Atlas won against Juárez?
Atlas has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Juárez won against Atlas?
Juárez has won 0 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Atlas - Juárez were as follows:
05.04.2025
Atlas
-
Juárez
1:1
05.07.2024
Juárez
-
Atlas
2:2
28.01.2024
Atlas
-
Juárez
2:1
22.09.2023
Juárez
-
Atlas
1:2
09.04.2023
Juárez
-
Atlas
1:1
Mexican Liga MX Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Toluca | 13 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 39:16 | 23 | 31 |
| 2 | Cruz Azul | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 24:16 | 8 | 28 |
| 3 | Club America | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 27:13 | 14 | 27 |
| 4 | Monterrey | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 26:20 | 6 | 27 |
| 5 | Tigres UANL | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 27:13 | 14 | 26 |
| 6 | Pachuca | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 18:15 | 3 | 21 |
| 7 | Club Tijuana | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 26:17 | 9 | 20 |
| 8 | Guadalajara Chivas | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 20:18 | 2 | 20 |
| 9 | Juarez | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 18:17 | 1 | 19 |
| 10 | UNAM Pumas | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 16:20 | -4 | 14 |
| 11 | Atl. San Luis | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 19:20 | -1 | 13 |
| 12 | Santos Laguna | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 15:21 | -6 | 13 |
| 13 | Atlas | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 21:29 | -8 | 13 |
| 14 | Club Leon | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 12:24 | -12 | 12 |
| 15 | Mazatlan FC | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 15:23 | -8 | 11 |
| 16 | Queretaro | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 14:25 | -11 | 11 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 14:26 | -12 | 9 |
| 18 | Puebla | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 14:32 | -18 | 8 |
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: )
