Result
2:2
29/09/2025 at 20:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga MX Women - Apertura - Round 13
- Referee: Ximena M. (Mex)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Mexico | Tubi TV |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 54% | 46% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 6 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 6 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 9 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 5', Ramirez M. 🟨,
- 6', Ceren B. (Pen),
- 30', van de Sanden S. 🟨,
- 38', Ramirez M. 🟨,
- 42', Le Sommer E. 🟨,
- 45+2', 0 - 1, Robert F. ⚽,
- 45+6', Ceren B. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (2 - 1)
- 46', Peraza C. ↓, Vazquez S. ↑,
- 47', 0 - 2, Le Sommer E. ⚽,
- 60', Huerta A. ↓, Fernandez K. ↑,
- 60', Huerta R. F. T. ↓, Garcia J. ↑,
- 64', Garcia J. 🟨,
- 67', 1 - 2, Acevedo V. ⚽,
- 72', Vazquez S. 🟨,
- 84', Robert F. ↓, Cortez V. ↑,
- 90', Valadez N. 🟨,
- 90+9', 2 - 2, Fernandez K. ⚽,
- 90+10', Le Sommer E. ↓, Munoz I. ↑,
Chances of winning
Atlas
23.8% | Draw
24.9% | Toluca
51.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Atlas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.6%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Atlas's form might have worsened.Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.2%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Toluca's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlas than the current prediction. (+8.7%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Atlas, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (-12.1%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Toluca, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Atlas - Toluca Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.99 ↑
(2.71) |
3.79 ↑
(3.2) |
1.75 ↓
(2.37) |
8.5%
(10.3%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
What is the prediction for Atlas - Toluca?
Users Predictions:
6 users predict this event. Atlas will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Toluca will win (votes: 3 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
Preview Facts
- Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 12 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX Women (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlas won 2.
- Atlas is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- Toluca's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Atlas may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Toluca might have a minor edge in this game.
- In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Atlas won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 25:17. (average 2.3:1.5).
- Including home matches between the teams, Atlas won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:9. (average 2:1.5).
How many head-to-head matches has Atlas won against Toluca?
Atlas has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Toluca won against Atlas?
Toluca has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Atlas - Toluca were as follows:
05.02.2025
Toluca
-
Atlas
0:2
12.09.2024
Atlas
-
Toluca
1:1
12.01.2024
Atlas
-
Toluca
2:2
12.10.2023
Toluca
-
Atlas
2:1
09.02.2023
Toluca
-
Atlas
3:4
Mexican Liga MX Women Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Tigres UANL W ✔ | 15 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 53:8 | 45 | 38 |
| 2 | Pachuca W ✔ | 15 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 52:18 | 34 | 36 |
| 3 | Club America W ✔ | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 48:19 | 29 | 32 |
| 4 | Guadalajara Chivas W | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 23:14 | 9 | 29 |
| 5 | Toluca W | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 28:15 | 13 | 28 |
| 6 | Monterrey W | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 33:22 | 11 | 26 |
| 7 | Club Leon W | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 29:30 | -1 | 24 |
| 8 | UNAM Pumas W | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 33:28 | 5 | 22 |
| 9 | Atlas W | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 25:28 | -3 | 22 |
| 10 | Cruz Azul W | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 32:23 | 9 | 21 |
| 11 | Atl. San Luis W | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 19:20 | -1 | 21 |
| 12 | Juarez W | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 16:14 | 2 | 20 |
| 13 | Club Tijuana W | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 16:26 | -10 | 12 |
| 14 | Queretaro W | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 13:42 | -29 | 10 |
| 15 | Santos Laguna W | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 15:32 | -17 | 9 |
| 16 | Necaxa W | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 8:32 | -24 | 8 |
| 17 | Puebla W | 14 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 5:36 | -31 | 5 |
| 18 | Mazatlan FC W | 14 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 7:48 | -41 | 2 |
Promotion ~ Liga MX Women (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Clinched Spots for Teams
Tigres UANL W is Qualified for Liga MX Women (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Pachuca W is Qualified for Liga MX Women (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Club America W is Qualified for Liga MX Women (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
