Bahia vs Atlético Mineiro – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Brazilian Serie A Bahia - Atlético Mineiro
Result
2:1
12/07/2025 at 20:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Serie A Betano - Round 13
  • Where to Watch on TV:
brazilBrazilSporTV

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.560.31
Ball Possession
47%53%
Total shots
1810
Shots on target
52
Big Chances
00
Corner Kicks
47
Passes
79% (295/372)82% (344/419)
Yellow Cards
22
Expected Goals (xG)
0.560.31
xG on target (xGOT)
0.410.20
Total shots
1810
Shots on target
52
Shots off target
94
Blocked Shots
44
Shots inside the Box
73
Shots outside the Box
117
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
00
Corner Kicks
47
Touches in opposition box
1916
Accurate through passes
01
Offsides
00
Free Kicks
1112
Passes
79% (295/372)82% (344/419)
Long passes
44% (23/52)36% (16/45)
Passes in final third
74% (104/140)75% (78/104)
Crosses
43% (6/14)19% (3/16)
Expected assists (xA)
0.510.34
Throw-ins
2320
Fouls
1211
Tackles
59% (13/22)48% (13/27)
Duels won
5064
Clearances
2127
Interceptions
48
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
13
xGOT faced
0.200.41
Goals prevented
-0.80-1.06

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 13', Willian Jose 🟨,
  • 15', Guilherme Arana 🟨,
  • 20', Gustavo Scarpa 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (2 - 1)
  • 46', Gustavo Scarpa , Cuello ,
  • 46', Willian Jose , Rodriguez L. ,
  • 53', 1 - 0, Luciano Juba ,
  • 62', Gabriel Menino , Igor Gomes ,
  • 62', Dudu , Junior Santos ,
  • 81', Ademir , Kayky ,
  • 84', Caio Alexandre , Nicolas Acevedo ,
  • 85', Alonso J. , Isaac ,
  • 90', Erick Pulga , Cauly ,
  • 90', Everton Ribeiro , Michel Araujo ,
  • 90', Natanael , Bernard ,
  • 90+1', 1 - 1, Hulk ,
  • 90+8', 2 - 1, Michel Araujo , Cauly (A),
  • 90+9', Michel Araujo 🟨,

Chances of winning


Bahia
41.4%
Draw
31.6%
Atlético Mineiro
27%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
40.3% 32% 27.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.7% 33.1% 26.7%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Bahia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)
  • Atlético Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (+0.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (-0.3%)
  • Bahia - Atlético Mineiro Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.3
    (2.37)
    3.02
    (2.98)
    3.52
    (3.46)
    5.1%
    (4.7%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
  • What is the prediction for Bahia - Atlético Mineiro?
  • Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Bahia will win (votes: 12 - 60%). Atlético MG will win (votes: 1 - 5%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 35%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Bahia: 38.5%81.5%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 7 high ROI users predict this event. Bahia (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: ) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 2.
    • Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.
    • Bahia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • Recently, Atlético MG has had a series of home games.
    • Bahia is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
    • There will not play in Bahia: Erick (Hamstring Injury) Kanu (Muscle Injury)
    • There will not play in Atlético MG: Cadu (Knee Injury) Caio Maia (Knee Injury) Cuello (Hamstring Injury) Everson (Yellow Cards) Palacios Alzate B. (Inactive) Patrick Silva (Broken tailbone) Rony (Yellow Cards)
    • There are questionable in Bahia: Rezende (Back Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 6 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 26:24. (average 1.3:1.2).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Bahia won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 20:12. (average 2:1.2).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Bahia - Atlético Mineiro were as follows:
    15.09.2024 Bahia - Atlético Mineiro 3:0
    02.06.2024 Atlético Mineiro - Bahia 1:1
    06.12.2023 Bahia - Atlético Mineiro 4:1
    13.08.2023 Atlético Mineiro - Bahia 1:0
    Latest results of Bahia
    09.07.2025 Bahia - Fortaleza 2:1
    04.06.2025 Confiança - Bahia 2:0
    31.05.2025 Bahia - São Paulo 2:1
    Latest results of Atlético Mineiro
    Brazilian Serie A Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Flamengo RJ19134236:92743
    2Palmeiras18123324:15939
    3Cruzeiro20115432:141838
    4Bahia1896325:17833
    5Botafogo RJ1885523:111229
    6Mirassol1878329:191029
    7Sao Paulo2078524:22229
    8Fluminense1883723:24-127
    9Bragantino2083922:26-427
    10Ceara1974819:19025
    11Atletico-MG1866620:21-124
    12Internacional1966722:26-424
    13Gremio1965819:25-623
    14Corinthians2057819:25-622
    15Santos19631020:29-921
    16Vasco19541025:26-119
    17Vitoria20310718:24-619
    18Juventude19531117:38-2118
    19Fortaleza19361019:31-1215
    20Sport Recife18171012:27-1510

          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
          Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet