Bahia vs Atlético Mineiro – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Brazilian Serie A Bahia - Atlético Mineiro
Result
2:1
12/07/2025 at 20:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Serie A Betano - Round 13
  • Where to Watch on TV:
brazilBrazilSporTV

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.560.31
Ball Possession
47%53%
Total shots
1810
Shots on target
52
Big Chances
00
Corner Kicks
47
Passes
79% (295/372)82% (344/419)
Yellow Cards
22
Expected Goals (xG)
0.560.31
xG on target (xGOT)
0.410.20
Total shots
1810
Shots on target
52
Shots off target
94
Blocked Shots
44
Shots inside the Box
73
Shots outside the Box
117
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
00
Corner Kicks
47
Touches in opposition box
1916
Accurate through passes
01
Offsides
00
Free Kicks
1112
Passes
79% (295/372)82% (344/419)
Long passes
44% (23/52)36% (16/45)
Passes in final third
74% (104/140)75% (78/104)
Crosses
43% (6/14)19% (3/16)
Expected assists (xA)
0.510.34
Throw-ins
2320
Fouls
1211
Tackles
59% (13/22)48% (13/27)
Duels won
5064
Clearances
2127
Interceptions
48
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
13
xGOT faced
0.200.41
Goals prevented
-0.80-1.06

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 13', Willian Jose 🟨,
  • 15', Guilherme Arana 🟨,
  • 20', Gustavo Scarpa 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (2 - 1)
  • 46', Gustavo Scarpa , Cuello ,
  • 46', Willian Jose , Rodriguez L. ,
  • 53', 1 - 0, Luciano Juba ,
  • 62', Gabriel Menino , Igor Gomes ,
  • 62', Dudu , Junior Santos ,
  • 81', Ademir , Kayky ,
  • 84', Caio Alexandre , Nicolas Acevedo ,
  • 85', Alonso J. , Isaac ,
  • 90', Erick Pulga , Cauly ,
  • 90', Everton Ribeiro , Michel Araujo ,
  • 90', Natanael , Bernard ,
  • 90+1', 1 - 1, Hulk ,
  • 90+8', 2 - 1, Michel Araujo , Cauly (A),
  • 90+9', Michel Araujo 🟨,

Chances of winning


Bahia
41.4%
Draw
31.6%
Atlético Mineiro
27%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
40.3% 32% 27.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.7% 33.1% 26.7%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Bahia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)
  • Atlético Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (+0.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (-0.3%)
  • Bahia - Atlético Mineiro Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.3
    (2.37)
    3.02
    (2.98)
    3.52
    (3.46)
    5.1%
    (4.7%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
  • What is the prediction for Bahia - Atlético Mineiro?
  • Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Bahia will win (votes: 12 - 60%). Atlético MG will win (votes: 1 - 5%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 35%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Bahia: 38.5%81.5%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 7 high ROI users predict this event. Bahia (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: ) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 2.
    • Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.
    • Bahia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • Recently, Atlético MG has had a series of home games.
    • Bahia is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
    • There will not play in Bahia: Erick (Hamstring Injury) Kanu (Muscle Injury)
    • There will not play in Atlético MG: Cadu (Knee Injury) Caio Maia (Knee Injury) Cuello (Hamstring Injury) Everson (Yellow Cards) Palacios Alzate B. (Inactive) Patrick Silva (Broken tailbone) Rony (Yellow Cards)
    • There are questionable in Bahia: Rezende (Back Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 6 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 26:24. (average 1.3:1.2).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Bahia won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 20:12. (average 2:1.2).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Bahia - Atlético Mineiro were as follows:
    15.09.2024 Bahia - Atlético Mineiro 3:0
    02.06.2024 Atlético Mineiro - Bahia 1:1
    06.12.2023 Bahia - Atlético Mineiro 4:1
    13.08.2023 Atlético Mineiro - Bahia 1:0
    Latest results of Bahia
    09.07.2025 Bahia - Fortaleza 2:1
    04.06.2025 Confiança - Bahia 2:0
    31.05.2025 Bahia - São Paulo 2:1
    Latest results of Atlético Mineiro
    Brazilian Serie A Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Flamengo RJ16113230:62436
    2Cruzeiro17104328:111734
    3Palmeiras15102319:12732
    4Bahia1584320:13728
    5Bragantino1783620:20027
    6Botafogo RJ1575318:81026
    7Mirassol1567224:141025
    8Sao Paulo1757518:19-122
    9Ceara1663716:16021
    10Internacional1656517:20-321
    11Corinthians1756616:20-421
    12Fluminense1562717:20-320
    13Atletico-MG1555516:16020
    14Gremio1655616:22-620
    15Vitoria1738614:18-417
    16Vasco1543816:20-415
    17Santos1643915:21-615
    18Fortaleza1635817:23-614
    19Juventude15321010:32-2211
    20Sport Recife1505109:25-165

          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
          Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet