Result
2:1
12/07/2025 at 20:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 13
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | SporTV |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.56 | 0.31 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 47% | 53% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (295/372) | 82% (344/419) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.56 | 0.31 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.41 | 0.20 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 9 | 4 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 11 | 7 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 19 | 16 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (295/372) | 82% (344/419) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 44% (23/52) | 36% (16/45) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 74% (104/140) | 75% (78/104) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 43% (6/14) | 19% (3/16) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.51 | 0.34 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 23 | 20 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 11 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 59% (13/22) | 48% (13/27) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 50 | 64 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 21 | 27 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 4 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.20 | 0.41 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.80 | -1.06 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 13', Willian Jose 🟨,
- 15', Guilherme Arana 🟨,
- 20', Gustavo Scarpa 🟨,
- 2nd Half (2 - 1)
- 46', Gustavo Scarpa ↓, Cuello ↑,
- 46', Willian Jose ↓, Rodriguez L. ↑,
- 53', 1 - 0, Luciano Juba ⚽,
- 62', Gabriel Menino ↓, Igor Gomes ↑,
- 62', Dudu ↓, Junior Santos ↑,
- 81', Ademir ↓, Kayky ↑,
- 84', Caio Alexandre ↓, Nicolas Acevedo ↑,
- 85', Alonso J. ↓, Isaac ↑,
- 90', Erick Pulga ↓, Cauly ↑,
- 90', Everton Ribeiro ↓, Michel Araujo ↑,
- 90', Natanael ↓, Bernard ↑,
- 90+1', 1 - 1, Hulk ⚽,
- 90+8', 2 - 1, Michel Araujo ⚽, Cauly (A),
- 90+9', Michel Araujo 🟨,
Chances of winning
Bahia
41.4% | Draw
31.6% | Atlético Mineiro
27% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Bahia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)Atlético Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (+0.3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (-0.3%)
Bahia - Atlético Mineiro Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.3 ↓
(2.37) |
3.02 ↑
(2.98) |
3.52 ↑
(3.46) |
5.1%
(4.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Bahia - Atlético Mineiro?
Users Predictions:
20 users predict this event. Bahia will win (votes: 12 - 60%). Atlético MG will win (votes: 1 - 5%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 35%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bahia: 38.5% – 81.5%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 7 high ROI users predict this event. Bahia (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: ) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 2.
- Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.
- Bahia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, Atlético MG has had a series of home games.
- Bahia is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Bahia: Erick
(Hamstring Injury)
Kanu
(Muscle Injury)
- There will not play in Atlético MG: Cadu
(Knee Injury)
Caio Maia
(Knee Injury)
Cuello
(Hamstring Injury)
Everson
(Yellow Cards)
Palacios Alzate B.
(Inactive)
Patrick Silva
(Broken tailbone)
Rony
(Yellow Cards)
- There are questionable in Bahia: Rezende
(Back Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 6 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 26:24. (average 1.3:1.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Bahia won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 20:12. (average 2:1.2).
How many head-to-head matches has Bahia won against Atlético Mineiro?
Bahia has won 2 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Atlético Mineiro won against Bahia?
Atlético Mineiro has won 1 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Bahia - Atlético Mineiro were as follows:
15.09.2024
Bahia
-
Atlético Mineiro
3:0
02.06.2024
Atlético Mineiro
-
Bahia
1:1
06.12.2023
Bahia
-
Atlético Mineiro
4:1
13.08.2023
Atlético Mineiro
-
Bahia
1:0
Latest results of Atlético Mineiro
Brazilian Serie A Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Palmeiras | 28 | 19 | 4 | 5 | 53:26 | 27 | 61 |
| 2 | Flamengo RJ | 29 | 18 | 7 | 4 | 56:16 | 40 | 61 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 29 | 16 | 8 | 5 | 42:21 | 21 | 56 |
| 4 | Mirassol | 30 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 52:31 | 21 | 55 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 14 | 7 | 9 | 40:34 | 6 | 49 |
| 6 | Botafogo RJ | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 39:26 | 13 | 46 |
| 7 | Fluminense | 29 | 13 | 5 | 11 | 36:35 | 1 | 44 |
| 8 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 33:33 | 0 | 41 |
| 9 | Vasco | 29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | 46:41 | 5 | 39 |
| 10 | Corinthians | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 32:35 | -3 | 39 |
| 11 | Bragantino | 29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 34:44 | -10 | 36 |
| 12 | Atletico-MG | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 27:32 | -5 | 36 |
| 13 | Gremio | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 30:37 | -7 | 36 |
| 14 | Ceara | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 27:28 | -1 | 35 |
| 15 | Internacional | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 35:43 | -8 | 35 |
| 16 | Santos | 28 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 28:40 | -12 | 31 |
| 17 | Vitoria | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 27:44 | -17 | 31 |
| 18 | Fortaleza | 29 | 7 | 6 | 16 | 27:44 | -17 | 27 |
| 19 | Juventude | 29 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 23:53 | -30 | 26 |
| 20 | Sport Recife | 29 | 2 | 11 | 16 | 22:46 | -24 | 17 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
