Result
3:2
20/07/2025 at 16:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 15
- Referee: Gomes Stefano A. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, TV Globo, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 China | K-Ball |
 Croatia | Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go |
 Ecuador | El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol |
 Germany | Sportdigital FUSSBALL |
 Israel | Sport 2 |
 North-macedonia | MaxTV GO |
 Portugal | Canal 11 |
 Russia | MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru |
 Serbia | Arena Sport 1 |
 Switzerland | Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.89 | 0.29 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 58% | 42% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 6 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 0 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (325/394) | 76% (226/296) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.89 | 0.29 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.54 | 1.00 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 6 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 6 | 0 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 0 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 11 | 6 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 0 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 22 | 0 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 16 | 22 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (325/394) | 76% (226/296) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 60% (39/65) | 48% (25/52) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 67% (79/118) | 42% (20/48) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 32% (6/19) | 0% (0/4) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 2.36 | 0.04 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 21 | 17 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 22 | 16 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 70% (14/20) | 79% (11/14) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 56 | 52 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 10 | 26 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 5 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.00 | 2.54 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -1.00 | 0.54 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 9', Gabriel Menino 🟨,
- 32', Gabriel Menino ↓, Romulus ↑,
- 33', 1 - 0, Lucas Evangelista ⚽, Piquerez J. (A),
- 35', Lyanco 🟨,
- 41', Moreno A. 🟨,
- 42', 1 - 1, Hulk ⚽,
- 44', Romulus 🟨,
- 2nd Half (2 - 1)
- 51', 2 - 1, Alonso J. (Own goal),
- 58', Gustavo Scarpa ↓, Junior Santos ↑,
- 58', Guilherme Arana ↓, Caio Paulista ↑,
- 63', Felipe Anderson ↓, Sosa R. ↑,
- 66', Bruno Fuchs 🟨,
- 70', Igor Gomes ↓, Bernard ↑,
- 70', Natanael ↓, Renzo Saravia ↑,
- 77', 3 - 1, Mauricio ⚽, Torres F. (A),
- 81', Mauricio ↓, Martinez E. ↑,
- 82', Vitor Roque ↓, Allan ↑,
- 82', Moreno A. ↓, Luighi ↑,
- 85', Torres F. ↓, Raphael Veiga ↑,
- 90+1', 3 - 2, Hulk ⚽,
Chances of winning
Palmeiras
55.4% | Draw
27.7% | Atlético Mineiro
16.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Palmeiras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)Atlético Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (-0.3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (+0.5%)
Palmeiras - Atlético Mineiro Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.71 ↓
(1.75) |
3.42 ↑
(3.35) |
5.53 ↑
(5.33) |
5.9%
(5.8%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Palmeiras - Atlético Mineiro?
Users Predictions:
17 users predict this event. Palmeiras will win (votes: 9 - 52.9%). Atlético MG will win (votes: 1 - 5.9%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 41.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Palmeiras: 29.2% – 76.6%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 4 high ROI users predict this event. Palmeiras (votes: 1 - 25%). Atlético MG (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: ) and 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 3.
- Palmeiras has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Atlético MG is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Palmeiras may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Recently, Palmeiras has had a series of home games.
- In this match, Palmeiras is the team to beat.
- There will not play in Palmeiras: Flaco Lopez
(Yellow Cards)
Murilo
(Thigh Injury)
Paulinho
(Leg Injury)
- There will not play in Atlético MG: Cadu
(Knee Injury)
Caio Maia
(Knee Injury)
Fausto Vera
(Stomach Disorder)
Patrick Silva
(Broken tailbone)
- There are questionable in Palmeiras: Bruno Rodrigues
(Knee Injury)
Figueiredo
(Inactive)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 8 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 25:17. (average 1.3:0.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, Palmeiras won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:8. (average 1.2:0.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Palmeiras won against Atlético Mineiro?
Palmeiras has won 4 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Atlético Mineiro won against Palmeiras?
Atlético Mineiro has won 1 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Palmeiras - Atlético Mineiro were as follows:
28.09.2024
Palmeiras
-
Atlético Mineiro
2:1
17.06.2024
Atlético Mineiro
-
Palmeiras
0:4
19.10.2023
Palmeiras
-
Atlético Mineiro
0:2
09.08.2023
Palmeiras
-
Atlético Mineiro
0:0
02.08.2023
Atlético Mineiro
-
Palmeiras
0:1
Latest results of Palmeiras
Latest results of Atlético Mineiro
Brazilian Serie A Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Flamengo RJ | 19 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 36:9 | 27 | 43 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 18 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 24:15 | 9 | 39 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 20 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 32:14 | 18 | 38 |
| 4 | Bahia | 18 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 25:17 | 8 | 33 |
| 5 | Botafogo RJ | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 23:11 | 12 | 29 |
| 6 | Mirassol | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 29:19 | 10 | 29 |
| 7 | Sao Paulo | 20 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 24:22 | 2 | 29 |
| 8 | Fluminense | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 23:24 | -1 | 27 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 20 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 22:26 | -4 | 27 |
| 10 | Ceara | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 19:19 | 0 | 25 |
| 11 | Atletico-MG | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 20:21 | -1 | 24 |
| 12 | Internacional | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 22:26 | -4 | 24 |
| 13 | Gremio | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 19:25 | -6 | 23 |
| 14 | Corinthians | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 19:25 | -6 | 22 |
| 15 | Santos | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 20:29 | -9 | 21 |
| 16 | Vasco | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 25:26 | -1 | 19 |
| 17 | Vitoria | 20 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 18:24 | -6 | 19 |
| 18 | Juventude | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 17:38 | -21 | 18 |
| 19 | Fortaleza | 19 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 19:31 | -12 | 15 |
| 20 | Sport Recife | 18 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 12:27 | -15 | 10 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
