Result
2:2
28/01/2026 at 17:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 1
- Referee: Arleu B. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Austria | DAZN |
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Premium 1 |
 Brazil | Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 Germany | DAZN Deutsch, Sportdigital FUSSBALL |
 Israel | Sport 4 |
 Mexico | Azteca Deportes, Fanatiz |
 Serbia | Arena Premium 3 |
 Switzerland | DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.55 | 1.22 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 52% | 48% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 7 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 88% (339/385) | 84% (285/338) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.55 | 1.22 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.28 | 2.15 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 7 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 6 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 7 | 9 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 11 | 17 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 20 | 14 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 88% (339/385) | 84% (285/338) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 56% (25/45) | 59% (23/39) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 75% (79/106) | 78% (58/74) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 31% (4/13) | 18% (4/22) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.34 | 1.12 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 17 | 10 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 14 | 20 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 67% (10/15) | 53% (9/17) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 45 | 49 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 21 | 15 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 6 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.15 | 0.28 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.15 | -0.72 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 27', 0 - 1, Lopez J. ⚽, Andreas Pereira (A),
- 44', 1 - 1, Victor Hugo ⚽, Lodi R. (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 47', Franco A. 🟨,
- 61', Bernard ↓, Gustavo Scarpa ↑,
- 61', Dudu ↓, Cuello ↑,
- 74', 2 - 1, Khellven (Own goal),
- 77', Victor Hugo ↓, Alexsander ↑,
- 79', Sosa R. ↓, Vitor Roque ↑,
- 81', Mauricio 🟨,
- 83', Allan Elias ↓, Riquelme Fillipi ↑,
- 84', Piquerez J. ↓, Arthur Gabriel ↑,
- 84', 2 - 2, Vitor Roque ⚽,
- 84', Khellven ↓, Giay A. ↑,
- 88', Mauricio ↓, Luighi ↑,
- 88', Igor Gomes ↓, Reinier ↑,
- 88', Alexsander 🟨,
- 88', Vitor Roque 🟨,
- 90+8', Lodi R. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Atlético Mineiro
31.7% | Draw
30.5% | Palmeiras
37.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Atlético Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)Palmeiras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (+3.3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (-2.9%)
Atlético Mineiro - Palmeiras Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.99 ↑
(2.64) |
3.11 ↑
(3.1) |
2.5 ↓
(2.68) |
5.6%
(7.5%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Atlético Mineiro - Palmeiras?
Users Predictions:
8 users predict this event. Atlético MG will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 64.6% – 100%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- O/U 2.25 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético MG won 1.
- Atlético MG has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Palmeiras is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
- Palmeiras may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
- There will not play in Atlético MG: Junior Santos
(Hip Injury)
Lyanco
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
Preciado A.
(Ankle Injury)
- There will not play in Palmeiras: Figueiredo
(Inactive)
Lucas Evangelista
(Hamstring Injury)
Paulinho
(Leg Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Atlético MG won 3 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 16:27. (average 0.8:1.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, Atlético MG won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 8:15. (average 0.8:1.5).
How many head-to-head matches has Atlético Mineiro won against Palmeiras?
Atlético Mineiro has won 1 of their last 9 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Palmeiras won against Atlético Mineiro?
Palmeiras has won 6 of their last 9 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Atlético Mineiro - Palmeiras were as follows:
03.12.2025
Atlético Mineiro
-
Palmeiras
0:3
20.07.2025
Palmeiras
-
Atlético Mineiro
3:2
28.09.2024
Palmeiras
-
Atlético Mineiro
2:1
17.06.2024
Atlético Mineiro
-
Palmeiras
0:4
19.10.2023
Palmeiras
-
Atlético Mineiro
0:2
Latest results of Atlético Mineiro
Latest results of Palmeiras
Brazilian Serie A Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Palmeiras | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 21:10 | 11 | 25 |
| 2 | Fluminense | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 17:11 | 6 | 20 |
| 3 | Sao Paulo | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 15:9 | 6 | 20 |
| 4 | Bahia | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15:10 | 5 | 20 |
| 5 | Athletico-PR | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 17:13 | 4 | 19 |
| 6 | Flamengo RJ | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 16:9 | 7 | 17 |
| 7 | Coritiba | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 11:10 | 1 | 15 |
| 8 | Atletico-MG | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 14:13 | 1 | 14 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 10:10 | 0 | 14 |
| 10 | Vitoria | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 11:14 | -3 | 14 |
| 11 | Gremio | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 14:14 | 0 | 13 |
| 12 | Vasco | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 16:17 | -1 | 13 |
| 13 | Internacional | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 9:10 | -1 | 13 |
| 14 | Santos | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 14:16 | -2 | 13 |
| 15 | Botafogo RJ | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 16:19 | -3 | 12 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8:11 | -3 | 10 |
| 17 | Remo | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 11:18 | -7 | 8 |
| 18 | Chapecoense-SC | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 10:18 | -8 | 8 |
| 19 | Cruzeiro | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 12:20 | -8 | 7 |
| 20 | Mirassol | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11:16 | -5 | 6 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
