Result
1:1
02/05/2026 at 17:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 14
- Referee: Claus R. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Australia | ESPN 2, Foxtel Now, Kayo Sports |
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 1 |
 Brazil | Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 Colombia | Win play |
 Ecuador | Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol |
 Germany | Sportdigital FUSSBALL |
 Israel | Sport 1 |
 Kosovo | Arena Premium 1, Arena Premium 2 |
 Mexico | Azteca Deportes |
 Portugal | Canal 11 |
 Russia | MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru |
 Serbia | Arena Premium 1, Arena Premium 2 |
 Spain | M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 1 |
 Switzerland | Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV |
 United-arab-emirates | Dubai Sports 1 |
 United-kingdom | Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.10 | 1.15 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 54% | 46% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 22 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (387/447) | 83% (324/392) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.10 | 1.15 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.81 | 0.44 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 22 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 13 | 4 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 6 | 6 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 12 | 8 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 10 | 6 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 31 | 17 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 9 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (387/447) | 83% (324/392) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 38% (14/37) | 58% (29/50) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 80% (115/143) | 78% (113/145) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 23% (7/31) | 20% (3/15) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.86 | 0.57 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 27 | 14 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 9 | 4 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 57% (8/14) | 67% (16/24) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 31 | 51 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 17 | 37 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.44 | 1.81 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.56 | 0.81 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 26', 0 - 1, Rollheiser B. ⚽,
- 32', Gabriel Brazao 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Khellven ↓, Allan Elias ↑,
- 60', Lucas Evangelista ↓, Sosa R. ↑,
- 64', 1 - 1, Lopez J. ⚽, Andreas Pereira (A),
- 68', Oliva C. ↓, Willian Arao ↑,
- 74', Mauricio ↓, Paulinho ↑,
- 74', Andreas Pereira ↓, Luis Pacheco ↑,
- 80', Gomez G. ↓, Martinez E. ↑,
- 81', Barreal A. ↓, Moises ↑,
- 81', Gabriel Barbosa ↓, Rony ↑,
- 86', Rollheiser B. ↓, Mateus Xavier ↑,
- 86', Gabriel Bontempo ↓, Ze Rafael ↑,
- 90+9', Luis Pacheco 🟨,
Chances of winning
Palmeiras
60% | Draw
24.4% | Santos
15.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Palmeiras has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)Santos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (+3.2%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santos than the current prediction. (-1.6%)
Palmeiras - Santos Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.58 ↑
(1.52) |
3.9 ↑
(3.7) |
6.1 ↓
(6.3) |
5.3%
(8.5%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Palmeiras - Santos?
Users Predictions:
12 users predict this event. Palmeiras will win (votes: 9 - 75%). Santos will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 8.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Palmeiras: 50.5% – 99.5%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Palmeiras (votes: 1 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- AH -0.25, 1st Half - Palmeiras (1.66) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -0.75 - Palmeiras (1.78) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Palmeiras (votes: 5 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 4.
- Palmeiras has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- In recent matches, Santos has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- Santos may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Palmeiras is the clear favorite.
- There will not play in Palmeiras: Paulinho
(Leg Injury)
Piquerez J.
(Knee Injury)
Vitor Roque
(Ankle Injury)
- There will not play in Santos: Gabriel Menino
(Hamstring Injury)
Vinicius Lira
(Knee Injury)
Ze Rafael
(Ankle Injury)
- We predict that Palmeiras will win today's game, with odds of 1.53.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 14 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 29:14. (average 1.5:0.7).
- Including home matches between the teams, Palmeiras won 11 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 22:9. (average 1.8:0.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Palmeiras won against Santos?
Palmeiras has won 7 of their last 11 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Santos won against Palmeiras?
Santos has won 3 of their last 11 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Palmeiras - Santos were as follows:
14.01.2026
Palmeiras
-
Santos
1:0
15.11.2025
Santos
-
Palmeiras
1:0
06.11.2025
Palmeiras
-
Santos
2:0
22.01.2025
Santos
-
Palmeiras
1:2
07.04.2024
Palmeiras
-
Santos
2:0
Latest results of Palmeiras
Brazilian Serie A Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Palmeiras | 14 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 24:11 | 13 | 33 |
| 2 | Flamengo RJ | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 24:10 | 14 | 26 |
| 3 | Fluminense | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 23:16 | 7 | 26 |
| 4 | Sao Paulo | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 17:11 | 6 | 23 |
| 5 | Athletico-PR | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 20:15 | 5 | 23 |
| 6 | Bahia | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 17:14 | 3 | 21 |
| 7 | Coritiba | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 16:17 | -1 | 19 |
| 8 | Vitoria | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 16:18 | -2 | 18 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 15:15 | 0 | 17 |
| 10 | Botafogo RJ | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 25:26 | -1 | 17 |
| 11 | Atletico-MG | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 17:20 | -3 | 17 |
| 12 | Gremio | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 15:16 | -1 | 17 |
| 13 | Vasco | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 18:19 | -1 | 16 |
| 14 | Cruzeiro | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 18:24 | -6 | 16 |
| 15 | Corinthians | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 9:11 | -2 | 15 |
| 16 | Santos | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 19:22 | -3 | 15 |
| 17 | Internacional | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 12:14 | -2 | 14 |
| 18 | Remo | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 15:24 | -9 | 11 |
| 19 | Mirassol | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 13:18 | -5 | 9 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-SC | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 12:24 | -12 | 8 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B
