Vasco da Gama vs Atlético Mineiro – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Brazilian Serie A Vasco da Gama - Atlético Mineiro
Result
1:1
10/08/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Serie A Betano - Round 19
  • Referee: Lacerda D. (Bra)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
brazilBrazilAmazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globo Internacional TV, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, TV Globo, Vivo Play, Zapping
chinaChinaK-Ball
israelIsraelSport 2
mexicoMexicoFanatiz
portugalPortugalCanal 11
usaUsaFanatiz

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.791.27
Ball Possession
54%46%
Total shots
1517
Shots on target
44
Big Chances
51
Corner Kicks
610
Passes
88% (376/428)81% (286/355)
Yellow Cards
31
Expected Goals (xG)
1.791.27
xG on target (xGOT)
1.610.54
Total shots
1517
Shots on target
44
Shots off target
87
Blocked Shots
36
Shots inside the Box
88
Shots outside the Box
79
Hit the Woodwork
10
Big Chances
51
Corner Kicks
610
Touches in opposition box
1720
Accurate through passes
01
Offsides
02
Free Kicks
910
Passes
88% (376/428)81% (286/355)
Long passes
41% (12/29)52% (30/58)
Passes in final third
70% (62/89)66% (63/95)
Crosses
27% (6/22)32% (6/19)
Expected assists (xA)
0.941.25
Throw-ins
1820
Fouls
109
Tackles
79% (11/14)50% (10/20)
Duels won
4642
Clearances
3221
Interceptions
78
Errors leading to shot
01
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
33
xGOT faced
0.541.61
Goals prevented
-0.460.61

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 1)
  • 1', 0 - 1, Gabriel Menino , Cuello (A),
  • 6', Lucas Freitas 🟨,
  • 18', 1 - 1, Vegetti P. (Pen),
  • 42', Paulo Henrique 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
  • 46', Igor Gomes , Alexsander ,
  • 64', Moreira N. , David ,
  • 67', Alexsander 🟨,
  • 71', Gabriel Menino , Biel ,
  • 71', Cuello , Junior Santos ,
  • 80', Coutinho , Garre B. ,
  • 88', Rony , Bernard ,
  • 88', Gustavo Scarpa , Caio Paulista ,
  • 89', Paulo Henrique , Victor Luis ,
  • 90+4', Vegetti P. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Vasco da Gama
36%
Draw
31.7%
Atlético Mineiro
32.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
41.8% 30.4% 27.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.4% 30% 27.4%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Vasco da Gama has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Vasco da Gama's form might have worsened.
  • Atlético Mineiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (+6.4%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Vasco da Gama, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (-4.9%)
  • Vasco da Gama - Atlético Mineiro Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.64
    (2.26)
    3
    (3.1)
    2.95
    (3.4)
    5.1%
    (6%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
  • What is the prediction for Vasco da Gama - Atlético Mineiro?
  • Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Vasco will win (votes: 2 - 15.4%). Atlético MG will win (votes: 1 - 7.7%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 76.9%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 54%99.8%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet and 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vasco won 2.
    • Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
    • Atlético MG may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
    • There will not play in Vasco: Adson (Broken Leg) GB (Muscle Injury) Lucas Piton (Yellow Cards)
    • There will not play in Atlético MG: Cadu (Knee Injury) Caio Maia (Knee Injury) Patrick Silva (Broken tailbone) Reinier (Inactive)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Vasco won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 24:27. (average 1.2:1.4).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Vasco won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:10. (average 1.5:1).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Vasco da Gama - Atlético Mineiro were as follows:
    04.12.2024 Vasco da Gama - Atlético Mineiro 2:0
    19.10.2024 Vasco da Gama - Atlético Mineiro 1:1
    02.10.2024 Atlético Mineiro - Vasco da Gama 2:1
    21.07.2024 Atlético Mineiro - Vasco da Gama 2:0
    20.08.2023 Vasco da Gama - Atlético Mineiro 1:0
    Latest results of Vasco da Gama
    02.08.2025 Mirassol - Vasco da Gama 3:2
    24.07.2025 Vasco da Gama - Bahia Postponed
    Latest results of Atlético Mineiro
    Brazilian Serie A Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Flamengo RJ21145245:103547
    2Cruzeiro22135435:152044
    3Palmeiras20134328:161243
    4Bahia20106428:22636
    5Botafogo RJ20105530:131735
    6Mirassol2098335:201535
    7Sao Paulo2288626:23332
    8Bragantino22931027:32-530
    9Fluminense2084825:28-328
    10Internacional2176825:29-427
    11Ceara2175919:20-126
    12Corinthians2268823:28-526
    13Gremio2167820:26-625
    14Atletico-MG2066820:24-424
    15Vasco21641130:31-122
    16Santos21641120:31-1122
    17Vitoria22410819:32-1322
    18Juventude21631219:41-2221
    19Fortaleza21361220:34-1415
    20Sport Recife20171214:33-1910

          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
          Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet