Result
2:1 penalties
19/08/2025 at 20:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Copa Libertadores - Play Offs - 1/8-finals
- Referee: Ramirez M. (Arg)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | StarTimes App, Startimes World Football |
 Argentina | Disney+, FOX Sports 2 |
 Asia | beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD |
 Australia | Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3 |
 Belarus | Okko Sport |
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Premium 1 |
 Brazil | Paramount+ |
 Bulgaria | Max Sport 4 |
 Canada | beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol |
 China | ZhiBo8 |
 Colombia | Disney+, ESPN |
 Croatia | Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go |
 Indonesia | Mola TV |
 Israel | Sport 3 |
 Italy | Como TV |
 Kosovo | Arena Premium 1 |
 Malaysia | Mola |
 Mexico | Disney+ |
 New-zealand | beIN Connect |
 Peru | Disney+, ESPN |
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
 Serbia | Arena Premium 1 |
 Slovenia | Arena Sport 1 Premium |
 South-america | ESPN 5 South, ESPN South |
 Spain | LaLiga+ app, LaLiga+ |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz |
 Venezuela | Disney+, ESPN, Inter |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.53 | 1.65 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 54% | 46% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 19 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (300/361) | 81% (246/305) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.53 | 1.65 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.11 | 1.83 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 19 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 3 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 11 | 6 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 23 | 19 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 14 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (300/361) | 81% (246/305) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 46% (22/48) | 47% (22/47) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 77% (69/90) | 69% (56/81) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 20% (3/15) | 13% (2/16) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.15 | 0.47 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 16 | 18 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 14 | 5 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 63% (10/16) | 83% (10/12) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 37 | 41 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 22 | 8 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 4 | 10 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.83 | 1.11 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.83 | 0.11 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 3', 1 - 0, Andre Silva ⚽, Franco A. (A),
- 18', Cardona E. 🟨,
- 18', Soares C. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 50', Zapata J. 🟨,
- 56', Zapata J. ↓, Uribe M. ↑,
- 60', Rodriguinho ↓, Lucas Moura ↑,
- 70', 1 - 1, Morelos A. (Pen),
- 70', Ferraresi N. 🟨,
- 70', Cardona E. 🟨,
- 74', Andre Silva ↓, Ferreira ↑,
- 78', Franco A. 🟨,
- 86', Moreno M. ↓, Bauza J. ↑,
- 88', Franco A. ↓, Henrique Carmo ↑,
- 90+7', Campuzano J. 🟨,
- 90+8', Roman A. 🟨,
- Penalties (4 - 3)
- 1, Uribe M. (Pen),
- 1, Lucas Moura (Pen),
- 2, Campuzano J. (Pen),
- 2, Marcos Antonio (Pen),
- 3, Morelos A. (Pen),
- 3, Luciano (Pen),
- 4, Tesillo W. (Pen),
- 4, Diaz E. (Pen),
- 5, Hinestroza M. (Pen),
- 5, Soares C. (Pen),
Chances of winning
São Paulo
50.6% | Draw
29.2% | Atlético Nacional
20.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)Atlético Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+6.2%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for São Paulo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Nacional than the current prediction. (-2%)
São Paulo - Atlético Nacional Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.86 ↑
(1.69) |
3.23 ↓
(3.5) |
4.69 ↓
(4.9) |
6%
(8.2%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for São Paulo - Atlético Nacional?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. São Paulo (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).
Users Predictions:
São Paulo will win
(16 of 20 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.47% – 97.53%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- 1st leg result: 0-0. 2nd leg.
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 0.
- São Paulo has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Atlético Nacional is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Recently, São Paulo has had a series of away games.
- In this match, São Paulo is a strong favorite.
- There will not play in São Paulo: Jonathan Calleri
(Knee Injury)
Luiz Gustavo
(Contusion)
Oscar
(Back Injury)
Robert Arboleda
(Muscle Injury)
Ryan Francisco
(Knee Injury)
Wendell
(Muscle Injury)
- There will not play in Atlético Nacional: Asprilla D.
(Knee Injury)
Batioja A.
(Thigh Injury)
Batista F.
(Broken nose)
Rosa J.
(Knee Injury)
- In the last 7 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 5:8. (average 0.7:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, São Paulo won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:5. (average 1.3:1.7).
How many head-to-head matches has São Paulo won against Atlético Nacional?
São Paulo has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Atlético Nacional won against São Paulo?
Atlético Nacional has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between São Paulo - Atlético Nacional were as follows:
12.08.2025
Atlético Nacional
-
São Paulo
0:0
Latest results of São Paulo
Latest results of Atlético Nacional
Draw
Play Offs1/8-finals| 1 | Atl. Nacional | Sao Paulo | 1 : 2, 0 : 0 |
| 2 | Botafogo RJ | LDU Quito | 0 : 2, 1 : 0 |
| 3 | Libertad Asuncion | River Plate | 1 : 2, 0 : 0 |
| 4 | U. de Deportes | Palmeiras | 0 : 0, 0 : 4 |
| 5 | Cerro Porteno | Estudiantes L.P. | 0 : 0, 0 : 1 |
| 6 | Flamengo RJ | Internacional | 2 : 0, 1 : 0 |
| 7 | Fortaleza | Velez Sarsfield | 0 : 2, 0 : 0 |
| 8 | Penarol | Racing Club | 1 : 3, 1 : 0 |
Quarter-finals| 1 | Sao Paulo | LDU Quito | 0 : 1, 0 : 2 |
| 2 | River Plate | Palmeiras | 1 : 3, 1 : 2 |
| 3 | Estudiantes L.P. | Flamengo RJ | 1 : 1, 1 : 2 |
| 4 | Velez Sarsfield | Racing Club | 0 : 1, 0 : 1 |
Semi-finals| 1 | LDU Quito | Palmeiras | |
| 2 | Flamengo RJ | Racing Club | |
Final
