São Paulo vs Atlético Nacional – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Copa Libertadores São Paulo - Atlético Nacional
Result
2:1 penalties
19/08/2025 at 20:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Copa Libertadores - Play Offs - 1/8-finals
  • Referee: Ramirez M. (Arg)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
africaAfricaStarTimes App, Startimes World Football
argentinaArgentinaDisney+, FOX Sports 2
asiaAsiabeIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
australiaAustraliaAmazon Prime Video, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
belarusBelarusOkko Sport
bosnia-and-herzegovinaBosnia-and-herzegovinaArena Premium 1
brazilBrazilParamount+
bulgariaBulgariaMax Sport 4
canadaCanadabeIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
chinaChinaZhiBo8
colombiaColombiaDisney+, ESPN
croatiaCroatiaArena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
indonesiaIndonesiaMola TV
israelIsraelSport 3
italyItalyComo TV
kosovoKosovoArena Premium 1
malaysiaMalaysiaMola
mexicoMexicoDisney+
new-zealandNew-zealandbeIN Connect
peruPeruDisney+, ESPN
portugalPortugalSport TV1
serbiaSerbiaArena Premium 1
sloveniaSloveniaArena Sport 1 Premium
south-americaSouth-americaESPN 5 South, ESPN South
spainSpainLaLiga+ app, LaLiga+
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsabeIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+, ESPN, Inter

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.531.65
Ball Possession
54%46%
Total shots
1910
Shots on target
74
Big Chances
52
Corner Kicks
45
Passes
83% (300/361)81% (246/305)
Yellow Cards
35
Red Cards
01
Expected Goals (xG)
1.531.65
xG on target (xGOT)
1.111.83
Total shots
1910
Shots on target
74
Shots off target
83
Blocked Shots
43
Shots inside the Box
116
Shots outside the Box
84
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
10
Big Chances
52
Corner Kicks
45
Touches in opposition box
2319
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
02
Free Kicks
514
Passes
83% (300/361)81% (246/305)
Long passes
46% (22/48)47% (22/47)
Passes in final third
77% (69/90)69% (56/81)
Crosses
20% (3/15)13% (2/16)
Expected assists (xA)
1.150.47
Throw-ins
1618
Fouls
145
Tackles
63% (10/16)83% (10/12)
Duels won
3741
Clearances
228
Interceptions
410
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
36
xGOT faced
1.831.11
Goals prevented
0.830.11

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 3', 1 - 0, Andre Silva , Franco A. (A),
  • 18', Cardona E. 🟨,
  • 18', Soares C. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 1)
  • 50', Zapata J. 🟨,
  • 56', Zapata J. , Uribe M. ,
  • 60', Rodriguinho , Lucas Moura ,
  • 70', 1 - 1, Morelos A. (Pen),
  • 70', Ferraresi N. 🟨,
  • 70', Cardona E. 🟨,
  • 74', Andre Silva , Ferreira ,
  • 78', Franco A. 🟨,
  • 86', Moreno M. , Bauza J. ,
  • 88', Franco A. , Henrique Carmo ,
  • 90+7', Campuzano J. 🟨,
  • 90+8', Roman A. 🟨,
  • Penalties (4 - 3)
  • 1, Uribe M. (Pen),
  • 1, Lucas Moura (Pen),
  • 2, Campuzano J. (Pen),
  • 2, Marcos Antonio (Pen),
  • 3, Morelos A. (Pen),
  • 3, Luciano (Pen),
  • 4, Tesillo W. (Pen),
  • 4, Diaz E. (Pen),
  • 5, Hinestroza M. (Pen),
  • 5, Soares C. (Pen),

Highlights

Chances of winning


São Paulo
50.6%
Draw
29.2%
Atlético Nacional
20.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
54.7% 26.4% 18.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.8% 27.4% 18.2%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)
  • Atlético Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+6.2%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for São Paulo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Nacional than the current prediction. (-2%)
  • São Paulo - Atlético Nacional Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.86
    (1.69)
    3.23
    (3.5)
    4.69
    (4.9)
    6%
    (8.2%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
  • What is the prediction for São Paulo - Atlético Nacional?
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. São Paulo (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).
  • Users Predictions: São Paulo will win (16 of 20 users predict this - 80%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 62.47%97.53%.
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • 1st leg result: 0-0. 2nd leg.
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 0.
    • São Paulo has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).
    • Atlético Nacional is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
    • Recently, São Paulo has had a series of away games.
    • In this match, São Paulo is a strong favorite.
    • There will not play in São Paulo: Jonathan Calleri (Knee Injury) Luiz Gustavo (Contusion) Oscar (Back Injury) Robert Arboleda (Muscle Injury) Ryan Francisco (Knee Injury) Wendell (Muscle Injury)
    • There will not play in Atlético Nacional: Asprilla D. (Knee Injury) Batioja A. (Thigh Injury) Batista F. (Broken nose) Rosa J. (Knee Injury)
    • In the last 7 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 5:8. (average 0.7:1.1).
    • Including home matches between the teams, São Paulo won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:5. (average 1.3:1.7).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between São Paulo - Atlético Nacional were as follows:
    12.08.2025 Atlético Nacional - São Paulo 0:0
    Latest results of São Paulo
    Latest results of Atlético Nacional
    Draw
    Play Offs

    1/8-finals
    1Atl. NacionalSao Paulo1 : 2, 0 : 0
    2Botafogo RJLDU Quito0 : 2, 1 : 0
    3Libertad AsuncionRiver Plate1 : 2, 0 : 0
    4U. de DeportesPalmeiras0 : 0, 0 : 4
    5FortalezaVelez Sarsfield0 : 2, 0 : 0
    6PenarolRacing Club1 : 3, 1 : 0
    7Cerro PortenoEstudiantes L.P.0 : 0, 0 : 1
    8Flamengo RJInternacional2 : 0, 1 : 0

    Quarter-finals
    1Sao PauloLDU Quito
    2River PlatePalmeiras
    3Velez SarsfieldRacing Club
    4Estudiantes L.P.Flamengo RJ