Auxerre vs Toulouse – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football French Ligue 1 Auxerre - Toulouse
Result
1:0
21/09/2025 at 11:15 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Ligue 1 - Round 5
  • Referee: Bollengier M. (Fra)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
argentinaArgentinaDisney+
asiaAsiabeIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD
austriaAustriaDAZN
bosnia-and-herzegovinaBosnia-and-herzegovinaArena Sport 2
canadaCanadabeIN Connect, beIN Sports XTRA Espanol
chileChileDisney+
chinaChinaMigu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
colombiaColombiaDisney+
croatiaCroatiaArena Sport 3, Arena Sport 9, MAXtv To Go
cyprusCyprusCablenet Sports 1, Cablenet Sports 1
czech-republicCzech-republicNova Sport 5, Oneplay
denmarkDenmarkViaplay
finlandFinlandViaplay, V Sport Fotbool
franceFranceAmazon Prime Video, DAZN France, Ligue 1+ 5, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
germanyGermanyAmazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
hong-kongHong-kongbeIN SPORTS MAX
japanJapanDAZN Japan
mexicoMexicoAmazon Prime Video, Caliente TV
netherlandsNetherlandsViaplay
north-central-americaNorth-central-americaDisney+ Caribbean
north-macedoniaNorth-macedoniaMaxTV GO
norwayNorwayViaplay
peruPeruDisney+
russiaRussiaOkko Sport
serbiaSerbiaArena Sport 2
slovakiaSlovakiaVoyo
south-koreaSouth-koreaCoupang Play
swedenSwedenViaplay, V Sport Fotbool
switzerlandSwitzerlandDAZN Switzerland
turkeyTurkeybeIN Connect, beIN Sports 2 MAX
ukraineUkraineMEGOGO Futbol 6, MEGOGO Ukraine
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomLigue 1 Pass
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsabeIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Fanatiz, Tubi TV
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.721.85
Ball Possession
40%60%
Total shots
613
Shots on target
13
Big Chances
11
Corner Kicks
34
Passes
77% (232/302)87% (391/450)
Yellow Cards
16
Red Cards
10
Expected Goals (xG)
0.721.85
xG on target (xGOT)
0.361.00
Total shots
613
Shots on target
13
Shots off target
36
Blocked Shots
24
Shots inside the Box
512
Shots outside the Box
11
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
11
Corner Kicks
34
Touches in opposition box
1630
Accurate through passes
01
Offsides
00
Free Kicks
2012
Passes
77% (232/302)87% (391/450)
Long passes
42% (28/66)49% (19/39)
Passes in final third
61% (58/95)69% (77/112)
Crosses
23% (3/13)32% (6/19)
Expected assists (xA)
0.351.46
Throw-ins
2112
Fouls
1220
Tackles
46% (12/26)54% (13/24)
Duels won
6953
Clearances
3026
Interceptions
75
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
30
xGOT faced
1.000.36
Goals prevented
1.00-0.64

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 3', Magri F. (Pen),
  • 35', Mensah G. 🟨,
  • 45+2', 1 - 0, Danny Namaso , Sinayoko L. (A),
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
  • 50', Methalie D. 🟨,
  • 56', Methalie D. , Kamanzi W. ,
  • 56', Edjouma N. , Emersonn ,
  • 63', Restes G. 🟨,
  • 64', Oppegard F. 🟥,
  • 65', Mara S. , Akpa C. ,
  • 70', Nicolaisen R. , Sidibe D. ,
  • 70', Francis A. , Sauer M. ,
  • 82', McKenzie M. 🟨,
  • 82', Gboho Y. , Hidalgo S. ,
  • 83', Sidibe D. 🟨,
  • 85', Sinayoko L. , Diousse A. ,
  • 90+4', Casseres C. 🟨,
  • 90+4', Hidalgo S. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Auxerre
29%
Draw
29.8%
Toulouse
41.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
35.4% 28.3% 36.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.2% 28.9% 35.5%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Auxerre has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Auxerre's form might have worsened.
  • Toulouse has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Auxerre than the current prediction. (+7.2%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Auxerre, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toulouse than the current prediction. (-5.8%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Toulouse, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • Auxerre - Toulouse Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    3.3
    (2.68)
    3.21
    (3.37)
    2.35
    (2.62)
    3.9%
    (5.1%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
  • What is the prediction for Auxerre - Toulouse?
  • Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Auxerre will win (votes: 5 - 22.7%). Toulouse will win (votes: 11 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 27.3%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Toulouse: 29.1%70.9%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Auxerre (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Auxerre won 0.
    • Recent form of Auxerre has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).
    • Toulouse's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
    • Auxerre may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
    • There will not play in Auxerre: Buayi-Kiala N. (Knee Injury) Casimir J. (Red Card) Diomande S. (Thigh Injury) El Azzouzi O. (Neck Injury)
    • There will not play in Toulouse: Azizi I. (Knee Injury) Messali R. (Injury) Schmidt N. (Knee Injury) Vossah A. (Red Card)
    • There are questionable in Auxerre: Akpa C. (Groin Injury)
    • In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Auxerre won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 11:28. (average 1:2.5).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Auxerre won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:10. (average 1.5:2.5).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Auxerre - Toulouse were as follows:
    09.02.2025 Auxerre - Toulouse 2:2
    01.12.2024 Toulouse - Auxerre 2:0
    27.05.2023 Toulouse - Auxerre 1:1
    11.01.2023 Auxerre - Toulouse 0:5
    Latest results of Auxerre
    13.09.2025 Auxerre - Monaco 1:2
    30.08.2025 Nantes - Auxerre 1:0
    23.08.2025 Nice - Auxerre 3:1
    17.08.2025 Auxerre - Lorient 1:0
    09.08.2025 Auxerre - Levante 0:2
    Latest results of Toulouse
    14.09.2025 Lille - Toulouse 2:1
    24.08.2025 Toulouse - Brest 2:0
    16.08.2025 Nice - Toulouse 0:1
    10.08.2025 Toulouse - Sevilla 1:1
    French Ligue 1 Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1PSG650112:4815
    2Lyon65018:3515
    3Marseille640212:5712
    4Monaco640214:10412
    5Strasbourg64029:7212
    6Lille631213:9410
    7Lens63128:5310
    8Paris FC731312:13-110
    9Rennes62317:8-19
    10Brest621311:1107
    11Toulouse62139:11-27
    12Nice62137:10-37
    13Lorient72149:16-77
    14Auxerre62044:8-46
    15Le Havre61236:8-25
    16Nantes61235:7-25
    17Angers61233:6-35
    18Metz60245:13-82

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