Result
3:1
09/02/2026 at 13:45 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 21
- Referee: Filipe L. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | ZAP |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Greece | COSMOTE Sport 9 |
 Israel | Sport 1 |
 Portugal | Sport TV7 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.18 | 0.44 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 66% | 34% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (432/502) | 73% (190/261) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.18 | 0.44 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.92 | 0.63 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 10 | 3 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 29 | 11 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 14 | 9 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (432/502) | 73% (190/261) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 61% (28/46) | 23% (11/48) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 82% (129/157) | 50% (28/56) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 14% (4/29) | 0% (0/12) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.52 | 0.32 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 24 | 20 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 9 | 14 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 79% (11/14) | 80% (12/15) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 49 | 46 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 29 | 33 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 10 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.63 | 1.92 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.37 | -1.08 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 4', Garcia 🟨,
- 25', De Haas J. 🟨,
- 29', Paulo Vitor ↓, Ponck ↑,
- 45+2', Pedro Bondo 🟨,
- 2nd Half (3 - 1)
- 46', Pedro Bondo ↓, Joujou A. ↑,
- 48', Mateus Pivo 🟨,
- 50', 0 - 1, Duarte D. ⚽, Tomane (A),
- 54', 1 - 1, De Haas J. ⚽, Joujou A. (A),
- 63', 2 - 1, Joujou A. ⚽, Santos P. (A),
- 67', 3 - 1, Abubakar U. ⚽, Santos P. (A),
- 70', Tomane ↓, Nene ↑,
- 70', Duarte D. ↓, Perea O. ↑,
- 74', Sa G. ↓, Pena M. ↑,
- 74', Abubakar U. ↓, Elisor S. ↑,
- 76', Rivas L. ↓, Neiva G. ↑,
- 76', Mendonca G. ↓, Algobia A. ↑,
- 81', Santos P. ↓, Pastor G. ↑,
- 90+1', Sorriso ↓, Almeida R. ↑,
- 90+4', Pedro Lima 🟨,
Chances of winning
Famalicão
64.5% | Draw
21.3% | AVS
14.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Famalicão has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)AVS has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Famalicão than the current prediction. (-15.3%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Famalicão that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for AVS than the current prediction. (+1.6%)
Famalicão - AVS Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.46 ↑
(1.41) |
4.43 ↑
(4.41) |
6.64 ↓
(8.12) |
6.1%
(5.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Famalicão - AVS?
Users Predictions:
26 users predict this event. Famalicão will win (votes: 25 - 96.2%). AVS will win (votes: 1 - 3.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Famalicão: 88.9% – 100%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .
- AH -1 - Famalicão (1.76) (votes: 1 - 50%) .
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Famalicão will win (13 of 13 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 15 high ROI users predict this event. Famalicão (votes: 14 - 93.3%). AVS (votes: 1 - 6.7%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 8 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2).
- In recent matches, Famalicão has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- AVS has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- Famalicão may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Famalicão is the undisputed favorite.
- There will not play in Famalicão: Aranda O.
(Knee Injury)
De Amorim M.
(Red Card)
- There will not play in AVS: Molina G.
(Leg Injury)
- There are questionable in Famalicão: Rochinha
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in AVS: Baroan A.
(Injury)
- In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Famalicão won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:3. (average 2.7:1).
- Including home match between the teams, Famalicão won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1.
How many head-to-head matches has Famalicão won against AVS?
Famalicão has won 3 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has AVS won against Famalicão?
AVS has won 0 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Famalicão - AVS were as follows:
30.08.2025
AVS
-
Famalicão
0:1
30.03.2025
Famalicão
-
AVS
4:1
03.11.2024
AVS
-
Famalicão
2:3
Latest results of Famalicão
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 24 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 47:8 | 39 | 65 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 24 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 62:12 | 50 | 61 |
| 3 | Benfica | 24 | 17 | 7 | 0 | 51:14 | 37 | 58 |
| 4 | Braga | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 50:23 | 27 | 45 |
| 5 | Gil Vicente | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 35:23 | 12 | 40 |
| 6 | Famalicao | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 29:21 | 8 | 36 |
| 7 | Moreirense | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 30:34 | -4 | 34 |
| 8 | Estoril | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 46:42 | 4 | 33 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 28:35 | -7 | 32 |
| 10 | Alverca | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 24:39 | -15 | 27 |
| 11 | Arouca | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 32:52 | -20 | 26 |
| 12 | Estrela | 24 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 26:41 | -15 | 24 |
| 13 | Casa Pia | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 26:44 | -18 | 23 |
| 14 | Nacional | 24 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 28:36 | -8 | 21 |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 24 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 23:44 | -21 | 21 |
| 16 | Santa Clara | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 20:31 | -11 | 19 |
| 17 | Tondela | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 19:38 | -19 | 19 |
| 18 | AFS | 24 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 18:57 | -39 | 9 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
