Result
3:1
10/08/2025 at 10:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Super League - Round 3
- Referee: Turkes M. (Sui)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Albania | SuperSport 4 |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Kosovo | Arena Premium 4 |
 Serbia | Arena Premium 4 |
 Switzerland | Blue Sport 1 UHD, Blue Sport 1 UHD, Blue Sport D1, Blue Sport D1 |
 Ukraine | Sport 1, Sport 3 |
 World | Sport 1 Baltic |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 3.41 | 2.00 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 50% | 50% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 89% (399/450) | 89% (387/436) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 3.41 | 2.00 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 3.81 | 1.70 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 10 | 8 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 19 | 25 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 89% (399/450) | 89% (387/436) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 67% (37/55) | 59% (13/22) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 75% (77/103) | 76% (89/117) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 45% (5/11) | 24% (5/21) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.83 | 1.59 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 10 | 11 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 12 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 70% (7/10) | 50% (4/8) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 34 | 32 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 26 | 12 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.70 | 3.81 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.70 | 0.81 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 0)
- 11', 1 - 0, Grgic A. (Pen),
- 29', Kade A. 🟨,
- 31', 2 - 0, Papadopoulos A. ⚽, Steffen R. (A),
- 39', Metinho 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 46', Tsunemoto K. ↓, Soticek M. ↑,
- 46', Kevin ↓, Ajeti Al. ↑,
- 46', Barisic A. ↓, Vouilloz N. ↑,
- 55', Grgic A. 🟨,
- 56', Mahou H. ↓, Belhadj M. ↑,
- 63', 2 - 1, Ajeti Al. ⚽, Otele P. (A),
- 64', Marques M. ↓, Alioski E. ↑,
- 65', Behrens K. ↓, Koutsias G. ↑,
- 67', Metinho ↓, Koindredi K. ↑,
- 79', Mai L. ↓, El Wafi A. ↑,
- 80', Steffen R. ↓, Pihlstrom E. ↑,
- 82', Leroy L. ↓, Kaio Eduardo ↑,
- 87', Koutsias G. 🟨,
- 90+4', Shaqiri X. 🟨,
- 90+6', 3 - 1, Koutsias G. ⚽, Dos Santos D. (A),
Chances of winning
Lugano
35.1% | Draw
26.4% | Basel
38.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Lugano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.8%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lugano's performance.Basel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.8%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Basel might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lugano than the current prediction. (-10.5%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lugano that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Basel than the current prediction. (+14.3%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Basel could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Lugano - Basel Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.13 ↓
(3.71) |
4.27 ↑
(3.98) |
3.07 ↑
(1.83) |
-12%
(6.6%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
What is the prediction for Lugano - Basel?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH +1.5 - Basel (votes: 3 - 100%).
- AH +1 - Basel (votes: 3 - 100%).
- AH +2 - Basel (votes: 3 - 100%).
Users Predictions:
Basel will win
(53 of 54 users predict this - 98.15%).
Confidence interval (95%): 94.56% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Basel will win (15 of 16 users predict this - 93.75%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lugano won 2.
- Lugano is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Basel has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Basel may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Recently, Basel has had a series of home games.
- Basel might have a minor edge in this game.
- There will not play in Lugano: Kendouci A.
(Broken Leg)
Marques M.
(Injury)
- There will not play in Basel: Ruegg K.
(Ankle Injury)
van Breemen F.
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Lugano: Zanotti M.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Basel: Onyegbule A.
(Knee Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lugano won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 26:32. (average 1.3:1.6).
- Including home matches between the teams, Lugano won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 14:18. (average 1.4:1.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Lugano won against Basel?
Lugano has won 5 of their last 11 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Basel won against Lugano?
Basel has won 3 of their last 11 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Lugano - Basel were as follows:
10.05.2025
Lugano
-
Basel
2:5
06.04.2025
Basel
-
Lugano
2:0
19.01.2025
Lugano
-
Basel
2:2
27.07.2024
Basel
-
Lugano
1:2
02.04.2024
Lugano
-
Basel
2:0
Swiss Super League Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | St. Gallen | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11:2 | 9 | 9 |
| 2 | Thun | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6:3 | 3 | 9 |
| 3 | Sion | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7:2 | 5 | 7 |
| 4 | Basel | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8:7 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Young Boys | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5:6 | -1 | 5 |
| 6 | Zurich | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5:5 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | Luzern | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5:5 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | Lausanne | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:6 | -1 | 3 |
| 9 | Lugano | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:7 | -3 | 3 |
| 10 | Grasshoppers | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4:6 | -2 | 1 |
| 11 | Servette | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3:8 | -5 | 1 |
| 12 | Winterthur | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3:9 | -6 | 1 |
Promotion ~ Super League (Championship Group: )
Super League (Relegation Group: )
