Result
1:1
15/02/2026 at 10:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Super League - Round 25
- Referee: San F. (Sui)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Switzerland | Blue Sport 1 UHD, Blue Sport 1 UHD, Blue Sport D1, Blue Sport D1 |
 Ukraine | Sport 2 |
 World | Sport 2 Baltic |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.55 | 0.57 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 44% | 56% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (334/397) | 90% (456/505) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.55 | 0.57 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.37 | 0.37 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 7 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 3 | 11 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 19 | 13 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 15 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (334/397) | 90% (456/505) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 48% (19/40) | 76% (34/45) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 68% (71/104) | 82% (92/112) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 15% (3/20) | 17% (3/18) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.31 | 0.41 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 18 | 11 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 15 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 44% (4/9) | 50% (4/8) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 38 | 24 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 20 | 25 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 14 | 14 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.37 | 1.37 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.63 | 0.37 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 15', Behrens K. ↓, Koutsias G. ↑,
- 30', 1 - 0, Traore B. (Penalty Awarded),
- 37', Salah I. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 46', Mai L. ↓, Joao Carbone ↑,
- 48', Schmid D. 🟨,
- 56', Kelvin D. 🟨,
- 62', Shaqiri X. (Penalty Awarded),
- 63', Steffen R. ↓, Mahou H. ↑,
- 64', 1 - 1, Koutsias G. ⚽, Dos Santos D. (A),
- 65', Belhadj M. ↓, Dos Santos D. ↑,
- 66', Ruegg K. ↓, Tsunemoto K. ↑,
- 66', Ajeti Al. ↓, Koloto G. ↑,
- 66', Traore B. ↓, Soticek M. ↑,
- 72', Cimignani Y. 🟨,
- 84', Cimignani Y. ↓, Brault-Guillard Z. ↑,
- 88', Salah I. ↓, Duranville J. ↑,
- 88', Schmid D. ↓, Cisse M. ↑,
- 90+2', Papadopoulos A. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Basel
39% | Draw
26.2% | Lugano
34.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Basel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.3%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Basel's form might have worsened.Lugano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.2%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Lugano's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Basel than the current prediction. (+9.2%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Basel, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lugano than the current prediction. (-7.6%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Lugano, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Basel - Lugano Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.42 ↑
(1.87) |
3.58 ↓
(3.83) |
2.7 ↓
(3.47) |
6.5%
(8.3%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Basel - Lugano?
Users Predictions:
10 users predict this event. Basel will win (votes: 5 - 50%). Lugano will win (votes: 2 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Basel: 19% – 81%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Basel (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Lugano (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- AH +0.25 - Basel (1.46) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- AH 0 - Basel (1.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -1.5 - Lugano (1.16) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Basel (votes: 3 - 50%). Lugano (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Super League (Championship Group: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Super League (Championship Group: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Basel won 2.
- Basel is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Lugano is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Lugano may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Basel could have a small edge in this match.
- There will not play in Basel: Kaio Eduardo
(Injury)
Metinho
(Knee Injury)
van Breemen F.
(Injury)
- There will not play in Lugano: Alioski E.
(Inactive)
Cassano C.
(Inactive)
Delcroix H.
(Injury)
Marques M.
(Injury)
Mina D.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Basel: Daniliuc F.
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Basel won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 30:26. (average 1.5:1.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Basel won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 12:11. (average 1.2:1.1).
How many head-to-head matches has Basel won against Lugano?
Basel has won 3 of their last 13 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Lugano won against Basel?
Lugano has won 7 of their last 13 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Basel - Lugano were as follows:
09.11.2025
Basel
-
Lugano
0:1
10.08.2025
Lugano
-
Basel
3:1
10.05.2025
Lugano
-
Basel
2:5
06.04.2025
Basel
-
Lugano
2:0
19.01.2025
Lugano
-
Basel
2:2
Swiss Super League Table
Main | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Thun ✔ | 32 | 23 | 2 | 7 | 72:36 | 36 | 71 |
| 2 | St. Gallen ✔ | 32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 62:38 | 24 | 59 |
| 3 | Lugano ✔ | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 49:38 | 11 | 54 |
| 4 | Basel ✔ | 32 | 15 | 8 | 9 | 50:42 | 8 | 53 |
| 5 | Sion ✔ | 32 | 12 | 13 | 7 | 48:35 | 13 | 49 |
| 6 | Young Boys ✔ | 32 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 64:59 | 5 | 47 |
| 7 | Luzern ✔ | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 62:59 | 3 | 39 |
| 8 | Servette ✔ | 32 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 56:56 | 0 | 39 |
| 9 | Lausanne ✔ | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 47:54 | -7 | 39 |
| 10 | Zurich ✔ | 32 | 10 | 4 | 18 | 45:62 | -17 | 34 |
| 11 | Grasshoppers ✔ | 32 | 5 | 9 | 18 | 38:65 | -27 | 24 |
| 12 | Winterthur ✔ | 32 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 35:84 | -49 | 19 |
Promotion ~ Super League (Championship Group: )
Super League (Relegation Group: )
Clinched Spots for Teams
Thun is Qualified for Super League (Championship Group )
St. Gallen is Qualified for Super League (Championship Group )
Lugano is Qualified for Super League (Championship Group )
Basel is Qualified for Super League (Championship Group )
Sion is Qualified for Super League (Championship Group )
Young Boys is Qualified for Super League (Championship Group )
Luzern is Super League (Relegation Group )
Servette is Super League (Relegation Group )
Lausanne is Super League (Relegation Group )
Zurich is Super League (Relegation Group )
Grasshoppers is Super League (Relegation Group )
Winterthur is Super League (Relegation Group )
