Bayern Munich vs Mainz – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Result
2:2
14/12/2025 at 11:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • Bundesliga - Round 14
  • Referee: Braun R. (Ger)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
africaAfricaAzam Sports 2, CANAL+ Sport 1, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football, ZAP
albaniaAlbaniaTring Sport 2
angolaAngolaZ Sports 2
argentinaArgentinaDisney+, ESPN 3
armeniaArmeniaSetanta Sports 1
australiaAustraliabeIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
austriaAustriaDAZN, Sky Go Austria
azerbaijanAzerbaijanSetanta Sports 1
belgiumBelgiumPlay Sports 1
brazilBrazilRedeTV!, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
bulgariaBulgariaDiema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
canadaCanadaDAZN Canada, OneSoccer
chileChileESPN Premium
colombiaColombiaESPN
czech-republicCzech-republicNova Sport 3, Oneplay
denmarkDenmarkTV3 Sport, Viaplay
europeEuropeGo3 Sport 2 Baltic, Setanta Sports 1 Baltic
finlandFinlandVeikkaus TV, Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay
franceFrancebeIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Free
georgiaGeorgiaSetanta Sports 1, Setanta Sports 2
germanyGermanyDAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, Sky Go Germany
greeceGreeceNova Sports Start
hong-kongHong-kongbeIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live, Now Player
hungaryHungaryMatch 4
icelandIcelandViaplay
israelIsraelSport 4
italyItalyNOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport Arena
japanJapanDAZN Japan
kosovoKosovoArena Premium 3
kyrgyzstanKyrgyzstanSetanta Sports 1
laosLaosbeIN Connect
malaysiaMalaysiabeIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX, Sooka
maltaMaltaGO TV, TSN Malta 6
mexicoMexicoSky Sport
moldovaMoldovaSetanta Sports 1
mongoliaMongoliaPremier Sports 4
netherlandsNetherlandsViaplay
new-zealandNew-zealandbeIN Connect
north-central-americaNorth-central-americaSky Sports Norte
norwayNorwayViaplay, V Sport 2
pakistanPakistanTapmad
papua-new-guineaPapua-new-guineaTVWan Sports
peruPeruDisney+
philippinesPhilippinesbeIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
polandPolandEleven Sports 1
portugalPortugalDAZN 1, DAZN / App
romaniaRomaniaDigi Online, Digi Sport 4, Prima Sport 5
russiaRussiaOkko Sport
saudi-arabiaSaudi-arabiaShahid
serbiaSerbiaArena Premium 3
singaporeSingaporebeIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
slovakiaSlovakiaVoyo
sloveniaSloveniaSport TV1
south-americaSouth-americaESPN 2 South
south-koreaSouth-koreaCoupang Play
spainSpainDAZN Espana
swedenSwedenViaplay, V Sport 1
switzerlandSwitzerlandDAZN Switzerland
tajikistanTajikistanSetanta Sports 1
thailandThailandbeIN Connect
turkeyTurkeyS Sport+, Tivibu Spor 4
turkmenistanTurkmenistanSetanta Sports 1
ukraineUkraineKyivstar TV, Setanta Sports+
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomAmazon Prime Video
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaESPN App, ESPN+
uzbekistanUzbekistanSetanta Sports 1
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+, ESPN, Inter
vietnamVietnamTV 360
worldWorldOnefootball

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
4.230.60
Ball Possession
85%15%
Total shots
245
Shots on target
112
Big Chances
82
Corner Kicks
70
Passes
91% (885/970)59% (104/176)
Yellow Cards
22
Expected Goals (xG)
4.230.60
xG on target (xGOT)
2.941.50
Total shots
245
Shots on target
112
Shots off target
73
Blocked Shots
60
Shots inside the Box
203
Shots outside the Box
42
Hit the Woodwork
01
Headed Goals
02
Big Chances
82
Corner Kicks
70
Touches in opposition box
538
Accurate through passes
30
Offsides
61
Free Kicks
87
Passes
91% (885/970)59% (104/176)
Long passes
62% (28/45)41% (24/59)
Passes in final third
83% (275/330)42% (20/48)
Crosses
30% (8/27)40% (2/5)
Expected assists (xA)
3.330.61
Throw-ins
2910
Fouls
78
Tackles
71% (5/7)56% (10/18)
Duels won
4442
Clearances
1249
Interceptions
416
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
08
xGOT faced
1.502.94
Goals prevented
-0.500.94

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 1)
  • 29', 1 - 0, Karl L. , Gnabry S. (A),
  • 45+2', 1 - 1, Potulski K. , Boving W. (A),
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 50', da Costa D. 🟨,
  • 61', Ito H. , Davies A. ,
  • 61', Bischof T. , Laimer K. ,
  • 61', Goretzka L. , Pavlovic A. ,
  • 62', Kawasaki S. , Nordin A. ,
  • 67', 1 - 2, Lee Jae-Sung , Bell S. (A),
  • 73', Kim Min-Jae , Jackson N. ,
  • 77', Laimer K. 🟨,
  • 78', Hollerbach B. , Weiper N. ,
  • 83', Davies A. 🟨,
  • 85', Potulski K. 🟨,
  • 87', 2 - 2, Kane H. (Penalty Awarded),

Chances of winning


Bayern Munich
86.3%
Draw
8.9%
Mainz
4.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
84.6% 9.6% 5.7%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Bayern Munich has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)
  • Mainz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)
  • Bayern Munich - Mainz Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.11
    (1.12)
    10.69
    (9.82)
    19.79
    (16.48)
    4.2%
    (5.5%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 4.00
    What is the prediction for Bayern Munich - Mainz?
  • Users Predictions: 45 users predict this event. Bayern will win (votes: 38 - 84.4%). Mainz will win (votes: 3 - 6.7%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 8.9%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Bayern: 73.8%95%.
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • O/U 4 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -2.75 - Mainz (2.03) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -5.5 - Bayern (6.94) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -2.5 - Bayern (1.74) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -1, 1st Half - Bayern (1.63) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Bayern Munich will win (14 of 15 users predict this - 93.33%) 🥇 Gold Tip.
  • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 19 Selected Experts predict this event. Bayern (votes: 17 - 89.5%). Mainz (votes: 1 - 5.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 5.3%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 3:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bayern won 4.
    • Bayern is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).
    • Mainz has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
    • Bayern may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • In this match, Bayern is the undisputed favorite.
    • There will not play in Bayern: Diaz L. (Yellow Cards) Musiala J. (Broken calfbone)
    • There will not play in Mainz: Caci A. (Thigh Injury) Dal M. (Knee Injury) Kohr D. (Red Card) Mwene P. (Inactive) Nebel P. (Red Card) Zentner R. (Groin Injury)
    • There are questionable in Mainz: Amiri N. (Inactive) Widmer S. (Calf Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Bayern won 15 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 66:23. (average 3.3:1.2).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Bayern won 9 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 44:10. (average 4.4:1).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Bayern Munich - Mainz were as follows:
    26.04.2025 Bayern Munich - Mainz 3:0
    14.12.2024 Mainz - Bayern Munich 2:1
    30.10.2024 Mainz - Bayern Munich 0:4
    09.03.2024 Bayern Munich - Mainz 8:1
    21.10.2023 Mainz - Bayern Munich 1:3
    Latest results of Bayern Munich
    Latest results of Mainz
    11.12.2025 Lech Poznań - Mainz 1:1
    30.11.2025 Freiburg - Mainz 4:0
    21.11.2025 Mainz - Hoffenheim 1:1
    German Bundesliga Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Bayern Munich ✔ 292441105:277876
    2Dortmund29197360:293164
    3Stuttgart29175760:382256
    4RB Leipzig29175756:362056
    5Bayer Leverkusen29157759:392052
    6Hoffenheim29156857:431451
    7Eintracht Frankfurt29119954:54042
    8Freiburg291171142:47-540
    9Mainz29891235:44-933
    10Augsburg29961436:53-1733
    11Union Berlin29881333:50-1732
    12Hamburger SV297101232:45-1331
    13FC Koln29791343:50-730
    14B. Monchengladbach29791335:49-1430
    15Werder Bremen29771532:52-2028
    16St. Pauli29671625:50-2525
    17Wolfsburg29561839:65-2621
    18Heidenheim29471832:64-3219

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Bundesliga (Relegation)
          Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga

    Clinched Spots for Teams
    Bayern Munich is Qualified for Champions League (League phase )