Borussia Dortmund vs Athletic Bilbao – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football UEFA Champions League
Result
4:1
01/10/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Champions League - League phase - Round 2
  • Referee: Marciniak S. (Pol)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
africaAfricaDStv Now, Supersport Action, SuperSport OTT 3, SuperSport Variety 2
argentinaArgentinaDisney+
armeniaArmeniaFast Sports
asiaAsiabeIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
australiaAustraliaStan Sport
austriaAustriaSky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 3
belgiumBelgiumPickx+ Sports 8, Pickx+ Sports 8
bosnia-and-herzegovinaBosnia-and-herzegovinaArena Sport 3
brazilBrazilHBO Max
canadaCanadaAmazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
chinaChinaiQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
croatiaCroatiaArena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
cyprusCyprusCablenet Sports 1, Cablenet Sports 1, Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 7, Cytavision Sports 7
czech-republicCzech-republicNova Sport 3, Oneplay
denmarkDenmarkViaplay
europeEuropeGo3 Extra Sports Baltic
finlandFinlandMTV Katsomo+
franceFranceCanal+ Live 5
germanyGermanyAmazon Prime Video, DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, WOW
greeceGreeceCOSMOTE Sport 9
hong-kongHong-kongbeIN SPORTS MAX
hungaryHungaryRTL+
icelandIcelandSÝN Sport 4
indiaIndiaJioTV app, Sony LIV
indonesiaIndonesiabeIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, Vidio
italyItalyNOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 256
kenyaKenyaGotv
laosLaosbeIN Connect
malaysiaMalaysiabeIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
maltaMaltaTSN Malta 5
mexicoMexicoAmazon Prime Video, Caliente TV
new-zealandNew-zealandDAZN New Zealand
nigeriaNigeriaSuperSport Action, SuperSport OTT 3
north-central-americaNorth-central-americaFlow Sports 1 Caribbean
norwayNorwayTV2 Play, TV2 Sport 1
pakistanPakistanTapmad
peruPeruDisney+, Fox Sports 3
philippinesPhilippinesbeIN SPORTS MAX
polandPolandCANAL+ 360
portugalPortugalDAZN 4, DAZN / App
romaniaRomaniaPrima Sport PPV 1
russiaRussiaOkko Sport
singaporeSingaporebeIN SPORTS MAX
slovakiaSlovakiaVoyo
south-africaSouth-africaSuperSport OTT 3, SuperSport Variety 2
south-americaSouth-americaESPN 6 South, ViX Latin America
south-koreaSouth-koreaSPOTV Now
spainSpainM+ Liga de Campeones 2
swedenSwedenViaplay
thailandThailandbeIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
turkeyTurkeyTabii
ukraineUkraineMEGOGO Futbol 7, MEGOGO Ukraine
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomAmazon Prime Video, Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 7, TNT Sports Extra
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaCBS Sports Network, Paramount+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+, Inter
vietnamVietnamON Plus

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.080.96
Ball Possession
52%48%
Total shots
137
Shots on target
83
Big Chances
23
Corner Kicks
40
Passes
86% (458/531)85% (411/486)
Yellow Cards
12
Expected Goals (xG)
1.080.96
xG on target (xGOT)
2.011.26
Total shots
137
Shots on target
83
Shots off target
33
Blocked Shots
21
Shots inside the Box
74
Shots outside the Box
62
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
23
Corner Kicks
40
Touches in opposition box
2415
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
33
Free Kicks
1514
Passes
86% (458/531)85% (411/486)
Long passes
53% (31/59)50% (26/52)
Passes in final third
70% (83/118)67% (62/93)
Crosses
9% (1/11)25% (4/16)
Expected assists (xA)
0.690.28
Throw-ins
1814
Fouls
1415
Tackles
60% (9/15)60% (15/25)
Duels won
4955
Clearances
1722
Interceptions
156
Errors leading to shot
11
Errors leading to goal
01
Goalkeeper Saves
24
xGOT faced
1.262.01
Goals prevented
0.26-1.99

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 28', 1 - 0, Svensson D. ⚽, Adeyemi K. (A),
  • 44', Paredes A. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (3 - 1)
  • 46', Williams I. ↓, Guruzeta G. ↑,
  • 46', Vivian D. ↓, Laporte A. ↑,
  • 46', Jauregizar M. ↓, Ruiz de Galarreta I. ↑,
  • 50', 2 - 0, Chukwuemeka C. ⚽, Guirassy S. (A),
  • 59', Gorosabel A. 🟨,
  • 61', 2 - 1, Guruzeta G. ⚽,
  • 63', Adeyemi K. ↓, Beier M. ↑,
  • 63', Chukwuemeka C. ↓, Brandt J. ↑,
  • 63', Gomez U. ↓, Serrano N. ↑,
  • 69', Bellingham J. ↓, Nmecha F. ↑,
  • 70', Sule N. ↓, Schlotterbeck N. ↑,
  • 80', Sannadi M. ↓, Sanchez I. ↑,
  • 82', 3 - 1, Guirassy S. ⚽, Sabitzer M. (A),
  • 87', Guirassy S. ↓, Silva F. ↑,
  • 89', Beier M. 🟨,
  • 90+1', 4 - 1, Brandt J. ⚽, Beier M. (A),

Chances of winning


Borussia Dortmund
73.3%		Draw
19.5%		Athletic Bilbao
7.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
51.6% 25.2% 23.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.5% 24.8% 22.9%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Borussia Dortmund has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+21.7%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Borussia Dortmund's performance.
  • Athletic Bilbao has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-16%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Athletic Bilbao might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Borussia Dortmund than the current prediction. (-20.8%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Borussia Dortmund that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (+15.6%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Athletic Bilbao could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
    •

    Borussia Dortmund - Athletic Bilbao Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 1.61 ↓
    (1.86)    		 6.72 ↑
    (3.82)    		 19.22 ↑
    (4.13)    		 -17.9%
    (4.1%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
    What is the prediction for Borussia Dortmund - Athletic Bilbao?
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • AH -0.75 - Borussia D (2.11) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • DC - Borussia D (1.23) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .
    • O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .
    • O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .
    • O/U 2, 2nd Half - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH 0 - Borussia D (1.30) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • AH 0, 1st Half - Borussia D (1.40) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -0.5 - Borussia D (1.74) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH 0, 2nd Half - Borussia D (1.69) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +0.25 - Borussia D (1.25) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +1.75 - Borussia D (1.03) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +1.5 - Borussia D (1.05) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +1.25 - Borussia D (1.06) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +1 - Borussia D (1.03) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +0.75 - Borussia D (1.12) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +0.5 - Borussia D (1.22) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -1 - Borussia D (2.31) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • 1X2, 1st Half - Borussia D (2.32) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Users Predictions: Borussia Dortmund will win (93 of 102 users predict this - 91.18%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 85.68% – 96.68%. The data is statistically significant.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Borussia Dortmund will win (55 of 62 users predict this - 88.71%) 🥇 Gold Tip.
  • Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 80 high ROI users predict this event. Borussia D (votes: 72 - 90%). Athletic (votes: 3 - 3.8%). Tie (votes: 5 - 6.3%).
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • Borussia D has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).
    • Athletic is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
    • Borussia D may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • In this match, Borussia D is a strong favorite.
    • There will not play in Borussia D: Anselmino A. (Muscle Injury) Campbell C. (International duty) Can E. (Groin Injury) Drewes P. (Inactive) Duranville J. (Shoulder Injury) Ozcan S. (Inactive) Sule N. (Calf Injury)
    • There will not play in Athletic: Alvarez Y. (Doping) Berenguer A. (Toe Injury) Egiluz U. (Knee Injury) Izeta (Inactive) Prados Diaz B. (Knee Injury) Vesga M. (Muscle Injury) Williams N. (Groin Injury)
    • We predict that Borussia D will win today's game, with odds of 1.83.
    • In the last 1 head-to-head match, Borussia D won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.
    • Including home match between the teams, Borussia D won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.
    Latest results of Borussia Dortmund
    27.09.2025 Mainz - Borussia Dortmund 0:2 ✺
    21.09.2025 Borussia Dortmund - Wolfsburg 1:0 ✺
    16.09.2025 Juventus - Borussia Dortmund 4:4 ✺
    13.09.2025 Heidenheim - Borussia Dortmund 0:2 ✺
    31.08.2025 Borussia Dortmund - Union Berlin 3:0 ✺
    Latest results of Athletic Bilbao
    27.09.2025 Villarreal - Athletic Bilbao 1:0 ✺
    23.09.2025 Athletic Bilbao - Girona 1:1 ✺
    20.09.2025 Valencia - Athletic Bilbao 2:0 ✺
    16.09.2025 Athletic Bilbao - Arsenal 0:2 ✺
    13.09.2025 Athletic Bilbao - Deportivo Alavés 0:1 ✺
    Draw
    Play Offs

    1/16-finals
    1Monaco (21)PSG (11)2 : 2, 2 : 3
    2Chelsea (6)Bye
    3Galatasaray (20)Juventus (13)2 : 3, 5 : 2
    4Liverpool (3)Bye
    5Benfica (24)Real Madrid (9)1 : 2, 0 : 1
    6Manchester City (8)Bye
    7Dortmund (17)Atalanta (15)1 : 4, 2 : 0
    8Bayern Munich (2)Bye
    9Qarabag (22)Newcastle (12)2 : 3, 1 : 6
    10Barcelona (5)Bye
    11Club Brugge KV (19)Atl. Madrid (14)1 : 4, 3 : 3
    12Tottenham (4)Bye
    13Bodo/Glimt (23)Inter (10)2 : 1, 3 : 1
    14Sporting CP (7)Bye
    15Olympiacos Piraeus (18)Bayer Leverkusen (16)0 : 0, 0 : 2
    16Arsenal (1)Bye

    1/8-finals
    1PSG (11)Chelsea (6)3 : 0, 5 : 2
    2Galatasaray (20)Liverpool (3)0 : 4, 1 : 0
    3Real Madrid (9)Manchester City (8)2 : 1, 3 : 0
    4Atalanta (15)Bayern Munich (2)1 : 4, 1 : 6
    5Newcastle (12)Barcelona (5)2 : 7, 1 : 1
    6Atl. Madrid (14)Tottenham (4)2 : 3, 5 : 2
    7Bodo/Glimt (23)Sporting CP (7)0 : 5, 3 : 0
    8Bayer Leverkusen (16)Arsenal (1)0 : 2, 1 : 1

    Quarter-finals
    1PSG (11)Liverpool (3)
    2Real Madrid (9)Bayern Munich (2)
    3Barcelona (5)Atl. Madrid (14)
    4Sporting CP (7)Arsenal (1)

    Semi-finals
    1TBD #1TBD #2
    2TBD #3TBD #4

    Final
    1TBD #1TBD #2
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