Result
3:1
07/03/2026 at 16:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Carioca - Taca Rio - Final
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Premiere |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.29 | 1.09 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 47% | 53% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (334/395) | 83% (362/434) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.29 | 1.09 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.74 | 1.03 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 8 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 8 | 11 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 10 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 25 | 23 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 13 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (334/395) | 83% (362/434) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 62% (33/53) | 50% (26/52) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 68% (63/93) | 73% (61/83) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 27% (3/11) | 32% (6/19) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.75 | 0.81 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 22 | 17 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 13 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 56% (5/9) | 56% (10/18) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 39 | 45 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 15 | 9 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 9 | 6 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.03 | 2.74 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.03 | -0.26 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 10', Kadu 🟨,
- 17', 1 - 0, Edenilson ⚽, Arthur Cabral (A),
- 34', Dioguinho ↓, Kauan Guilherme ↑,
- 2nd Half (2 - 1)
- 46', Douglas Lima ↓, Patryck ↑,
- 51', 2 - 0, Caio Valle ⚽, Villalba Jaume L. M. (A),
- 58', 3 - 0, Correa J. (Penalty Awarded),
- 67', Walber ↓, Garrinsha ↑,
- 67', Kadu ↓, Welington Zaru ↑,
- 68', Edenilson ↓, Marquinhos ↑,
- 74', 3 - 1, Luizinho ⚽, Welington Zaru (A),
- 76', Caio Valle ↓, Arthur Izaque ↑,
- 76', Nathan Fernandes ↓, Hernandez J. ↑,
- 85', Villalba Jaume L. M. ↓, Ponte M. ↑,
- 85', Arthur Cabral ↓, Newton ↑,
- 89', Pedro China ↓, Marcelinho ↑,
- 90+3', Welington Zaru 🟨,
Chances of winning
Botafogo RJ
62.3% | Draw
25.2% | Bangu
12.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Botafogo RJ has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)Bangu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Botafogo RJ than the current prediction. (+4.3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bangu than the current prediction. (+0.1%)
Botafogo RJ - Bangu Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.47 ↑
(1.42) |
3.64 ↓
(4.28) |
7.35 ↑
(7.25) |
9%
(7.6%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Botafogo won 5.
- Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
- Bangu may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Botafogo is the obvious favorite.
- In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Botafogo won 10 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 20:1. (average 1.4:0.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Botafogo won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 13:1. (average 1.3:0.1).
How many head-to-head matches has Botafogo RJ won against Bangu?
Botafogo RJ has won 4 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Bangu won against Botafogo RJ?
Bangu has won 0 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Botafogo RJ - Bangu were as follows:
24.01.2026
Botafogo RJ
-
Bangu
2:0
26.01.2025
Botafogo RJ
-
Bangu
2:0
20.01.2024
Botafogo RJ
-
Bangu
2:0
11.02.2023
Botafogo RJ
-
Bangu
2:0
Latest results of Botafogo RJ
Draw
Taca Guanabara - Play OffsQuarter-finals| 1 | Fluminense | Bangu | 3 : 1 |
| 2 | Vasco | Volta Redonda | 2 : 1 |
| 3 | Botafogo RJ | Flamengo RJ | 1 : 2 |
| 4 | Madureira | Boavista | 2 : 1 |
Semi-finals| 1 | Fluminense | Vasco | 1 : 1, 1 : 0 |
| 2 | Flamengo RJ | Madureira | 8 : 0, 3 : 0 |
Final| 1 | Fluminense | Flamengo RJ | 0 : 1 |
