Result
1:0
01/02/2026 at 18:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Paulista - Round 6
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Caze TV, Claro TV+, HBO Max, Sky+, TV Record, Vivo Play, Zapping |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.75 | 0.77 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 39% | 61% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 75% (211/280) | 84% (386/457) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 8 | 2 |
| Red cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.75 | 0.77 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.62 | 0.48 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 9 | 8 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 7 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 13 | 20 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 16 | 15 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 75% (211/280) | 84% (386/457) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 48% (29/60) | 52% (35/67) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 57% (48/84) | 67% (78/116) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 29% (5/17) | 18% (3/17) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.47 | 0.48 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 16 | 14 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 15 | 16 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 82% (9/11) | 70% (7/10) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 43 | 43 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 25 | 10 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.48 | 0.62 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.48 | -0.38 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 32', Matheus Sales 🟨,
- 33', Hygor 🟨,
- 45', Maciel L. 🟨,
- 45+3', Larson 🟨,
- 45+4', Gabriel Inocencio 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Matheus Sales ↓, Everton Morelli ↑,
- 50', 1 - 0, Maciel L. ⚽,
- 54', Vilar 🟨,
- 62', Benedetti ↓, Marlon Freitas ↑,
- 62', Larson ↓, Andreas Pereira ↑,
- 62', Erick Bele ↓, Lopez J. ↑,
- 64', Vilar 🟨,
- 66', Riquelme Fillipi ↓, Sosa R. ↑,
- 67', Luighi ↓, Allan Elias ↑,
- 67', Kelvin ↓, Carlao ↑,
- 80', Rafael Gava ↓, Marcio Maranhao ↑,
- 80', Jefferson Nem ↓, Jonathan ↑,
- 82', Sosa R. 🟨,
- 89', Hygor ↓, Guilherme Queiroz ↑,
- 90+3', Victor Souza 🟨,
- 90+4', Marcio Maranhao 🟨,
Chances of winning
Botafogo SP
15.6% | Draw
24.3% | Palmeiras
60.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Botafogo SP has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)Palmeiras has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Botafogo SP than the current prediction. (-0.6%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (+2.4%)
Botafogo SP - Palmeiras Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
6.05 ↓
(6.09) |
3.81 ↓
(4.01) |
1.54 ↑
(1.52) |
7.7%
(7.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
Preview Facts
- An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 13 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Botafogo SP won 0.
- Botafogo SP has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Palmeiras is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- In this match, Palmeiras is the clear favorite.
- There will not play in Botafogo SP: Hygor
(Inactive)
Jeferson
(Injury)
Wallace
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Palmeiras: Felipe Anderson
(Inactive)
Figueiredo
(Inactive)
Lucas Evangelista
(Hamstring Injury)
Paulinho
(Leg Injury)
- In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Botafogo SP won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 5:16. (average 0.4:1.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Botafogo SP won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:5. (average 0.5:0.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Botafogo SP won against Palmeiras?
Botafogo SP has won 0 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Palmeiras won against Botafogo SP?
Palmeiras has won 4 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Botafogo SP - Palmeiras were as follows:
20.02.2025
Palmeiras
-
Botafogo SP
3:1
23.05.2024
Botafogo SP
-
Palmeiras
0:0
02.05.2024
Palmeiras
-
Botafogo SP
2:1
09.03.2024
Palmeiras
-
Botafogo SP
1:0
19.01.2023
Botafogo SP
-
Palmeiras
0:1
Latest results of Botafogo SP
Latest results of Palmeiras
Draw
Play OffsQuarter-finals| 1 | Novorizontino (1) | Santos (8) | 2 : 1 |
| 2 | Portuguesa (4) | Corinthians (5) | 1 : 2 |
| 3 | Palmeiras (2) | Capivariano (7) | 4 : 0 |
| 4 | Bragantino (3) | Sao Paulo (6) | 1 : 2 |
Semi-finals| 1 | Novorizontino (1) | Corinthians (5) | |
| 2 | Palmeiras (2) | Sao Paulo (6) | |
Final
