Result
4:0
26/10/2025 at 16:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 9
- Referee: Macedo C. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Albania | Tring Sport 2 |
 Angola | Z Sports 1 |
 Brazil | Disney+, Xsports |
 Bulgaria | Ring, Voyo |
 Croatia | SportKlub 2 |
 Cyprus | Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8 |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 France | beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Free |
 Germany | Sportdigital FUSSBALL |
 Greece | COSMOTE Sport 3 |
 Kosovo | Arena Premium 3 |
 Lithuania | Sport 1 |
 Portugal | Sport TV2 |
 Serbia | Arena Premium 3 |
 Switzerland | Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV |
 Turkey | Tivibu Spor 2 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine |
 World | Triller TV+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.71 | 0.18 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 60% | 40% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 3 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 88% (484/552) | 81% (294/361) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.71 | 0.18 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 4.06 | 0.43 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 3 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 1 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 9 | 2 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 23 | 6 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 16 | 16 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 88% (484/552) | 81% (294/361) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 45% (23/51) | 57% (29/51) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 68% (89/130) | 60% (30/50) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 38% (3/8) | 38% (3/8) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.50 | 0.31 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 16 | 14 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 16 | 16 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 63% (5/8) | 50% (6/12) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 43 | 39 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 14 | 23 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 11 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.43 | 4.06 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.43 | 0.06 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 0)
- 5', 1 - 0, Horta R. ⚽,
- 8', 2 - 0, Lagerbielke G. ⚽,
- 42', Sousa D. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (2 - 0)
- 46', Miguel Sousa ↓, Nsona K. ↑,
- 48', 3 - 0, Dorgeles M. ⚽,
- 55', Goulart J. 🟨,
- 57', 4 - 0, Zalazar R. (Pen),
- 58', Gorby ↓, Moutinho J. ↑,
- 58', Horta R. ↓, Gabriel Moscardo ↑,
- 59', Rocha Livramento D. ↓, Cassiano ↑,
- 59', Perez S. ↓, Mohamed I. ↑,
- 70', Gomez V. ↓, da Rocha Y. ↑,
- 70', Lelo L. ↓, Martinez G. ↑,
- 70', Livolant J. ↓, Severina X. ↑,
- 78', Nhaga R. ↓, Oukili Y. ↑,
- 80', Zalazar R. 🟨,
- 80', Mohamed I. 🟨,
- 81', Zalazar R. ↓, Pascoal F. ↑,
Chances of winning
Braga
76.5% | Draw
15.9% | Casa Pia
7.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Braga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.2%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Braga's performance.Casa Pia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Braga than the current prediction. (-5.8%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Braga that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Casa Pia than the current prediction. (+3.9%)
Braga - Casa Pia Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.34 ↓
(1.4) |
7.06 ↑
(4.55) |
15.44 ↑
(7.76) |
-4.4%
(6.6%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Braga - Casa Pia?
Users Predictions:
21 users predict this event. Braga will win (votes: 19 - 90.5%). Casa Pia will win (votes: 2 - 9.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Braga: 78% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Braga will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 10 and 14).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Braga won 2.
- Braga is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Casa Pia has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Casa Pia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Braga is the undeniable favorite.
- There will not play in Braga: Grillitsch F.
(Inactive)
Niakate S.
(Inactive)
Noro J.
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
Oliveira P.
(Inactive)
Vitor Carvalho
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Casa Pia: Batista R.
(Injury)
Kiki
(Knee Injury)
Mendes C.
(Knee Injury)
Prieto K.
(Inactive)
Tchamba D.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Casa Pia: Conte A.
(Inactive)
Mandic I.
(Inactive)
Nsona K.
(Injury)
- In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Braga won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:10. (average 1.5:1.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Braga won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:7. (average 1.5:1.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Braga won against Casa Pia?
Braga has won 4 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Casa Pia won against Braga?
Casa Pia has won 3 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Braga - Casa Pia were as follows:
10.05.2025
Casa Pia
-
Braga
2:1
29.12.2024
Braga
-
Casa Pia
1:2
05.05.2024
Braga
-
Casa Pia
4:3
30.12.2023
Casa Pia
-
Braga
1:3
01.11.2023
Braga
-
Casa Pia
1:1
Latest results of Casa Pia
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 24 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 47:8 | 39 | 65 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 24 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 62:12 | 50 | 61 |
| 3 | Benfica | 24 | 17 | 7 | 0 | 51:14 | 37 | 58 |
| 4 | Braga | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 50:23 | 27 | 45 |
| 5 | Gil Vicente | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 35:23 | 12 | 40 |
| 6 | Famalicao | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 29:21 | 8 | 36 |
| 7 | Moreirense | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 30:34 | -4 | 34 |
| 8 | Estoril | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 46:42 | 4 | 33 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 28:35 | -7 | 32 |
| 10 | Alverca | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 24:39 | -15 | 27 |
| 11 | Arouca | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 32:52 | -20 | 26 |
| 12 | Estrela | 24 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 26:41 | -15 | 24 |
| 13 | Casa Pia | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 26:44 | -18 | 23 |
| 14 | Nacional | 24 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 28:36 | -8 | 21 |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 24 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 23:44 | -21 | 21 |
| 16 | Santa Clara | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 20:31 | -11 | 19 |
| 17 | Tondela | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 19:38 | -19 | 19 |
| 18 | AFS | 24 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 18:57 | -39 | 9 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
