Result
1:2
14/09/2025 at 11:15 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Ligue 1 - Round 4
- Referee: Dechepy B. (Fra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | Disney+ |
 Asia | beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4 |
 Austria | DAZN |
 Canada | beIN Connect |
 China | Migu |
 Croatia | Arena Sport 9, MAXtv To Go |
 Cyprus | Cablenet Sports 3, Cablenet Sports 3 |
 Czech-republic | Nova Sport 6, Oneplay |
 Denmark | Viaplay |
 Finland | Viaplay |
 France | Amazon Prime Video, DAZN France, Ligue 1+ 4, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV |
 Germany | Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch |
 Hong-kong | beIN SPORTS MAX |
 Japan | DAZN Japan |
 Mexico | Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV |
 Netherlands | Viaplay |
 North-central-america | Disney+ Caribbean |
 Norway | Viaplay |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 Russia | Okko Sport |
 Slovakia | Voyo |
 South-korea | Coupang Play |
 Sweden | Viaplay |
 Switzerland | DAZN Switzerland |
 Turkey | beIN Connect |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine |
 United-kingdom | Ligue 1 Pass |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | beIN Connect, Fanatiz |
 Venezuela | Disney+ |
 Vietnam | ON Plus, TV 360, VTVcab |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.39 | 1.53 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 46% | 54% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 24 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (319/403) | 83% (405/486) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.39 | 1.53 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.28 | 1.77 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 24 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 7 | 1 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 9 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 14 | 5 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 10 | 2 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 27 | 13 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (319/403) | 83% (405/486) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 53% (31/59) | 35% (25/71) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 57% (62/109) | 64% (47/73) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 25% (6/24) | 33% (3/9) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.81 | 0.66 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 27 | 19 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 10 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 67% (10/15) | 55% (12/22) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 42 | 60 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 18 | 40 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 9 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 2 | 7 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.77 | 2.28 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.23 | 1.28 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 2)
- 14', 0 - 1, Geubbels W. ⚽, Lopez M. (A),
- 23', Marchetti V. 🟨,
- 34', 0 - 2, Marchetti V. ⚽,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Marchetti V. ↓, Camara A. ↑,
- 46', Balde M. ↓, Mboup P. ↑,
- 51', Lees-Melou P. 🟨,
- 52', 1 - 2, Del Castillo R. (Pen),
- 60', Simon M. ↓, Gory A. ↑,
- 61', Geubbels W. ↓, Krasso J. ↑,
- 68', Makalou H. ↓, Dina Ebimbe J. ↑,
- 78', Doumbia K. ↓, Labeau Lascary R. ↑,
- 84', Otavio 🟥,
- 86', Locko B. ↓, Guindo D. ↑,
- 87', Kebbal I. ↓, Kolodziejczak T. ↑,
Chances of winning
Brest
39.2% | Draw
27.6% | Paris FC
33.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Brest has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Brest's form might have worsened.Paris FC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Paris FC's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brest than the current prediction. (+6.9%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Brest, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paris FC than the current prediction. (-5.7%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Paris FC, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Brest - Paris FC Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.4 ↑
(2.12) |
3.5 ↓
(3.57) |
2.95 ↓
(3.39) |
4.1%
(4.8%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Brest - Paris FC?
Users Predictions:
27 users predict this event. Brest will win (votes: 12 - 44.4%). Paris FC will win (votes: 13 - 48.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 7.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Paris FC: 29.3% – 66.9%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 11 high ROI users predict this event. Brest (votes: 4 - 36.4%). Paris FC (votes: 7 - 63.6%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Brest won 2.
- Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
- Brest may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
- There will not play in Brest: Labeau Lascary R.
(Knee Injury)
Magnetti H.
(Red Card)
Majecki R.
(Red Card)
Tousart L.
(Ankle Injury)
- There will not play in Paris FC: Hamel P.
(Hamstring Injury)
Ikone J.
(Lacking Match Fitness)
- There are questionable in Brest: Dina Ebimbe J.
(Ankle Injury)
- There are questionable in Paris FC: Traore H.
(Inactive)
- In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Brest won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:4. (average 0.9:0.5).
- Including home matches between the teams, Brest won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2. (average 1:0.5).
How many head-to-head matches has Brest won against Paris FC?
Brest has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Paris FC won against Brest?
Paris FC has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Brest - Paris FC were as follows:
Latest results of Paris FC
French Ligue 1 Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | PSG | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10:3 | 7 | 12 |
| 2 | Lyon | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7:3 | 4 | 12 |
| 3 | Lille | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 13:5 | 8 | 10 |
| 4 | Monaco | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8:5 | 3 | 9 |
| 5 | Strasbourg | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5:3 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | Rennes | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5:6 | -1 | 7 |
| 7 | Marseille | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9:4 | 5 | 6 |
| 8 | Nice | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5:5 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | Lens | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5:5 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | Toulouse | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7:8 | -1 | 6 |
| 11 | Paris FC | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7:9 | -2 | 6 |
| 12 | Angers | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3:4 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | Le Havre | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5:7 | -2 | 3 |
| 14 | Nantes | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1:3 | -2 | 3 |
| 15 | Auxerre | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3:6 | -3 | 3 |
| 16 | Lorient | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5:12 | -7 | 3 |
| 17 | Brest | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5:10 | -5 | 1 |
| 18 | Metz | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3:8 | -5 | 1 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )
Relegation ~ Ligue 2
