Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Rugby league Australian NRL Melbourne Storm - Brisbane Broncos
Result
22:26
05/10/2025 at 04:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • NRL - Play Offs - Final
  • Where to Watch on TV:
australiaAustralia9 HD, Nine
franceFrancebeIN Sports 1
germanyGermanySportdigital1+
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomSky Sports Mix, Sky Sports Mix

Match Stats

Tries
45
Conversion Goals
33
Conversion Goal Attempts
45
Penalty Goals
00
Penalty Goal Attempts
00
Goals %
7560
Dropped Goals
00
Dropped Goal Attempts
00
Total Runs
188192
Metres Run With Ball
17261752

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (22 - 12)
  • 3', Mariner D. (Try),
  • 4', Reynolds A. (Conversion Goal),
  • 8', Meaney N. (Try),
  • 9', Meaney N. (Conversion Goal),
  • 14', Katoa E. (Try),
  • 16', Meaney N. (Conversion Goal),
  • 22', Warbrick W. (Try),
  • 23', Meaney N. (Missed Conversion),
  • 31', Walsh R. (Try),
  • 32', Reynolds A. (Conversion Goal),
  • 34', Hughes J. (Try),
  • 36', Meaney N. (Conversion Goal),
  • 2nd Half (0 - 14)
  • 46', Shibasaki G. (Try),
  • 47', Reynolds A. (Missed Conversion),
  • 55', Mariner D. (Try),
  • 58', Shibasaki G. (Try),
  • 59', Walsh R. (Conversion Goal),

Chances of winning


Melbourne Storm
52.2%
Draw
4.5%
Brisbane Broncos
43.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
54.2% 4% 41.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.9% 3.9% 42.9%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Melbourne Storm has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)
  • Brisbane Broncos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Melbourne Storm than the current prediction. (+0.7%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brisbane Broncos than the current prediction. (-0.4%)
  • Melbourne Storm - Brisbane Broncos Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.78
    (1.72)
    20.41
    (23.5)
    2.15
    (2.23)
    7.5%
    (7.3%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 41.00
    • The most likely Handicap: 1 (-3)
    What is the prediction for Melbourne Storm - Brisbane Broncos?
  • Users Predictions: Brisbane Broncos will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 68.36%100%.
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 23:20.
  • Preview Facts
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Melbourne won 3.
    • Melbourne has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • Brisbane is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
    • Brisbane may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • Recently, Melbourne has had a series of home games.
    • In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Melbourne won 17 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 616:286. (average 30.8:14.3).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Melbourne won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 250:116. (average 27.8:12.9).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Melbourne Storm - Brisbane Broncos were as follows:
    04.09.2025 Brisbane Broncos - Melbourne Storm 30:14
    07.08.2025 Melbourne Storm - Brisbane Broncos 22:2
    05.09.2024 Brisbane Broncos - Melbourne Storm 12:50
    04.04.2024 Melbourne Storm - Brisbane Broncos 34:32
    08.09.2023 Brisbane Broncos - Melbourne Storm 26:0
    Latest results of Brisbane Broncos
    Draw
    Play Offs

    1/8-finals
    1Melbourne Storm (2)Canterbury Bulldogs (3)26 : 18
    3Canberra Raiders (1)Bye
    4Cronulla Sharks (5)Sydney Roosters (8)20 : 10
    5Canberra Raiders (1)Brisbane Broncos (4)28 : 29
    7Canterbury BulldogsBye
    8New Zealand Warriors (6)Penrith Panthers (7)8 : 24

    Quarter-finals
    1Melbourne Storm (2)Bye
    2Canberra Raiders (1)Cronulla Sharks (5)12 : 32
    3Brisbane Broncos (4)Bye
    4Canterbury Bulldogs (3)Penrith Panthers (7)26 : 46

    Semi-finals
    1Melbourne Storm (2)Cronulla Sharks (5)22 : 14
    2Brisbane Broncos (4)Penrith Panthers (7)16 : 14

    Final
    1Melbourne Storm (2)Brisbane Broncos (4)22 : 26