Result
1:1
21/02/2026 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- League One - Round 34
- Referee: Stockbridge S. (Eng)
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.47 | 0.72 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 56% | 44% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 69% (266/385) | 61% (179/292) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.47 | 0.72 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.61 | 0.96 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 6 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 15 | 22 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 18 | 15 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 69% (266/385) | 61% (179/292) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 26% (22/84) | 30% (21/69) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 49% (49/101) | 50% (66/131) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 0% (0/9) | 18% (4/22) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.74 | 1.21 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 31 | 34 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 15 | 18 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 74% (17/23) | 50% (13/26) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 73 | 76 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 50 | 40 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 14 | 11 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.96 | 0.61 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.04 | -0.39 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 13', 1 - 0, Wells N. ⚽, Johnson J. (A),
- 29', Evans G. 🟨,
- 36', Palmer K. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 46', Palmer K. ↓, van den Berg D. ↑,
- 46', Armer J. ↓, Moon J. ↑,
- 61', Evans G. ↓, Krubally S. ↑,
- 61', McKiernan J. J. ↓, Cannon A. ↑,
- 69', Wells N. ↓, Cole D. ↑,
- 70', Morris S. ↓, Richards J. ↑,
- 74', Lofthouse K. 🟨,
- 80', Shade T. ↓, Adom K. ↑,
- 80', Sibbick T. ↓, Tavares F. ↑,
- 82', Keeley J. 🟨,
- 86', Kodua G. ↓, Lonwijk N. ↑,
- 89', Cannon A. 🟨,
- 89', van den Berg D. 🟨,
- 90+2', 1 - 1, Tavares F. ⚽, Godwin-Malife U. (A),
Chances of winning
Luton Town
52.6% | Draw
25.5% | Burton Albion
21.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Luton Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)Burton Albion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luton Town than the current prediction. (-10.1%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Luton Town that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Burton Albion than the current prediction. (+2.8%)
Luton Town - Burton Albion Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.79 ↑
(1.6) |
3.68 ↓
(3.75) |
4.23 ↓
(5) |
6.7%
(9.2%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Luton Town - Burton Albion?
Users Predictions:
Luton Town will win
(11 of 11 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Luton Town will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 9 and 19).
- Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
- Luton may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, Burton has had a series of home games.
- In this match, Luton is a strong favorite.
- There will not play in Luton: Adebayo E.
(Knee Injury)
Baptiste S.
(Knee Injury)
Walsh L.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Burton: Jones J.
(Foot Injury)
Webster C.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Luton: Bramall C.
(Inactive)
Lawrence E.
(Inactive)
Odoffin H.
(Inactive)
Sandal S.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Burton: Delap F.
(Inactive)
Revan S.
(Injury)
Williams D.
(Inactive)
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Luton won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:4. (average 1.2:0.8).
- Including home matches between the teams, Luton won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:1. (average 1:0.5).
How many head-to-head matches has Luton Town won against Burton Albion?
Luton Town has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Burton Albion won against Luton Town?
Burton Albion has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Luton Town - Burton Albion were as follows:
30.08.2025
Burton Albion
-
Luton Town
0:3
Latest results of Luton Town
Latest results of Burton Albion
English League One Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Lincoln | 39 | 25 | 9 | 5 | 74:34 | 40 | 84 |
| 2 | Cardiff | 39 | 23 | 8 | 8 | 73:41 | 32 | 77 |
| 3 | Bolton | 39 | 17 | 15 | 7 | 55:39 | 16 | 66 |
| 4 | Bradford City | 39 | 19 | 8 | 12 | 49:44 | 5 | 65 |
| 5 | Stockport County | 37 | 17 | 9 | 11 | 51:48 | 3 | 60 |
| 6 | Stevenage | 38 | 17 | 9 | 12 | 41:38 | 3 | 60 |
| 7 | Plymouth | 39 | 18 | 5 | 16 | 60:54 | 6 | 59 |
| 8 | Reading | 39 | 15 | 13 | 11 | 57:51 | 6 | 58 |
| 9 | Huddersfield | 39 | 16 | 9 | 14 | 59:51 | 8 | 57 |
| 10 | Wycombe | 39 | 15 | 11 | 13 | 55:43 | 12 | 56 |
| 11 | Luton | 39 | 15 | 10 | 14 | 52:49 | 3 | 55 |
| 12 | Peterborough | 38 | 15 | 5 | 18 | 57:52 | 5 | 50 |
| 13 | Barnsley | 37 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 59:60 | -1 | 50 |
| 14 | AFC Wimbledon | 38 | 14 | 8 | 16 | 49:55 | -6 | 50 |
| 15 | Mansfield | 37 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 47:41 | 6 | 49 |
| 16 | Leyton Orient | 38 | 14 | 6 | 18 | 55:62 | -7 | 48 |
| 17 | Doncaster | 38 | 13 | 8 | 17 | 41:59 | -18 | 47 |
| 18 | Burton | 39 | 12 | 10 | 17 | 44:54 | -10 | 46 |
| 19 | Wigan | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 41:51 | -10 | 45 |
| 20 | Exeter | 39 | 11 | 9 | 19 | 42:52 | -10 | 42 |
| 21 | Blackpool | 39 | 11 | 9 | 19 | 46:63 | -17 | 42 |
| 22 | Rotherham | 38 | 9 | 9 | 20 | 35:58 | -23 | 36 |
| 23 | Northampton | 39 | 9 | 8 | 22 | 33:56 | -23 | 35 |
| 24 | Port Vale | 36 | 7 | 10 | 19 | 29:49 | -20 | 31 |
Promotion ~ Championship
Promotion ~ League One (Play Offs: )
Relegation ~ League Two
