Luton Town vs Burton Albion – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

21/02/2026 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))

Kenilworth Road (Luton).

League One - Round 34
Referee: Stockbridge S. (Eng)

Match Stats


Expected goals (xG)
0.47	0.72
Ball possession
56%	44%
Total shots
5	7
Shots on target
2	1
Big chances
0	2
Corner kicks
1	6
Passes
69% (266/385)	61% (179/292)
Yellow cards
3	3
Expected goals (xG)
0.47	0.72
xG on target (xGOT)
0.61	0.96
Total shots
5	7
Shots on target
2	1
Shots off target
2	6
Blocked shots
1	0
Shots inside the box
3	4
Shots outside the box
2	3
Hit the woodwork
0	0
Headed goals
0	1
Big chances
0	2
Corner kicks
1	6
Touches in opposition box
15	22
Accurate through passes
1	0
Offsides
1	2
Free kicks
18	15
Passes
69% (266/385)	61% (179/292)
Long passes
26% (22/84)	30% (21/69)
Passes in final third
49% (49/101)	50% (66/131)
Crosses
0% (0/9)	18% (4/22)
Expected assists (xA)
0.74	1.21
Throw ins
31	34
Fouls
15	18
Tackles
74% (17/23)	50% (13/26)
Duels won
73	76
Clearances
50	40
Interceptions
14	11
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper saves
0	1
xGOT faced
0.96	0.61
Goals prevented
-0.04	-0.39

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 0)
13', 1 - 0, Wells N. ⚽, Johnson J. (A),
29', Evans G. 🟨,
36', Palmer K. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Palmer K. ↓, van den Berg D. ↑,
46', Armer J. ↓, Moon J. ↑,
61', Evans G. ↓, Krubally S. ↑,
61', McKiernan J. J. ↓, Cannon A. ↑,
69', Wells N. ↓, Cole D. ↑,
70', Morris S. ↓, Richards J. ↑,
74', Lofthouse K. 🟨,
80', Shade T. ↓, Adom K. ↑,
80', Sibbick T. ↓, Tavares F. ↑,
82', Keeley J. 🟨,
86', Kodua G. ↓, Lonwijk N. ↑,
89', Cannon A. 🟨,
89', van den Berg D. 🟨,
90+2', 1 - 1, Tavares F. ⚽, Godwin-Malife U. (A),

Highlights

Chances of winning

Luton Town
52.6%

Draw
25.5%

Burton Albion
21.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.3%

24.4%

18.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.5%

18.1%

24.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luton Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Burton Albion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luton Town than the current prediction. (-10.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Luton Town that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Burton Albion than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Luton Town - Burton Albion Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.79 ↑ (1.6)	3.68 ↓ (3.75)	4.23 ↓ (5)	6.7% (9.2%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

What is the prediction for Luton Town - Burton Albion?

Users Predictions: Luton Town will win (11 of 11 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Luton Town will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.

Preview Facts

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 9 and 19).
Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
Luton may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
Recently, Burton has had a series of home games.
In this match, Luton is a strong favorite.
There will not play in Luton: Adebayo E. (Knee Injury) Baptiste S. (Knee Injury) Walsh L. (Inactive)
There will not play in Burton: Jones J. (Foot Injury) Webster C. (Injury)
There are questionable in Luton: Bramall C. (Inactive) Lawrence E. (Inactive) Odoffin H. (Inactive) Sandal S. (Inactive)
There are questionable in Burton: Delap F. (Inactive) Revan S. (Injury) Williams D. (Inactive)
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Luton won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:4. (average 1.2:0.8).
Including home matches between the teams, Luton won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:1. (average 1:0.5).

How many head-to-head matches has Luton Town won against Burton Albion?

Luton Town has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Burton Albion won against Luton Town?

Burton Albion has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Luton Town - Burton Albion were as follows:

30.08.2025 Burton Albion - Luton Town 0:3

Latest results of Luton Town

18.02.2026 Wigan Athletic - Luton Town 1:0 ✺

14.02.2026 Cardiff City - Luton Town 3:1 ✺

07.02.2026 Luton Town - Bradford City 2:1 ✺

31.01.2026 Luton Town - Blackpool 1:0 ✺

27.01.2026 Huddersfield Town - Luton Town 1:0 ✺

Latest results of Burton Albion

17.02.2026 Burton Albion - Rotherham United 1:0 ✺

14.02.2026 Burton Albion - West Ham United 0:1 ✺

07.02.2026 Port Vale - Burton Albion 2:2 ✺

03.02.2026 Burton Albion - Doncaster Rovers 1:2 ✺

31.01.2026 Burton Albion - Cardiff City 2:2 ✺

English League One Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Cardiff	34	22	6	6	68:36	32	72
2	Lincoln	34	21	8	5	63:31	32	71
3	Bolton	35	16	13	6	50:34	16	61
4	Bradford City	34	17	7	10	43:38	5	58
5	Stockport County	34	16	8	10	47:43	4	56
6	Wycombe	35	14	11	10	50:36	14	53
7	Huddersfield	35	15	7	13	55:46	9	52
8	Reading	34	13	12	9	50:44	6	51
9	Stevenage	33	14	9	10	37:35	2	51
10	Luton	34	13	8	13	43:41	2	47
11	Peterborough	35	14	4	17	50:49	1	46
12	Plymouth	34	14	4	16	49:50	-1	46
13	Barnsley	32	12	8	12	53:54	-1	44
14	AFC Wimbledon	33	12	7	14	41:48	-7	43
15	Exeter	34	11	9	14	39:40	-1	42
16	Mansfield	33	10	11	12	39:37	2	41
17	Burton	35	10	10	15	39:50	-11	40
18	Doncaster	33	11	6	16	36:55	-19	39
19	Wigan	33	9	10	14	35:46	-11	37
20	Blackpool	34	10	7	17	40:54	-14	37
21	Leyton Orient	33	10	6	17	44:56	-12	36
22	Rotherham	34	9	8	17	33:47	-14	35
23	Northampton	35	9	8	18	31:47	-16	35
24	Port Vale	32	6	9	17	26:44	-18	27

      Promotion ~ Championship
      Promotion ~ League One (Play Offs: )
      Relegation ~ League Two